Wow, wow. Warships armed with expensive cruise missiles are not suitable for warfare, but only for intimidation by firing a few missiles

 

"A U.S. Navy destroyer can fire dozens of cruise missiles within minutes. Reloading the deadly warship back in port can take two months. In a war against China, that could be a fatal weakness.

To overcome the delay, Navy engineers pulled a 30-year-old crane out of storage, wired it up to computers, and used it to build a new prototype reloading system called the Transferrable Reload At-sea Method. TRAM, as it is known, promises to slash the time needed for missile reloading, potentially to just days.

"The ability to rearm at sea will be critical to any future conflict in the Pacific," said Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro after a recent test of TRAM off the California coast, to which The Wall Street Journal was granted exclusive access.

Until recently, the Navy didn't feel much need for speed in rearming its biggest missile-firing warships. They only occasionally launched large numbers of Tomahawk cruise missiles or other pricey projectiles.

Now, Pentagon strategists worry that if fighting broke out in the western Pacific -- potentially 5,000 miles from a secure Navy base -- destroyers, cruisers and other big warships would run out of vital ammunition within days, or maybe hours.

Seeking to plug that supply gap, Del Toro tasked commanders and engineers with finding ways to reload the fleet's launch systems at remote ports or even on the high seas.

Otherwise, U.S. ships might need to sail back to bases in Hawaii or California to do so -- putting them out of action for weeks.

Slow reloading has been causing the Navy headaches in the Red Sea. Warships deployed there to defend cargo ships from Houthi rebels in Yemen must sail through the Suez Canal and to ports in Greece or Spain to reload, leaving the fight for extended periods.

"We should have developed this capability fully decades ago," retired Navy Admiral James Stavridis said. "Again and again, after firing a significant load of Tomahawks . . . I had to pull my warships off the line to rearm," added Stavridis, a former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The Navy only reloads the launchers from solid ground or in sheltered harbors because it is a delicate operation. Engineers in the 1990s proposed systems for reloading at sea, but available technology wasn't precise enough to transfer missiles from a platform constantly in motion, such as a ship or floating dock.

The U.S.'s inability to restock missile launchers at sea is notable because America long ago performed engineering feats such as linking spacecraft orbiting the moon. The military routinely refuels military planes soaring above the clouds.

Engineers say that the ocean surface -- while more familiar -- presents uniquely vexing physics challenges because of currents, wind and the mix of air and water.

Now digital advances including 3-D printing, specialized radar and motion-detectors of the kind found in cellphones have allowed the Navy to revisit the idea. Newfound urgency is speeding up work toward a solution.

"We are transforming the way we fight," said Del Toro, on board the USNS Washington Chambers, a supply ship, during the TRAM test.

He watched as crews zip-lined a dummy missile container to the cruiser USS Chosin sailing alongside and as technicians operated the experimental crane to position the 20-foot-long box over the ship's launch cells.

Del Toro, whose term ends with the Biden administration, wants equipment like TRAM included in ship modernization work planned during the coming years.

Today, the only U.S. warships that can be sustained indefinitely at sea and continue fighting are its 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and nine smaller amphibious assault ships, none of which carry vertical missile silos.

TRAM could increase that number roughly fivefold, taking the total to around 100 warships without building a single new hull.

Until then, the Navy is seeking new rearming sites at friendly ports. In September, U.S. sailors and logisticians for the first time reloaded a missile on board the USS Dewey, a destroyer, at an allied naval base in Darwin, Australia.

In a war, ports the U.S. uses in Japan and Guam could be targeted by Chinese missiles, prompting the Navy to seek havens further away.

From the South China Sea, Darwin is a roughly 4 1/2-day journey under normal sailing conditions, compared with a roughly three-week journey to the U.S. West Coast.

Reloading at sea could slash that downtime even further, but it would be a dicey operation. Missiles in their boxes, which resemble slender shipping containers, can weigh more than 6,000 pounds. They must slide smoothly into tightfitting launch cells because jostling could damage delicate guidance systems -- or worse.

"These are supersonic rockets. There is a lot of fire and gas involved with this," said Cmdr. Nicholas Maruca, the Dewey's captain. "If you drop the missile, that's not good."

