The New Wave of AI Is Here

"A recent meme captures the gnawing artificial-intelligence backlash: A worker says, "AI turns this single bullet point into a long email I can pretend I wrote." In the next panel, "AI makes a single bullet point out of a long email I can pretend I read."

Funny. But in reality, there's a lot more going on. Right on cue with the backlash are questions about AI's business model. This month, a Journal headline stated, "No One Knows How to Price AI Tools." How true. Do you bundle it like Microsoft Copilot or like Google's AI Overview to show up above web search results (which apparently can be turned off only by cursing at it)? Should you charge $20 a month? Or $200 like ChatGPT Pro? Or offer the open-source Chinese DeepSeek for cheap? It makes a difference as bills keep piling up for announced data centers and expensive Nvidia chips.

As we warned early last month about DeepSeek, competition is fierce. On open-source AI, even OpenAI's Sam Altman thinks "we have been on the wrong side of history." But DeepSeek doesn't mark the end of U.S. dominance. No, no. Instead, it's a sign that the next wave of AI is starting. Lower usage costs are great for those developing applications. Real productivity will define the next era as corporate America pays up for anything that saves money.

-- Call centers and agents. You scour the web for answers, but sometimes you just have to talk to a real person, which can cost companies up to $1 a minute, a huge pain point. Often the experience is in broken English, with long pauses as the agents look up the same stuff you did.

Salesforce now sells a service called Agentforce, a platform that deploys AI agents. After these new agents go through your data, the number of questions that required human intervention declined by half. While that's mostly text-based, imagine soon an 800 phone number and the voice you speak with is AI-generated instead of human -- you won't even know. Maybe add a smattering of broken English for realism? The answers will be better, and the savings will be staggering. Yes, it's ironic that Salesforce is hiring 2,000 new salespeople -- humans -- to sell these AI tools.

-- Doctor summaries. Tired of your doctor distractedly typing during your expensive five-minute appointment? Healthcare privacy laws aside, every doctor interaction could be recorded, transcribed and an appointment summary generated for your health record. Bullet points even. Don't tell doctors, but this could be the first step toward automated generative diagnostics driving real savings.

-- Legal beagles. Several legal AI tools have hit the market to augment lawyers as they peruse databases of contracts and legal code. Will we get a discount on legal fees? I doubt it, but it isn't hard to envision new AI services that can draw up contracts or dispense advice, for one-tenth of the cost.

-- Companions. Maybe you've seen the commercials for Google's Gemini Live, folks holding a conversation with their phones. Pretty cool. It's what Alexa and Siri should have been. As with most technology (VCRs, digital video), erotic applications tend to drive the early market. There are already plenty of companion chatbots, including Replika AI, Character AI and even ChatGPT that, despite their rules against it, are used as virtual lovers. Creepy, but real. Next, envision companions for all the lonely people, especially the elderly. Heck, they can even use your voice. Then generative therapy sessions are coming, though therapists will kick and scream.

-- Software coders. Google claims that more than 25% of its internal source code is now AI-generated. Salesforce has announced a hiring freeze for software engineers. Facebook hopes to automate "midlevel" software engineers. There will soon be a proliferation of startups stocked with more high-level software architects vs. coders. That's progress.

-- Education. Generative AI is already proving to be a great and inexpensive tutor and teacher. Let's roll this out fast.

-- Graphic designers. A text prompt can result in a pretty good picture within seconds. Today, AI can even generate a few frames of pretty realistic video. Maybe that turns into 22-minute sitcoms and eventually movies. The value proposition shifts to creative minds from studios.

As happened with operators, tellers, travel agents and so on, jobs lost are replaced by new and better-paying jobs in emerging industries. Every time. Yes, AI is now going after white-collar jobs with a vengeance, but that means freeing up capital to fund new technologies that don't yet exist (laundry folding robots, please). McKinsey projects that "8 to 9 percent of 2030 labor demand will be in new types of occupations that have not existed before." Eventually, AI will enable 25% and then 50% of productive but never-existed-before new jobs. Beats $20 a month for email bullet points." [1]

1. Inside View: The New Wave of AI Is Here. Kessler, Andy.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 10 Feb 2025: A17.

