The Dangers of the Ending Globalization: More Expensive Avocados. Oh My...

"Supply-chain upheavals. Pricier avocados. Higher heating bills. And a happier U.S. steel industry.

President Trump says he will levy 25% tariffs on goods this month from America's two top trade partners, Mexico and Canada, unless they both stop unauthorized migrants and drugs from entering the U.S. He also has threatened an additional 10% tariff on goods from China -- the nation's third-biggest trading partner -- accusing it of flooding the U.S. with fentanyl.

Trump also has described tariffs as a tool to protect and expand U.S. manufacturing.

Tariffs on the top three trading partners -- not including other levies the president promised on Friday -- would ripple through the economy, affecting everything from grocery prices to the steel and energy industries. Businesses are already making plans for how to respond.

Here is what to expect:

Confusion

North American businesses have gotten used to decades of tariff-free trade mandated by the North American Free Trade Agreement, and its 2020 successor, the United States Mexico Canada Agreement, USMCA.

So some confusion is likely to follow the imposition of tariffs. Long lines of trucks could back up on bridges in Texas and Detroit if the rules aren't immediately clear, delaying deliveries.

Higher inflation

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed that consumer prices rose 2.6% in December over a year earlier. A 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico would bring the inflation rate up to about 3.2%, keeping it well above the Fed's 2% target, according to Capital Economics, an analysis firm.

The Trump administration has played down the risk of inflation and said that higher tariffs would bring more revenue to federal coffers.

Pricier groceries

Grocery-price increases could be the inflation consumers notice first , economists say. Mexico provides about half of U.S. fresh produce imports and is a particularly important supplier in the winter, according to Ed Gresser, a former assistant U.S. trade representative now working at the Progressive Policy Institute. More than 80% of U.S. avocados come from Mexico, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department. Canada is a big supplier of everything from kidney beans to cherry tomatoes.

Auto industry

Domestic and foreign automakers have built a complex web of factories all over the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Parts and half-finished vehicles sometimes cross the northern or southern border several times before production is complete. Hitting each of those import crossings with a 25% tariff would raise costs and possibly cause automakers to raise prices.

Some auto-parts manufacturers in Mexico and Canada are adding overtime shifts and stepping up deliveries to the U.S. in efforts to get ahead of tariffs, while others are considering moving some manufacturing lines to the U.S., said Ambrose Conroy, chief executive of the consulting firm Seraph.

Steel-industry

The steel-and-aluminum sector has long called for protection against low-cost competitors overseas, and likely would applaud stiff tariffs.

A coalition of domestic producers last week urged Trump to impose new tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum. They argued that Mexico's producers were flooding the U.S. market with steel and aluminum in violation of Mexican commitments, leading several U.S. plants to close or idle.

Domestic buyers of steel probably would have the opposite view. Trump's steel tariffs during his first term caused U.S. prices to rise.

Reshoring (maybe)

If a large chunk of manufacturing moves home permanently in response to tariffs, it would fulfill one of Trump's stated goals for the levies.

That's a big if, economists say. Trump is widely seen as using tariffs as a bargaining cudgel and not necessarily as a permanent tool, said Brad Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Energy-price rises

New tariffs could raise U.S. prices for gasoline, jet fuel and home heating oil, because Canada supplies about 60% of U.S. crude-oil imports and Mexico an additional 10%, Gresser said.

Together, those imports make up about 30% of the crude oil used in the U.S.

Many domestic refineries are set up to process Canadian oil, and adjusting away from it isn't a simple task, he added.

Costlier electronics

Trump has issued a variety of tariff threats toward China, including his latest suggestion of an extra 10% tariff starting Feb. 1. Consumer electronics, including smartphones and laptops, are one category that could face price increases." [1]

1. U.S. News: Trump's Tariff Plans Risk Jolting Economy --- Border chaos and higher prices for fruit, oil and other goods expected. Whalen, Jeanne.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Feb 2025: A2. 

 

Yra tik vienas realus būdas sustabdyti kapitalistus, bėgiojančius, ieškant žemiausios darbo jėgos kainos pasaulyje – įvesti jiems visiems tarifus. Tai ir vyksta dabar

 „JAV įves muitus kompiuterių lustams, farmacijos produktams, plienui, aliuminiui, variui, naftai ir dujoms jau vasario viduryje“, – penktadienį pareiškė prezidentas Trumpas, atverdamas naują frontą jo artėjančiuose antrosios kadencijos prekybos karuose.

 

 „Tai įvyks gana greitai“, – žurnalistams Ovaliame kabinete sakė D. Trumpas ir pridūrė, kad taip pat nori padidinti muitus Europos Sąjungai, kuri „su mumis elgėsi taip siaubingai“, nors nepatikslino, kada bus šie muitai arba kokio aukščio jie būtų.

