Tehran Wields Influence via Drone --- Military alliance with Russia raises Iran's profile, complicates Kyiv's defense efforts

"Iran's deepening military support for Russia is creating a new challenge for Ukraine and its Western backers as they try to prevent its drones from giving Moscow an edge.

It is also putting pressure on Tehran's rivals in the Middle East to share what they have learned to defend against drone attacks, and provide more decisive support to Ukraine, analysts say.

Russia used dozens of Iranian-made drones to target the Ukrainian capital , Kyiv, on Monday as it pivots away from recent losses on the battlefield to hit infrastructure, including power plants ahead of winter. Iran has also dispatched military advisers to help the Russians more effectively use what are known as suicide drones, according to current and former U.S. officials.

Two weeks ago, the Ukrainian military said it had brought down a larger Iranian drone, known as a Mohajer-6, that can carry up to four bombs. Now, Ukraine is bracing for Iran to start supplying Russia with both cruise and ballistic missiles that could give Moscow accurate and far-reaching new firepower, according to Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.

"We must have instruments to neutralize the missile threats of the Russian-Iranian military alliance," Mr. Reznikov said, who called for more sanctions against Tehran.

He said the Iranian weapons should end any hesitation about providing Ukraine with Patriot missile-defense systems and more powerful long-range Atacms missiles for the high-precision Himars systems Washington has already supplied.

The emergence of Iranian drones as a central weapon in Russia's arsenal against Ukraine may be just the beginning of an expanding military role as Tehran's leaders look to exert greater power and influence outside the Middle East, analysts say, especially if there is an opportunity to antagonize the U.S. and its allies.

Though Iran has historically viewed Russia with geopolitical suspicion, ties between the countries have developed over the past decade. Tehran's dominant security and intelligence apparatus now sees Moscow as a trustworthy regional actor, said Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East program at Chatham House, an international-affairs think tank in London.

"They share a worldview that's predicated on suspicion of the West and particularly the U.S. The war is nothing short of an opportunity for stronger ties," she said. Iran's leaders, she said, "see, perhaps, a weakened Russia as good for Iran in that they can extract things. They are the junior partner but they're not as weak as they were before."

Iranian leaders say they have a burgeoning military alliance with Russia but deny providing Moscow with any weapons for use in Ukraine.

Ukrainian leaders are increasingly asking countries with experience combating Iranian drones for help, such as Israel.

"We need this experience and we need this help, and we need it as soon as possible, because we are under attack right now," said Yegor Dubynski, Ukraine's deputy minister of digital transformation, who is involved in the country's drone and counterdrone programs.

Mr. Reznikov said Ukraine is optimistic about obtaining Israeli support in countering threats from the air as well as cyberspace. "We are in constant contact with the political leadership of Israel and respect their position regarding the ongoing military operation," he said.

Israel is providing Ukraine with military intelligence and analysis to help counter Iranian drones, according to people briefed on the effort.

Iran's Middle East rivals -- Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among others -- have long experience battling drones from Iranian proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen or Iran itself. All three countries have condemned Russia's military operation but stopped short of joining Western sanctions against Moscow or sending Ukraine weaponry, for varying reasons.

That calculation isn't likely to change soon, analysts said.

Israel relies on Russian acquiescence to carry out strikes on Iranian targets in Syria, where Tehran helped President Bashar al-Assad repel U.S.-led efforts to topple the Syrian leader. Saudi Arabia's interests are intertwined with Russia on oil, and Riyadh's recent move to cut production fueled accusations that it was siding with Moscow -- allegations the Saudis deny.

Steven Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Iran's regional foes were aggravated by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's announcement last week that it would send jamming devices to help Ukraine counter drone attacks because the U.S. was slow to help the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia combat drone and missile strikes by Iran and the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen.

"The Saudis and the Emiratis are like, 'Where are our jammers?' " he said. "They do think there's a double standard."" [1]

1. World News: Tehran Wields Influence via Drone --- Military alliance with Russia raises Iran's profile, complicates Kyiv's defense efforts
Nissenbaum, Dion; Kalin, Stephen. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 19 Oct 2022: A.8.