 

Warming Trend in U.S.-Russia Relations Leaves Ukraine in a Tough Spot

 

Trump’s recent moves, including a conversation with Putin and a demand for Ukrainian mineral rights, are worrisome signs for Zelensky.

"President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was already facing a daunting week as foreign officials gathered in Europe for talks about his country’s future.

The Trump administration was demanding $500 billion in Ukrainian mineral rights, it canceled Ukraine’s exemption from U.S. tariffs on steel, and a leading American skeptic of military assistance for Kyiv, Vice President JD Vance, was on his way to Europe for a meeting with the Ukrainian leader.

But on Wednesday, things went from bad to worse. Mr. Trump’s defense secretary delivered a harsh assessment of Ukraine’s prospects in its conflict with Russia. Then Mr. Trump announced that he had spoken with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a call Mr. Trump characterized as the opening of talks to end the conflict — with no clear role for Mr. Zelensky.

The phone call also spelled the end of American efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically after its full-scale conflict with Ukraine nearly three years ago.

“He’s on his heels geopolitically,” Cliff Kupchan, chairman of Eurasia Group, a risk analysis firm based in Washington, said of Mr. Zelensky.

Mr. Trump’s actions in the last two days — which also included a prisoner swap with the Kremlin that freed an American teacher — signaled a thawing relationship between the United States and Russia that could favor Mr. Putin in a peace deal while leaving Ukraine on the sidelines. Mr. Trump also called the Ukrainian leader on Wednesday, but in a social media post he did not mention how, or if, Mr. Zelensky would figure in peace talks.

Mr. Zelensky will meet with Mr. Vance and the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, at the annual Munich Security Conference, which opens on Friday, Mr. Trump said.

Negotiations to end the deadliest conflict in Europe in generations will shape the future of Ukraine, and the recent developments mean some of its territory likely to remain under Russian occupation.

And they will shape Mr. Zelensky’s political future. He has little choice but to go along with American-led talks despite his deep skepticism, shared by most Ukrainians, of Mr. Putin’s readiness to negotiate without imposing onerous conditions or bringing more military and economic pressure to bear.

By Thursday morning, it was a sentiment swirling widely in Kyiv, a city now hit nightly with Russian missiles and exploding drones.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst, wrote on Facebook that Mr. Putin was most likely playing the Trump administration for time. “He is not going to compromise on ending the conflict, as Trump’s team wants,” he wrote.

Mr. Trump wasn’t the only one to deliver sobering news to Ukraine. The new U.S. secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, told European allies on Wednesday that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to return to its borders as they were before events began in 2014.

And he added that the United States did not support Ukraine’s goal of joining NATO to secure any peace settlement, calling it “unrealistic.”

Mr. Zelensky has played weak hands well before. In the opening days of conflict, he popped out of a bunker to film selfie videos that rallied his country, and much of the world, to Ukraine’s cause.

Now he is again facing a pivotal moment for his country in a diminished position, sinking in domestic polls and getting a cold shoulder from his most important ally.

And while Mr. Trump’s claim on Ukraine’s minerals comes at a big cost for Kyiv, it has also been viewed by Ukrainian officials as a hopeful sign. The talks on mineral rights, which began on Wednesday with a visit to Kyiv by the American Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, open a path for Mr. Trump to continue military aid while claiming to have secured a benefit for the United States.

“They’ve essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid,” Mr. Trump said of Ukraine’s willingness to yield its natural resources, in an interview with Fox News that aired on Monday. “Otherwise, we’re stupid. I said to them, ‘We have to get something. We cannot continue to pay this money.’ ”

That was before Russia and the United States showed a new willingness to work together. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump’s friend and envoy, Steve Witkoff, flew a private jet into Moscow to retrieve an imprisoned American teacher, Marc Fogel, a notable gesture of conciliation by Moscow. In return, the Kremlin said, the United States would deliver a Russian cybercriminal, Alexander Vinnik, back to Russia.

