"Early in Joe Biden’s presidency,
Felicia Wong, the president of the liberal Roosevelt Institute, told me that Biden was badly
misunderstood. He’s been in national politics for decades, and so people look
at him and “default to a kind of old understanding of what Democrats stand for,
this idea that Democrats are tax-and-spend liberals.” Wong thought he wanted
more: “What Biden is trying to push is much more about actually remaking our
economy, so that it does different things, and it actually regularly produces
different outcomes.”
I think Wong was right about what
Biden, or at least the Biden administration, wanted. But its execution has
lagged its vision. And the reason for this is uncomfortable for Democrats. You
can’t transform the economy without first transforming the government.
In April, Brian Deese, the director
of Biden’s National Economic Council, gave an important speech on the need for
“a modern American industrial strategy.” This was a salvo in a debate most
Americans would probably be puzzled to know Democrats are having.
Industrial strategy is the idea that a country should chart
a path to productive capacity beyond what the market would, on its own,
support. It is the belief that there should be some politics in our economics,
some vision of what we are trying to make beyond what financial markets reward.
Trying to build clean energy infrastructure is a form of
industrial strategy. So is investing in domestic supply chains for vaccines and
masks and microchips. For decades, the idea has been disreputable, even among
Democrats. You don’t want government “picking winners and losers,” as the adage
goes.
The argument, basically, is this: When governments bet on
technologies, or companies, they typically bet wrong. Markets are more
efficient, more adaptable, less corrupt. And so governments should, where
possible, get out of the market’s way. The government’s proper role is after
the market has done its work, shifting money from those who have it to those
who need it. Put simply, markets create, governments tax, and politicians
spend.
It’s remarkable, the assumptions that lurk beneath what’s
taken for common sense in Washington. Consider the phrase “winners and losers.”
Winners at what? Losers how? Markets manage such questions through profits and
losses, valuations and bankruptcies. But societies have richer, more complex
goals. To criticize markets for failing to achieve them is like berating a
toaster because it never produces an oil painting. That’s not its job.
So I won’t say markets failed. We failed. Growth
slowed, inequality widened, the climate crisis kept getting worse,
deindustrialization wrecked communities, the pandemic proved America’s supply
chains fragile, China became more authoritarian rather than more democratic and
then sanctions on Russia revealed the folly of relying on countries we cannot
trust for goods we desperately need.
No one considers this success. Deese, in his speech to the
Economic Club of New York., declared the debate over: “The question should move
from ‘Why should we pursue an industrial strategy?’ to ‘How do we
pursue one successfully?’”
I am unabashedly sympathetic to this
vision. In a series of columns over the last year, I’ve argued
that we need a liberalism that builds. Scratch the failures of modern
Democratic governance, particularly in blue states, and you’ll typically find
that the market didn’t provide what we needed, and government either didn’t
step in, or made the problem worse through neglect or overregulation.
We need to build more homes, trains,
clean energy, research centers, disease surveillance. And we need to do it
faster and cheaper. At the national level, much can be blamed on Republican
obstruction and the filibuster. But that’s not always true in New York or
California or Oregon. It is too slow and too costly to build even where Republicans
are weak — perhaps especially where they are weak.
This is where the liberal vision too
often averts its gaze. If anything, the critiques made of public action a
generation ago have more force today. Do we have a government capable of
building? The answer, too often, is no. What we have is a government that is
extremely good at making building difficult.
The first step is admitting you have
a problem, and Deese, to his credit, did exactly that. “A modern American
industrial strategy needs to demonstrate that America can build — fast, as
we’ve done before, and fairly, as we’ve sometimes failed to do,” he said.
He noted that the Empire State
Building was constructed in just over a year. We are richer than we were then,
and our technology far outpaces what was available in 1930. And yet — does
anyone seriously believe such a project would take a year today?
“We need to unpack the many
constraints that cause America to lag other major countries — including those
with strong labor, environmental and historical protections — in delivering
infrastructure on budget and on time,” Deese continued.
One answer — the typical Republican
answer — is that government can’t do the job and shouldn’t try. But the data
doesn’t bear that out. The Transit Costs Project tracks the price tags on
rail projects in different countries. It’s hard to get an apples-to-apples comparison
here, because different projects are, well, different, and it matters whether
they include, say, a tunnel, which is expensive for all the obvious reasons.
Even so, the United States is notable for how much we spend
and how little we get. It costs about $538 million to build a kilometer of rail
here. Germany builds a kilometer of rail for $287 million. Canada gets it done
for $254 million. Japan clocks in at $170 million. Spain is the cheapest
country in the database, at $80 million. All those countries build more tunnels
than we do, perhaps because they retain the confidence to regularly try. The
better you are at building infrastructure, the more ambitious you can be when
imagining infrastructure to build.
