“The sanctions against Russia hurt Germany and the whole
world more than the country they are aimed at.
This is what the chief economist at Landesbank
Hessen-Thüringen, Gertrud Traud, writes in her latest newsletter
“Vertrau(d)lich”.
The effects of the sanctions on the Russian economy are
significantly lower than initially expected.
Because on the one hand the country was well prepared, on
the other hand it was less isolated in the world than hoped. Although Russia's
industrial production was reduced in April, it was not as severe as in the global
financial crisis of 2009. Although skilled workers are leaving the country,
which is weakening its long-term growth potential, the regime could even be
strengthened as a result, Traud continues.
“Underestimated importance of raw materials for the world”
Because the shortage of imported goods has not destabilized
Russia as much as expected, on the contrary, the "pro-Putin mood" has
intensified. Trade with other countries is increasing. China is sticking to the
construction of a gas pipeline. Poorer countries that are dependent on Russian
supplies tend to be pro-Russian, and the sanctions increase the risk of a
crisis in such countries.
The stronger they turn out, the more "alternative"
ways of supply will also exist in Russia, for example smuggling or allocations
by the state. "Both should tend to increase cooperation with the
regime.""
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