"When it comes to how the U.S. wields tariffs, there was China and then the rest of the world.
President-elect Donald Trump made tariffs on China a defining feature of his first term. President Biden mostly kept those duties in place -- and directed tariff increases on products like semiconductors and electric vehicles.
Since Trump began raising tariffs on China in 2018, the average effective tariff rate on Chinese imports has jumped from around 3% to roughly 11%, according to Trade Partnership Worldwide's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data as of September. The average effective tariff rate on imports from all countries rose from more than 1% to more than 2%, according to the firm.
Now Trump recently proposed an additional 10% tariff on all products from China and a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports. That could upend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement he signed in 2020 that maintained largely duty-free trade between the three countries.
Under higher tariff levels, China's share of U.S. imports has already waned, while imports from the rest of the world have risen. Still, China is the U.S.'s second-largest supplier of goods.
Tariffs are taxes placed on goods crossing a border. In cases where tariffs apply, U.S. importers generally pay duties on foreign goods upon arrival at ports of entry. The U.S. largely uses tariffs as tools to protect certain industries and as a response to other countries' trade barriers. Tariffs are also a source of revenue for the U.S. government.
Brian Hughes, a spokesman for Trump's transition team, said, "President Trump has promised tariff policies that protect the American manufacturers and working men and women from the unfair practices of foreign companies and foreign markets."
Biden last week urged Trump to reconsider his threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, warning that they could undermine relations with the two close allies.
Average effective tariff rates are calculated by measuring customs duty revenue as a percentage of the value of the imported goods. For example, the U.S. bought about $84 billion worth of goods from India in 2023 and importers paid about $2 billion in customs duties on those products, leading to an average effective tariff rate of around 2.4% for Indian imports.
Economists use the metric to gauge how tariffs are applied across categories of goods or countries of origin, weighted by the composition of import values and tariff rates.
The rate can fluctuate as the mix of imports shifts, even if tariff policies haven't changed. Decreasing imports of high-tariff goods and increasing imports of low-tariff goods can bring the overall effective tariff rate down for a given category or source country.
Take Vietnam. The average effective tariff rate on Vietnamese imports dropped from about 7% before Trump took office to around 4% recently. Peeking under the hood, Vietnam's share of U.S. imports with high tariffs -- like apparel and footwear -- fell while its share of imports with low tariffs -- like machinery and electronics -- grew, according to TPW's analysis.
Tariffs on apparel were relatively high even before Trump took office. Under his presidency, the average effective duty rate on Chinese apparel imports climbed from around 16% to more than 20%, while levels stayed about the same for the rest of the world.
It hasn't been easy to disentangle China from global supply chains. Some goods shipped to the U.S. from places such as Southeast Asia are made in factories owned by Chinese companies, while many products made in smaller countries require materials from Chinese suppliers.
Plus, shipments under a trade provision that allows duty-free entry have surged. The so-called de minimis provision allows packages with contents under $800 in value to enter the country under a simplified procedure.
Furniture is one category in which the U.S. singles out China for tariffs. American importers buy furniture from the rest of the world largely duty-free, but pay an average effective tariff rate on Chinese furniture imports of around 18%.
U.S. companies' dependence on China for furniture has shifted under higher tariffs. Chinese goods in 2015 made up more than half of all furniture imports on a dollar basis. Now they are less than a third.
Semiconductors generally didn't face tariffs before 2018, but in the past several years have become a flashpoint in concerns about trade and national security. The average effective tariff rate on semiconductors from China shot up to more than 20% under Trump and continued to climb under Biden, who directed his trade representative to lift tariffs to 50% by 2025.
China's share of semiconductor imports has declined, but U.S. companies keep buying more semiconductors from the rest of the world.
Trump's most recent threats, if enacted, could add tariffs to a broader range of imports. Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University and a former Biden administration economist, estimates that Trump's new tariff pledge would raise the average effective tariff rate to around 10%, which would be the highest level since the 1940s." [1]
1. U.S. News: How U.S. Wields Tariffs Around the Globe. Miao, Hannah. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Dec 2024: A.2.
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