The problem isn’t government. It’s our government. Nor is
the problem unions — another favored bugaboo of the right. Union density is
higher in all those countries than it is in the United States. So what has gone
wrong here?
One answer worth wrestling with was
offered by Brink Lindsey, director of the Open Society Project at the Niskanen
Center, in a 2021 paper
titled “State Capacity: What Is It, How We Lost It, and How to Get It Back.”
Lindsey’s definition is admirably terse.
“State capacity is the ability to design and execute policy
effectively,” he told me.
When a government can’t collect the taxes it’s
owed or build the sign-up portal to its new health insurance plan or construct
the high-speed rail it’s already spent billions of dollars on, that’s a failure
of state capacity.
But a weak government is often an
end, not an accident. Lindsey’s argument is that to fix state capacity in
America, we need to see that the hobbled state we have is a choice, and there
are reasons it was chosen. Government isn’t intrinsically inefficient. It has
been made inefficient. And not just by the right:
What is needed most is a change in ideas: namely, a reversal
of those intellectual trends of the past 50 years or so that have brought us to
the current pass. On the right, this means abandoning the knee-jerk
anti-statism of recent decades, embracing the legitimacy of a large, complex
welfare and regulatory state, and recognizing the vital role played by the
nation’s public servants (not just the police and military). On the left, it
means reconsidering the decentralized, legalistic model of governance that has
guided progressive-led state expansion since the 1960s, reducing the veto power
that activist groups exercise in the courts, and shifting the focus of policy
design from ensuring that power is subject to progressive checks to ensuring
that power can actually be exercised effectively.
The Biden administration can’t do
much about the right’s hostility to government. But it can confront the
mistakes and divisions on the left.
A place to start is offered in another Niskanen paper, this
one by Nicholas Bagley, a law professor at the University of Michigan. In “The Procedure Fetish,” Bagley
argues that liberal governance has developed a puzzling preference for
legitimating government action through processes rather than outcomes. He
suggests, provocatively, that that’s because American politics in general, and
the Democratic Party in particular, is dominated by lawyers. Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris hold law degrees, as did Barack Obama and John Kerry and Bill and
Hillary Clinton before them. And this filters down through the party. “Lawyers,
not managers, have assumed primary responsibility for shaping administrative
law in the United States,” Bagley writes. “And if all you’ve got is a lawyer,
everything looks like a procedural problem.”
This is a way that America differs from peer countries:
Robert Kagan, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, has
called this “adversarial legalism,” and shown that it’s a distinctively
American way of checking state power. Bagley builds on this argument. “Inflexible
procedural rules are a hallmark of the American state,” he writes. “The
ubiquity of court challenges, the artificial rigors of notice-and-comment
rule-making, zealous environmental review, pre-enforcement review of agency
rules, picayune legal rules governing hiring and procurement, nationwide court
injunctions — the list goes on and on.”
The justification for these policies is that they make state
action more legitimate by ensuring that dissenting voices are heard. But they
also, over time, render government ineffective, and that cost is rarely
weighed. This gets to Bagley’s ultimate, and in my view, wisest, point.
“Legitimacy is not solely — not even primarily — a product of the procedures
that agencies follow,” he says. “Legitimacy arises more generally from the
perception that government is capable, informed, prompt, responsive, and fair.”
That is what we’ve lost — in fact, not just in perception.
Rebuilding that kind of government
isn’t a question of regulatory tweaks and interagency coordination. It’s
difficult, coalition-splitting work. It pits Democratic leaders against their
own allies, against organizations and institutions they’ve admired or joined,
against processes whose justifications they’ve long ago accepted and laws they
consider jewels of their past.
The environmental movement cheers when Biden says he wants
to decarbonize and fast. But if he said that in order to achieve that goal, he
wanted to reform or waive large sections of the National Environmental Policy
Act to speed the construction of clean energy infrastructure, he’d find himself
at war. What if he decided to argue that government workers shouldn’t just be
paid more, but they should be easier to both hire and fire?
I’ve spent most of my adult life
trawling think tank reports to better understand how to solve problems. When I
go looking for ideas on how to build state capacity on the left, I don’t find
much. There’s nothing like the depth of research, thought and energy that goes
into imagining health and climate and education policy. But those health,
climate and education plans depend, crucially, on a state capable of designing
and executing policy effectively. This is true at the federal level, and it is
even truer, and harder, at the state and local level.
So this is what I have become
certain of: Democrats spend too much time and energy imagining the policies
that a capable government could execute and not nearly enough time imagining
how to make a government capable of executing them. It is not only markets that
have failed."
These days China does industrial policy. A lot. After all, China is ruled mainly by technocrats. So the West is looking for ways to survive in the competition (our sun energy industry was wiped out by the Chinese competitors who used the money of docile German consumers, thank you very much ). The West on both sides of the pond is also considering industrial policy now.
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