For decades, the Navy has provisioned its ships on the high seas by sending basic supplies across cables strung between them. It routinely refuels ships using hoses supported in this way.

The connections require the ships to sail at nearly identical speeds, maintaining a constant distance. The equipment is designed so connections can be severed instantly if needed, such as if attacked.

Loading a warship with dozens of missiles using a crane on the supply ship would be dangerously slow. TRAM is designed to make the process faster and safer.

Creating the TRAM mechanism was still challenging. To start work, Navy experts early this year pulled the mothballed 1990s prototype out of storage, disassembled it and drafted digital plans to reverse-engineer it, with help from some archived drawings.

Putting the new plans in a computer simulation, they located the mechanism's weakest points and added about 300 pounds of steel reinforcement, said Ryan Hayleck, the project's technical leader. The Chosin's deck also needed reinforcing to handle the new load.

Technicians wired up both ships and the crane with sensors to understand how all the elements moved and what stresses they faced, all with the aim of refining designs. Navy Chief Engineer Rear Admiral Peter Small said the scads of data couldn't have been collected through land-based tests and will guide the next steps." [1]

1. U.S. News: Navy Revamps Rearming Ships Amid New Threats --- Vessels now must return to ports for missiles. A change could speed process. Daniel Michaels aboard the USNS Washington Chambers; Mike Cherney aboard the USS Dewey; Cowan, Tonia.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Dec 2024: A.3.

Kaip JAV taikė tarifus visame pasaulyje

  „Kalbant apie tai, kaip JAV taiko tarifus, pirmiausia buvo Kinija, o vėliau ir visas pasaulis.

 

 Išrinktasis prezidentas Donaldas Trumpas nustatė, kad muitai Kinijai yra esminis jo pirmosios kadencijos bruožas. Prezidentas Bidenas dažniausiai laikėsi šių muitų ir nukreipė tarifų didinimą tokiems produktams, kaip puslaidininkiai ir elektrinės transporto priemonės.

 

 Nuo tada, kai 2018 m. Trumpas pradėjo didinti muitus Kinijai, vidutinė efektyvi tarifų norma Kinijos importui šoktelėjo nuo maždaug 3% iki maždaug 11%, rodo „Trade Partnership Worldwide“ rugsėjo mėn. JAV surašymo biuro duomenų analizė. Pasak įmonės, vidutinė efektyvi tarifo norma importui iš visų šalių padidėjo nuo daugiau, nei 1% iki daugiau, nei 2%.

 

 Dabar Trumpas neseniai pasiūlė papildomą 10% muitą visiems produktams iš Kinijos ir 25% tarifą visam Meksikos ir Kanados importui. Tai gali pakenkti JAV, Meksikos ir Kanados susitarimui, kurį jis pasirašė 2020 m., pagal kurį iš esmės buvo išlaikyta neapmuitinama prekyba tarp trijų šalių.

 

 Dėl aukštesnių tarifų Kinijos importo dalis iš JAV jau sumažėjo, o importas iš likusio pasaulio išaugo. Vis dėlto Kinija yra antra pagal dydį prekių tiekėja JAV.

 

 Tarifai yra mokesčiai, taikomi prekėms, kertančioms sieną. 

 

Tais atvejais, kai taikomi tarifai, JAV importuotojai paprastai sumoka muitus už užsienio prekes, atvykę į įvežimo uostus. JAV dažniausiai naudoja tarifus, kaip priemones tam tikroms pramonės šakoms apsaugoti ir kaip atsaką į kitų šalių prekybos kliūtis. Tarifai taip pat yra JAV vyriausybės pajamų šaltinis.

 

 Trumpo pereinamojo laikotarpio komandos atstovas Brianas Hughesas sakė: „Prezidentas Trumpas pažadėjo tarifų politiką, kuri apsaugotų Amerikos gamintojus ir dirbančius vyrus bei moteris nuo nesąžiningos užsienio kompanijų ir užsienio rinkų veiklos“.

 

 Bidenas praėjusią savaitę paragino Trumpą persvarstyti jo grasinimus įvesti muitus Meksikai ir Kanadai, perspėdamas, kad tai gali pakenkti santykiams su dviem artimais sąjungininkais.