Mr. Zelensky has twice in recent days said he is willing to negotiate with Mr. Putin if Western allies offer security guarantees in a settlement.

Mr. Putin, for his part, has signaled that Mr. Zelensky would need to face an election at home before Russia would accept his signature on a peace deal. The demand suggests a Russian view of a potential three-step process for negotiating a settlement to the conflict, according to Ukrainian officials and security analysts. It envisions an initial truce followed by elections in Ukraine and only then a binding cease-fire.

Mr. Zelensky has rejected Mr. Putin’s repeated claims that he is an illegitimate leader, and that Ukraine needs to lift martial law and hold elections. (Ukrainian elections were delayed under martial law after Russia invaded in 2022. Mr. Zelensky’s five-year term, which would have expired last May, was extended under the law.)

Ukrainian officials say they view the Russian demand for democratic elections as part of a ploy to destabilize the government and compel Ukraine to let its guard down for a vote. They have urged the Trump administration not to endorse the idea.

“It is the Russians who are raising the topic of elections because they need their man in Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said in an interview with the British broadcaster ITV News that aired last weekend. “If we suspend martial law, we may lose the army. And the Russians will be happy because the qualities of spirit and combat capability will be lost.”

Inside Ukraine, however, his domestic opponents are quietly preparing for a possible campaign.

Despite his diminished status going into talks, it is too early to write off Mr. Zelensky, a former actor and an adept leader in a crisis, Mr. Kupchan, the Eurasia analyst, said. “He’s proven to be quite a skilled counterpuncher,” he said. “I don’t feel we’re in the final act of any play yet.”

Mr. Zelensky is preparing for talks as the momentum on the main front of the conflict, in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, has favored Russia for more than a year. If the momentum of a few dozen or hundreds of yards of advances per day continued through negotiations, it would give an advantage to Moscow. Then, any delay by Ukraine in accepting cease-fire terms would cost Kyiv territory." [1]

Warming Trend in U.S.-Russia Relations Leaves Ukraine in a Tough Spot. Kramer, Andrew E.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Feb 13, 2025.

JAV ir Rusijos santykių šiltėjimo tendencija palieka Ukrainą sunkioje vietoje

 “Pastarieji Trumpo žingsniai, įskaitant pokalbį su Putinu ir reikalavimą suteikti Ukrainos teises į naudingąsias iškasenas, yra Zelenskiui nerimą keliantys ženklai.

 

 „Ukrainos prezidentui Volodymyro Zelenskio jau laukė bauginanti savaitė, kai užsienio pareigūnai susirinko Europoje kalbėtis apie jo šalies ateitį.

 

 Trumpo administracija reikalavo 500 milijardų dolerių Ukrainos naudingųjų iškasenų teisių, ji atšaukė Ukrainos atleidimą nuo JAV muitų plienui, o pagrindinis amerikiečių skeptikas dėl karinės pagalbos Kijevui, viceprezidentas JD Vance'as, buvo pakeliui į Europą susitikti su Ukrainos lyderiu.

 

 Tačiau trečiadienį viskas pasisuko blogiau. D. Trumpo gynybos sekretorius griežtai įvertino Ukrainos perspektyvas konflikte su Rusija. Tada D. Trumpas paskelbė, kad kalbėjosi su Rusijos prezidentu Vladimiru V. Putinu. D. Trumpo skambutis buvo apibūdintas, kaip derybų, kuriomis siekiama užbaigti konfliktą, pradžia – be aiškaus p. Zelenskio vaidmens.

 

 Telefono pokalbis taip pat reiškė Amerikos nutarimą užbaigti pastangas diplomatiškai izoliuoti Rusiją po jos plataus masto konflikto su Ukraina prieš beveik trejus metus.