 

 ES atstovas į prašymą pakomentuoti neatsakė.

 

 Paskelbimas dėl tų sektorių ir ES tarifų pasirodė atskirai nuo 25% tarifų Kanadai ir Meksikai bei 10% tarifų Kinijai, kurie, jo teigimu, bus įgyvendinti šeštadienį.

 

 Trumpo numatyti muitai papildys esamus tarifus šiems produktams, sakė jis, kartu pašalindamas bet kokį susirūpinimą dėl mokesčių, didinančių infliaciją ar siaubančių pasaulinių tiekimo grandinių.

 

 „Manau, kad gali būti tam tikrų laikinų, trumpalaikių sutrikimų ir žmonės tai supras“, – sakė D. Trumpas. „Tarifai padarys mus labai turtingus ir labai stiprius.”

 

 Trumpuoju laikotarpiu Meksikos, Kanados ir Kinijos lyderiai bei Amerikos kompanijų generaliniai direktoriai buvo per daug susitelkę į klausimą, ar prezidentas numatys palengvinimus didžiulėms pramonės šakoms, kurios pastarosiomis dienomis stipriai jį lobizavo. Jo komanda vedė derybas dėl to, kaip galimai panaikinti tarifus toms šalims iš visuotinės versijos, kurią pažadėjo prezidentas, tačiau pareigūnai perspėjo, kad Trumpas vis tiek gali nuspręsti laikytis visapusiško požiūrio.

 

 Trumpas pareiškė, kad Meksikos ir Kanados tarifai įsigalios, jei šalys nesiims veiksmų sustabdyti migraciją ir narkotikų gabenimą per JAV sienas. Trumpas pažadėjo laikytis kovinės pozicijos su Kinija dėl jos vaidmens fentanilio krizėje.

 

 Baltųjų rūmų spaudos sekretorė Karoline Leavitt penktadienį sakė, kad bus taikomi Meksikos, Kanados ir Kinijos tarifai, tačiau atsisakė kalbėti apie išimtis tam tikriems produktams arba ką – jei ką – prekybos partneriai galėtų padaryti, kad išvengtų muitų. Trumpo komanda taip pat svarstė lengvatinį laikotarpį nuo muitų paskelbimo šeštadienį iki jų iš tikrųjų įvedimo, tačiau penktadienį Leavitt, panašu, sumenkino šią galimybę, žurnalistams sakydama, kad Trumpas „jo tarifus įgyvendins rytoj“.

 

 Akcijos sumažino rytinį pelną ir po jos pastabų tapo neigiamos.

 

 Trumpas žurnalistams Ovaliame kabinete sakė, kad Kanada, Meksika ir Kinija nieko negalėjo padaryti, kad išvengtų muitų iki šeštadienio. Tačiau jis pasakė, kad svarsto galimybę sumažinti Kanados žalios naftos tarifą – 10%, o ne 25%.

 

 Sprendimas dėl atskyrimo pirmajam muitų etapui, kurio tikimasi šeštadienį, būtų ankstyvas ekonominės rizikos lygio rodiklis, kurį prezidentas nori prisiimti, kildamas naujiems prekybos karams ir priversdamas kitas šalis laikytis jo politikos reikalavimų. Ištisas savaites stambios JAV pramonės įmonės, tokios, kaip naftos ir automobilių sektoriai, lobizavo jį dėl išimčių nuo tarifų, perspėdamos apie aukštesnes kainas ir tiekimo grandinės problemas visame žemyne, o Kanada ir Meksika parengė atsakomųjų priemonių, skirtų JAV produktams nukentėti, sąrašą.

 

 Trumpo patarėjai apsvarstė išimtis naftos importui ir automobiliams, atitinkantiems JAV, Meksikos ir Kanados susitarimą – atnaujintą „Nafta“ susitarimą, dėl kurio Trumpas susiderėjo ir kurį pasirašė per pirmąją kadenciją.

 

 Trumpas ketvirtadienį nurodė, kad gali būti taikomos išimtys, sakydamas, kad svarstys galimybę atsisakyti naftos muitų, tačiau pakartojo, kad tarifai bus įvesti šeštadienį, nepaisant šią savaitę vykusių plačių derybų su Kanada ir Meksika. Jo administracija tvirtino, kad nė vienas iš muitų nepadidins infliacijos.

 

 Tuo tarpu Kinijos muitų grėsmė buvo nepastebėta, palyginti su Šiaurės Amerikos įsipareigojimais dėl muitų. Nors anksčiau šią savaitę Trumpas sakė, kad vis dar svarsto muitus antrai pagal dydį pasaulio ekonomikai, jis daug dažniau retoriškai nusitaikė į Kanadą ir Meksiką, o atrodė, kad jo komanda mažiau bendrauja su Kinijos diplomatais nei su pareigūnais iš JAV žemyno kaimynėmis.

