Kissinger vs. Soros on Russia

"Davos, Switzerland -- Two American immigrants, both survivors of life under Nazi rule still making waves in their nineties, set the terms of debate at the World Economic Forum. Henry Kissinger, who celebrates his 99th birthday this week, made a virtual appearance to urge against attempts to marginalize Russia, calling on Ukraine to accept the territorial losses of 2014 to end of the sanctions on Russia. A few hours later, George Soros, in person at the forum at age 91, warned that sanctions on Russia were necessary to "save civilization" and urged the West to provide Zelensky with everything he needs to prevail.

Their prescriptions are radically different, but their perceptions have much in common. Both men believe that American values and interests make the defense of peace in Europe a primary goal of American foreign policy. Both see themselves as defenders of what is best in Western civilization. Both see the sanctions on Russia as a major shock to the world system and fear the consequences of a long struggle.

Messrs. Kissinger and Soros both believe that Russia is ultimately a secondary problem for American policy, and that the future of U.S.-China relations is of much greater significance in the long run.

Where they disagree is on the nature of the order and civilization they seek to conserve. Mr. Soros, much like the Biden administration, sees the dominant issue in world politics as a struggle between democracy and totalitarianism. Democracies are obliged by law to respect the rights of their citizens at home, and must conduct themselves under the restraints of international law abroad.

The Athenians once told the Melians during the Peloponnesian War, "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."

The Kissinger position is less ideological. There always has been and always will be many types of government in the world. America's job is to create and defend a balance of power that protects our freedom and that of our allies at the least possible risk and cost. We do not have a mission to convert the Russians and Chinese to the gospel of democracy and we must recognize that rival great powers have rights and interests that must be respected. Russia, as Mr. Kissinger told the Davos audience, is and will remain an important element in the European state system, and an enduring peace must recognize that unavoidable fact.

Looking at history, the one thing that seems clear is that neither approach yields an infallible guide to success. The French and British leaders who tried to appease Hitler in the 1930s made very Kissingerian arguments about the need to respect German national interests. The neoconservatives pushing George W. Bush to invade Iraq made Sorosian arguments about the totalitarian nature of Saddam Hussein's regime. As Messrs. Kissinger and Soros would both agree, mechanistically applying any theory of history to the messy realities of international life is a good way to get into trouble.

When Winston Churchill, a man who demonstrated both Sorosian and Kissingerian characteristics through his long career, was asked about postwar planning in 1942, he replied with words Western leaders should remember today. "I hope these speculative studies will be entrusted mainly to those on whose hands time hangs heavy, and that we shall not overlook Mrs. Glasse's Cookery Book recipe for jugged hare -- 'First catch your hare.'"

Our hare is not caught. Russia's new tactic of threatening the world food supply by blockading Ukrainian ports reminds us that Mr. Putin still has some cards up his sleeve and many Europeans appear to fear a Russian gas embargo more than Russia fears a European boycott.

Zelensky cannot survive without enormous help from the West, economic as well as military. What will happen to his currency as he spends everything he has on survival? How many $40 billion aid packages is Congress prepared to pass? How much economic aid is the EU ready to provide at a time when many EU economies are struggling with inflation and high fuel prices? If the sanctions cause food shortages and even famines around the world and political instability spreads into such countries as Egypt, will the West be able to coordinate a global response even as it continues to aid Zelensky?

Henry Kissinger and George Soros may have dominated the Davos debates, but Mrs. Glasse will probably have the last word." [1]

Strange. The great ruler of the armies, the Lithuanian President, Mr. Nausėda is nowhere to be seen in these discussions despite pronouncing high flying thoughts in Davos.

1. Kissinger vs. Soros on Russia
Walter Russell Mead. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 26 May 2022: A.17.