 

 „Geopolitiškai jis gauna smūgį į pilvą“, – apie poną Zelenskį sakė Vašingtone įsikūrusios rizikos analizės įmonės Eurasia Group pirmininkas Cliffas Kupchanas.

 

 D. Trumpo veiksmai per pastarąsias dvi dienas, įskaitant apsikeitimą kaliniais su Kremliumi, išlaisvinus vieną mokytoją amerikietį, rodė atšilusį JAV ir Rusijos santykį, kuris gali būti palankus V. Putinui taikos susitarime, o Ukrainą palikti nuošalyje. D. Trumpas trečiadienį taip pat skambino Ukrainos lyderiui, tačiau socialinių tinklų įraše jis neužsiminė, kaip ir ar p. Zelenskis figūruos taikos derybose.

 

 M. Zelenskis susitiks su V. Vance'u ir valstybės sekretoriumi Marco Rubio kasmetinėje Miuncheno saugumo konferencijoje, kuri prasidės penktadienį, sakė D. Trumpas.

 

 Derybos, kuriomis siekiama užbaigti daugiausiai gyvybių nusinešusio konflikto Europoje per kelias kartas, nulems Ukrainos ateitį, o pastarieji įvykiai reiškia, kad dalis jos teritorijos gali likti Rusijos kontrolėje.

 

 Ir jie formuos P. Zelenskio politinę ateitį. Jis neturi kito pasirinkimo, kaip tik leistis į, Amerikos vadovaujamas, derybas, nepaisant gilaus skepticizmo, kurį palaiko dauguma ukrainiečių, dėl V. Putino pasirengimo derėtis, nesukeliant sunkių sąlygų ar nedarant didesnio karinio ir ekonominio spaudimo.

 

 Ketvirtadienio rytą tokios nuotaikos buvo plačiai paplitusios Kijeve – mieste, kuriame dabar kiekvieną naktį smogiama Rusijos raketomis ir sprogstančiais bepiločiais orlaiviais.

 

 Politikos analitikas Volodymyras Fesenko socialiniame tinkle „Facebook“ rašė, kad V. Putinas, greičiausiai, viliojo Trumpo administraciją. „Jis nesiruošia eiti į kompromisus, siekdamas užbaigti konfliktą, kaip to nori Trumpo komanda“, – rašė jis.

 

 D. Trumpas nebuvo vienintelis, kuris Ukrainai pranešė blaivias naujienas. Naujasis JAV gynybos sekretorius Pete'as Hegsethas trečiadienį pareiškė Europos sąjungininkams, kad Ukrainai „nerealu“ grįžti prie savo sienų, kokios buvo, prieš prasidedant įvykiams 2014 m.

 

 Jis pridūrė, kad Jungtinės Valstijos nepalaiko Ukrainos tikslo prisijungti prie NATO, kad būtų užtikrintas bet koks taikos susitarimas, ir pavadino tai „nerealiu“.

 

 P. Zelenskis ir anksčiau yra žaidęs silpnomis rankomis. Pirmosiomis konflikto dienomis jis išlindo iš bunkerio ir nufilmavo asmenukės vaizdo įrašus.

 Dabar jis vėl susiduria su lemiamu momentu savo šaliai, kai pablogėjo jo padėtis, smunka šalies rinkimuose ir sulaukia šalto peties iš savo svarbiausio sąjungininko.

 

 Ir nors D. Trumpo pretenzijos dėl Ukrainos naudingųjų iškasenų Kijevui brangiai kainuoja, Ukrainos pareigūnai tai taip pat vertina, kaip viltingą ženklą. Derybos dėl teisių į naudingąsias iškasenas, prasidėjusios trečiadienį JAV iždo sekretoriaus Scotto Bessent vizitu į Kijevą, atveria D. Trumpui kelią tęsti karinę pagalbą, teigiant, kad užsitikrino naudą Jungtinėms Valstijoms.