 

 Vidutinės efektyvios tarifų normos apskaičiuojamos, muito pajamas matuojant procentais nuo importuojamų prekių vertės. Pavyzdžiui, 2023 m. JAV nupirko prekių iš Indijos už apie 84 milijardus dolerių, o importuotojai sumokėjo apie 2 milijardus dolerių muitų už šiuos produktus, todėl Indijos importo vidutinė veiksminga tarifo norma yra apie 2,4 %.

 

 Ekonomistai naudoja šią metriką, norėdami įvertinti, kaip tarifai taikomi prekių kategorijoms arba kilmės šalims, įvertinus importo verčių sudėtį ir tarifus.

 

 Kaina gali svyruoti, kai keičiasi importo derinys, net jei tarifų politika nepasikeitė. Mažėjant aukšto tarifo prekių importui ir didėjant mažo tarifo prekių importui, gali sumažėti bendras veiksmingas tam tikros kategorijos arba kilmės šalies tarifas.

 

 Paimkite Vietnamą. Vidutinė veiksminga tarifo norma Vietnamo importui sumažėjo nuo maždaug 7%, prieš Trumpui pradedant eiti pareigas, iki maždaug 4% neseniai. Remiantis TPW analize, Vietnamo dalis JAV importuojamame dideliais tarifais, pavyzdžiui, drabužiams ir avalynei, sumažėjo, o mažų tarifų, pavyzdžiui, mašinų ir elektronikos, importo dalis išaugo.

 

 Tarifai drabužiams buvo palyginti aukšti, dar prieš D. Trumpui pradedant eiti pareigas. Jam pirmininkaujant, vidutinė faktinė muito norma Kinijos drabužių importui išaugo nuo maždaug 16 % iki daugiau, nei 20 %, o likusioje pasaulio dalyje lygis išliko toks pat.

 

 Nebuvo lengva atskirti Kiniją nuo pasaulinių tiekimo grandinių. Kai kurios prekės, siunčiamos į JAV iš tokių vietų, kaip Pietryčių Azija, gaminamos Kinijos įmonėms priklausančiose gamyklose, o daugeliui mažesnėse šalyse pagamintų gaminių reikalingos medžiagos iš Kinijos tiekėjų.

 

 Be to, išaugo siuntos pagal prekybos nuostatą, leidžiančią įvežti be muito. Vadinamoji de minimis nuostata leidžia paketus, kurių turinys mažesnė, nei 800 dolerių, įvežti į šalį supaprastinta tvarka.

 

 Baldai yra viena kategorija, kurioje JAV išskiria Kiniją dėl tarifų. Amerikos importuotojai perka baldus iš likusio pasaulio be muito, tačiau moka vidutinį efektyvų tarifą Kinijos baldų importui, kuris yra maždaug 18%.

 

 JAV kompanijų priklausomybė nuo Kinijos baldų atžvilgiu pasikeitė dėl didesnių tarifų. Kinijos prekės 2015 m. sudarė daugiau, nei pusę, visų baldų importo doleriais. Dabar jų yra mažiau, nei trečdalis.

 

 Puslaidininkiams paprastai nebuvo taikomi tarifai iki 2018 m., tačiau per pastaruosius kelerius metus jie tapo nerimo tašku dėl prekybos ir nacionalinio saugumo. Vidutinė efektyvi tarifų norma puslaidininkiams iš Kinijos pakilo iki daugiau, nei 20 %, valdant Trumpui ir toliau kilo, valdant Bidenui, kuris nurodė savo prekybos atstovui iki 2025 m. padidinti tarifus iki 50 %.

 

 Kinijos puslaidininkių importo dalis sumažėjo, tačiau JAV bendrovės vis dar perka daugiau puslaidininkių iš likusio pasaulio.

 

 Naujausi Trumpo grasinimai, jei jie bus įgyvendinti, gali padidinti muitų spektrą importui. Ernie Tedeschi, Jeilio universiteto Biudžeto laboratorijos ekonomikos direktorius ir buvęs Bideno administracijos ekonomistas, apskaičiavo, kad naujasis Trumpo įsipareigojimas dėl tarifų padidintų vidutinį efektyvų tarifą iki maždaug 10%, o tai būtų aukščiausias lygis nuo 1940-ųjų." [1]

 

1. U.S. News: How U.S. Wields Tariffs Around the Globe. Miao, Hannah.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Dec 2024: A.2.

