Moscow's Assertiveness Upends NATO Goals

"BRUSSELS -- The U.S. and other NATO members have deployed thousands of troops and invested heavily in weaponry to rebuild the alliance's front line facing Russia. Moscow has parried that strategy by opening up new fronts just beyond NATO's reach.

Now, as Russian officials visit North Atlantic Treaty Organization headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday to address grievances raised by the Kremlin, the 30-country alliance is grappling with how to counter Russia's increasing assertiveness.

Rather than confront NATO head-on, Russian President Vladimir Putin is exerting pressure in other countries including Ukraine, Syria and Libya. He is testing alliance unity with natural-gas deals while probing its democratic defenses with cyberattacks and disinformation, Western officials say. The approach is testing both the alliance's military might and Western political will.

NATO is divided over how to respond. Allies such as Germany and France have long urged caution and negotiations with Moscow.

Germany blocked the sale of sniper rifles to Ukraine via NATO last year, saying only defensive systems should be provided to help Kyiv, an alliance partner that has faced a simmering war against Russian-led separatists in its east since 2014. Hungary, led by a pro-Russian authoritarian, is preventing high-level NATO meetings with Ukraine.

Eastern members such as Poland and the Baltic states worry the Biden administration is leaning toward concessions to Mr. Putin in the hope of focusing instead on China. U.S. officials have said they won't accede to Moscow's demand that NATO commit to never accepting Ukraine and Georgia as members, but could consider other measures, such as mutual reductions to military exercises.

"If we give Putin concessions now, he'll come back for more," said a European diplomat at NATO. "Russia is a long-term threat with the political intent to weaken us."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in December said NATO had become "a purely geopolitical project aimed at absorbing territories left ownerlessafter the disappearance of the Warsaw Pact and the collapse of the Soviet Union."

A decade ago, NATO was a solution looking for a problem. The West had won the Cold War and belatedly subdued fighting in former Yugoslavia. For ex-Soviet bloc countries such as Poland and Hungary, NATO membership came to be seen as a stepping stone to European Union membership because investors felt comfortable diving into frontier economies under Washington's security umbrella. Prospects of serious warfare appeared remote. Two rounds of enlargement in 1999 and 2004 brought in former Soviet bloc countries from Bulgaria to the Baltic states.

Russia, consumed by domestic economic and political strife, grumbled but could do little. NATO sought to placate Moscow by agreeing to a cooperation pact that committed to not permanently base forces in former Soviet domains, allowing Moscow to open a diplomatic mission at NATO headquarters and establishing a council to address concerns.

NATO cut military budgets and shrank forces in Europe. It invoked its mutual-defense pact for the first time -- not against Russia, but following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks -- and it launched a mission in Afghanistan.

The dynamics began to shift in 2004, when Mr. Putin blamed the West for sponsoring a popular uprising in Ukraine that overturned the disputed election of his protege. He began bolstering the Russian military, which had atrophied from its Soviet-era might.

In 2008, Germany and France blocked a U.S.-led effort to offer the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia a path toward NATO membership.

The alliance came up with a workaround: Ukraine and Georgia could eventually become members, but no timeline was offered. "That was a big mistake," said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO secretary-general at the time. "We sent the wrong signal, a signal of disunity, weakness."

Few military analysts foresee Mr. Putin attacking NATO directly. The stakes for him are much lower in weaker countries, which he sees as critical to Russia's security and part of its sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, the Russian military buildup continues, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday, although diplomats say not at a pace that would suggest an imminent invasion. "The challenge," he said, "is that when you see this gradual military buildup combined with the threatening rhetoric -- capabilities, the rhetoric and the track record -- of course that sends a message that there is a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe."" [1]

1. World News: Moscow's Assertiveness Upends NATO Goals
Marson, James; Michaels, Daniel. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 12 Jan 2022: A.18.