 

 „Jie iš esmės sutiko tai padaryti, todėl bent jau nesijaučiame kvaili“, – pirmadienį interviu televizijai „Fox News“ sakė D. Trumpas apie Ukrainos norą atiduoti savo gamtos išteklius. „Kitaip mes esame kvaili. Aš jiems pasakiau: „Turime ką nors gauti. Mes negalime toliau mokėti šių pinigų.”

 

 Tai buvo prieš tai, kai Rusija ir JAV parodė naują norą dirbti kartu. Antradienį D. Trumpo draugas ir pasiuntinys Steve'as Witkoffas privačiu lėktuvu atskrido į Maskvą, kad išvežtų įkalintą amerikietį mokytoją Marcą Fogelį, o tai yra puikus Maskvos susitaikymo gestas. Mainais, Kremlius pareiškė, kad JAV grąžins Rusijai Aleksandrą Vinniką.

 

 M. Zelenskis pastarosiomis dienomis du kartus pareiškė, kad yra pasirengęs derėtis su V. Putinu, jei Vakarų sąjungininkai pasiūlys saugumo garantijas susitarime.

 

 V. Putinas savo ruožtu davė signalą, kad, prieš Rusijai priėmus jo taikos susitarimą, Zelenskis turi būti vėl išrinktas į jo postą, nes jp termas baigėsi pernai gegužės mėnesį. Pasak Ukrainos pareigūnų ir saugumo analitikų, šis reikalavimas rodo Rusijos požiūrį į galimą trijų etapų procesą siekiant išspręsti konfliktą. Jame numatomos pradinės paliaubos, po kurių įvyks rinkimai Ukrainoje ir tik tada įpareigojančios paliaubos.

 

 P. Zelenskis atmetė, ne kartą pasikartojančius, V. Putino teiginius, kad jis yra neteisėtas lyderis, o Ukraina turi panaikinti karo padėtį ir surengti rinkimus. (Ukrainos rinkimai buvo atidėti dėl karo padėties 2022 m.įvedimo. P. Zelenskio penkerių metų kadencija, kuri būtų pasibaigusi pernai gegužę, pagal įstatymą buvo pratęsta.)

 

 Ukrainos pareigūnai teigia, kad Rusijos reikalavimą surengti demokratinius rinkimus laiko gudrybe destabilizuoti vyriausybę ir priversti Ukrainą nusileisti balsavimui. Jie paragino Trumpo administraciją nepritarti šiai idėjai.

 

 „Rusai kelia rinkimų temą, nes jiems reikia savo žmogaus Ukrainoje“, – praėjusį savaitgalį parodytame interviu britų transliuotojui ITV News sakė ponas Zelenskis. „Jei sustabdysime karo padėtį, galime prarasti kariuomenę. Ir rusai bus laimingi, nes prarasime dvasios ir kovinio pajėgumo savybes.

 

 Tačiau Ukrainos viduje jo vidaus oponentai tyliai ruošiasi galimai kampanijai.

 

 Nepaisant suprastėjusio jo statuso, einant į derybas, dar per anksti nurašyti poną Zelenskį, buvusį aktorių ir įgudusį lyderį krizėje, sakė Eurazijos analitikas J. Kupchanas. „Įrodyta, kad jis yra gana įgudęs atmušėjas“, – sakė jis. „Kol kas nemanau, kad esame paskutiniame kokio nors spektaklio veiksme“.

 

 M. Zelenskis ruošiasi deryboms, nes pagrindiniame konflikto fronte, Rytų Ukrainos Donbaso regione, Rusijai jau daugiau, nei metus, žėri palankus impulsas. Jei keliasdešimties ar šimtų jardų per dieną pažanga tęstųsi per derybas, tai suteiktų pranašumą Maskvai. Tada bet koks Ukrainos delsimas priimti paliaubų sąlygas kainuotų Kijevo teritoriją.” [1]

Warming Trend in U.S.-Russia Relations Leaves Ukraine in a Tough Spot. Kramer, Andrew E.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Feb 13, 2025.