 

 Priklausomai nuo išskyrimo, šis Trumpo tarifų raundas gali apimti daugiau prekybos dolerio verte, nei jo pirmosios kadencijos muitai. Trumpo keturios muitų dalys Kinijos prekėms 2018–2019 m. apėmė importą, kurio vertė tuo metu buvo maždaug 360 mlrd. dolerių. Nauji tarifai Kanadai ir Meksikai ir papildomi muitai Kinijai, jei bus taikomi visoms prekėms, apimtų importą, kurio vertė 2023 m. viršija 1,3 trilijono dolerių.

 

 Remiantis surašymo biuro duomenimis, Kanada ir Meksika kartu tiekė apie 28% JAV importo per pirmuosius 11 2024 m. mėnesių. Kinijai teko dar 13,5 proc.

 

 JAV muitinė ir sienos apsauga pranešė, kad praėjusiais fiskaliniais metais prie pietvakarių sienos buvo konfiskuota 21 148 svarai fentanilio, didžioji dauguma iš JAV piliečių, atvykusių per legalius įvažiavimo uostus. Prie šiaurinės sienos CBP pranešė konfiskavęs 43 svarus narkotikų.

 

 Abiejų JAV kaimynių pareigūnai praėjusią savaitę surengė suderintą kampaniją, siekdami išvengti muitų, kartu su administracija atidarė naujas migracijos ir narkotikų darbo grupes, taip pat parengė atsakomąsias priemones, kad JAV gaminiams būtų taikomi tarifai.

 

 Viso proceso metu Meksikos ir Kanados pareigūnai išreiškė nusivylimą, kad nežino, kokiais veiksmais būtų patenkinti D. Trumpo reikalavimai, nepaisant savaites trukusių aukštų pareigūnų susitikimų. Iš tiesų, artėjantis tarifų paskelbimas šeštadienį bus paskelbtas po to, kai Baltieji rūmai praėjusią savaitę viešai pareiškė, kad derybos su abiem šalimis vyksta gerai.

 

 Penktadienio rytą Kanados ministras pirmininkas Justinas Trudeau pakartojo, kad Kanada turės „prievartingą, bet pagrįstą“ atsaką į JAV tarifus. Jis perspėjo, kad Kanados ekonomika gali nukentėti. „Aš to nedengsiu cukrumi“, - sakė jis.

 

 Kanados centrinis bankas praėjusią savaitę perspėjo, kad prekybos konfliktas su JAV sukels Kanados ekonomiką sumaištį. Penktadienį Kanados visuomenės saugumo ministras, atsakingas už sieną, taip pat jos imigracijos ir užsienio reikalų ministrai buvo visi Vašingtone, kur paskutinės minutės susitiko su D. Trumpo pasienio caru Tomu Homanu.

 

 Tuo tarpu Meksikos prezidentė Claudia Sheinbaum pareiškė, kad jos vyriausybė yra pasirengusi D. Trumpo tarifams ir atsakys tuo pačiu.

 

 „Mes turime planą A, planą B, planą C, kad ir ką nuspręstų JAV vyriausybė“, – sakė Sheinbaum. „Svarbu prisiminti tarifų įvedimo pasekmes JAV ekonomikai“.” [1]

 

 O Sheinbaum, o Sheinbaum, koks žalias tavo kvailas mąstymas...

 

 ES sėdi ramiai su tekančiomis seilėmis ir laukia, kol Ukrainos Zelenskis sunaikins Rusiją, kad paimti į rankas Maskvos turtus.

1.    President Threatens To Widen Trade War --- Trump plans sector- based levies on eve of expected Mexico- Canada-China duties. Bade, Gavin; Andrews, Natalie; Vipal Monga in Toronto; Santiago Perez in Mexico City.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Feb 2025: A1.  

There is only one real way to stop capitalists running for the lowest workforce prices in the world - to introduce tariffs for all of them. This is happening now

"The U.S. will impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, copper, oil and gas imports as soon as mid-February, President Trump said Friday, opening a new front in his looming second-term trade wars.

"That'll happen fairly soon," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, adding that he also wants to hike tariffs on the European Union, which has "treated us so horribly," though he didn't specify when the duties would be imposed or how high they would be.

A representative for the EU didn't respond to a request for comment.

The announcement for those sector-based and EU tariffs appeared separate from the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China, which he had said would be implemented Saturday.

The duties previewed by Trump would come on top of existing tariffs on those products, he said, waving away any concern about the levies increasing inflation or snarling global supply chains.