How U.S. Wielded Tariffs Around the Globe

"When it comes to how the U.S. wields tariffs, there was China and then the rest of the world.

President-elect Donald Trump made tariffs on China a defining feature of his first term. President Biden mostly kept those duties in place -- and directed tariff increases on products like semiconductors and electric vehicles.

Since Trump began raising tariffs on China in 2018, the average effective tariff rate on Chinese imports has jumped from around 3% to roughly 11%, according to Trade Partnership Worldwide's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data as of September. The average effective tariff rate on imports from all countries rose from more than 1% to more than 2%, according to the firm.

Now Trump recently proposed an additional 10% tariff on all products from China and a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports. That could upend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement he signed in 2020 that maintained largely duty-free trade between the three countries.

Under higher tariff levels, China's share of U.S. imports has already waned, while imports from the rest of the world have risen. Still, China is the U.S.'s second-largest supplier of goods.

Tariffs are taxes placed on goods crossing a border. In cases where tariffs apply, U.S. importers generally pay duties on foreign goods upon arrival at ports of entry. The U.S. largely uses tariffs as tools to protect certain industries and as a response to other countries' trade barriers. Tariffs are also a source of revenue for the U.S. government.

Brian Hughes, a spokesman for Trump's transition team, said, "President Trump has promised tariff policies that protect the American manufacturers and working men and women from the unfair practices of foreign companies and foreign markets."

Biden last week urged Trump to reconsider his threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, warning that they could undermine relations with the two close allies.

Average effective tariff rates are calculated by measuring customs duty revenue as a percentage of the value of the imported goods. For example, the U.S. bought about $84 billion worth of goods from India in 2023 and importers paid about $2 billion in customs duties on those products, leading to an average effective tariff rate of around 2.4% for Indian imports.

Economists use the metric to gauge how tariffs are applied across categories of goods or countries of origin, weighted by the composition of import values and tariff rates.

The rate can fluctuate as the mix of imports shifts, even if tariff policies haven't changed. Decreasing imports of high-tariff goods and increasing imports of low-tariff goods can bring the overall effective tariff rate down for a given category or source country.

Take Vietnam. The average effective tariff rate on Vietnamese imports dropped from about 7% before Trump took office to around 4% recently. Peeking under the hood, Vietnam's share of U.S. imports with high tariffs -- like apparel and footwear -- fell while its share of imports with low tariffs -- like machinery and electronics -- grew, according to TPW's analysis.

Tariffs on apparel were relatively high even before Trump took office. Under his presidency, the average effective duty rate on Chinese apparel imports climbed from around 16% to more than 20%, while levels stayed about the same for the rest of the world.

It hasn't been easy to disentangle China from global supply chains. Some goods shipped to the U.S. from places such as Southeast Asia are made in factories owned by Chinese companies, while many products made in smaller countries require materials from Chinese suppliers.

Plus, shipments under a trade provision that allows duty-free entry have surged. The so-called de minimis provision allows packages with contents under $800 in value to enter the country under a simplified procedure.

Furniture is one category in which the U.S. singles out China for tariffs. American importers buy furniture from the rest of the world largely duty-free, but pay an average effective tariff rate on Chinese furniture imports of around 18%.

U.S. companies' dependence on China for furniture has shifted under higher tariffs. Chinese goods in 2015 made up more than half of all furniture imports on a dollar basis. Now they are less than a third.

Semiconductors generally didn't face tariffs before 2018, but in the past several years have become a flashpoint in concerns about trade and national security. The average effective tariff rate on semiconductors from China shot up to more than 20% under Trump and continued to climb under Biden, who directed his trade representative to lift tariffs to 50% by 2025.

China's share of semiconductor imports has declined, but U.S. companies keep buying more semiconductors from the rest of the world.

Trump's most recent threats, if enacted, could add tariffs to a broader range of imports. Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University and a former Biden administration economist, estimates that Trump's new tariff pledge would raise the average effective tariff rate to around 10%, which would be the highest level since the 1940s." [1]

1. U.S. News: How U.S. Wields Tariffs Around the Globe. Miao, Hannah.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Dec 2024: A.2.