"I think there could be some temporary, short-term disruption and people will understand that," Trump said. "The tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong."

In the short term, leaders in Mexico, Canada and China -- and CEOs of American companies -- were hyperfocused on whether the president would include carve-outs for major industries that have lobbied him hard in recent days. His team has been in negotiations over how to potentially dial back the tariffs on those countries from the across-the-board version the president has pledged, but officials have warned that Trump may still decide to go through with a full-throated approach.

Trump has said the Mexico and Canada tariffs will take effect if the countries don't take steps to stop migration and drug trafficking over U.S. borders. Trump had promised to take a combative position with China over its role in the fentanyl crisis.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Friday said the Mexico, Canada and China tariffs were coming but declined to speak on exemptions for certain products or what -- if anything -- the trading partners could do to avoid the duties. Trump's team had also been considering a grace period between the announcement of the tariffs on Saturday and when they would actually be imposed, but Leavitt seemed to play down that possibility on Friday, telling reporters Trump would "implement his tariffs tomorrow."

Stocks pared morning gains and turned negative after her remarks.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that there was nothing Canada, Mexico and China could do to avoid the tariffs before Saturday. But he did say he was considering a lower tariff on Canadian crude oil -- 10% instead of 25%.

The decision on carve-outs for the first round of duties expected Saturday would provide an early indicator on the level of economic risk the president is willing to take in sparking new trade wars and pushing other nations to adhere to his policy demands. For weeks, large U.S. industries such as the oil and automotive sectors have lobbied him for exemptions from the tariffs, warning of higher prices and continental-wide supply chain issues, while Canada and Mexico have prepared a list of retaliatory measures to hit U.S. products with tariffs in kind.

Trump advisers have considered exemptions for oil imports and automobiles that comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the updated Nafta deal that Trump negotiated and signed in his first term.

Trump on Thursday gave some indication that exemptions could be coming, saying that he would consider a carve-out for oil, but reiterating that the tariffs would be imposed on Saturday, despite extensive talks with Canada and Mexico this week. His administration has insisted that none of the duties would add to inflation.

The China tariff threat, meanwhile, has flown under the radar compared with the North American tariff pledges. While Trump said earlier this past week that he was still considering duties on the world's second-largest economy, he has rhetorically targeted Canada and Mexico much more often, and his team had appeared to have less contact with Chinese diplomats than officials from the U.S.'s continental neighbors.

Depending on carve-outs, this round of Trump tariffs could cover more trade in dollar value than his first-term duties. Trump's four tranches of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018-19 covered imports valued at roughly $360 billion at the time. New tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus additional tariffs on China would -- if all items are subject to the action -- cover imports valued at more than $1.3 trillion in 2023.

Canada and Mexico combined supplied about 28% of U.S. imports in the first 11 months of 2024, according to Census Bureau data. China accounted for an additional 13.5%.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that last fiscal year 21,148 pounds of fentanyl was seized at the southwest border, the vast majority from U.S. citizens coming through legal ports of entry. On the northern border, CBP reported seizing 43 pounds of the drug.

Officials from both U.S. neighbors mounted a concerted campaign this past week to avoid the tariffs, opening new migration and drug working groups with the administration while also preparing retaliatory measures to hit U.S. products with tariffs.

Throughout the process, Mexican and Canadian officials have expressed frustration that they don't know what actions would satisfy Trump's demands, despite weeks of meetings between senior officials. Indeed, the looming tariff announcement Saturday would follow the White House saying publicly this past week that negotiations were progressing well with both nations.

On Friday morning, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reiterated that Canada would have a "forceful but reasonable" response to U.S. tariffs. He warned that the Canadian economy could suffer. "I won't sugar coat it," he said.

Canada's central bank warned this past week that trade conflict with the U.S. would throw the Canadian economy into turmoil. Friday, Canada's public safety minister, who is in charge of the border, as well as its immigration and foreign ministers were all in Washington for last-minute meetings with Tom Homan, Trump's border czar.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, meanwhile, said her government was ready for Trump's tariffs and would respond in kind.

"We have Plan A, Plan B, Plan C for whatever the U.S. government decides," Sheinbaum said. "It's important to remember the implications that imposing tariffs could have for the U.S. economy."" [1]

Oh Sheinbaum, oh Sheinbaum, how green is your stupid thinking...

The EU is sitting still with saliva running and waiting for Ukraine's Zelensky to destroy Russia and get their hands on the riches of Moscow.

1.    President Threatens To Widen Trade War --- Trump plans sector- based levies on eve of expected Mexico- Canada-China duties. Bade, Gavin; Andrews, Natalie; Vipal Monga in Toronto; Santiago Perez in Mexico City.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Feb 2025: A1.