"A series of high-profile events on the international stage has laid bare the perilous state of great-power relations as Russia and China challenge the U.S.-led global order and raised the prospect that they could deteriorate further.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia said Tuesday that Russia would suspend its participation in the last remaining nuclear-arms treaty between Moscow and Washington, a vestige of the security architecture that has helped keep the peace for decades.
With strains worse than at any time since the Cold War, Mr. Putin's threat to arms control in a speech in Moscow came a day after President Biden traveled to Ukraine and vowed "unending support" for Kyiv in a fight Mr. Putin considers an existential one for Russia.
Also in the mix: China, whose top diplomat, Wang Yi, excoriated the U.S. at a security conference in Germany before arriving on Tuesday in Moscow to see Russian officials and, people familiar with the matter said, likely propose a summit between Mr. Putin and President Xi Jinping of China.
The developments signal greater stress for the international system as Washington and its allies contend with a rising China, which has provided an important economic lifeline to Moscow, and a revanchist Russia.
Speaking to a crowd Tuesday in Warsaw, Mr. Biden said "Appetites of the autocrat cannot be appeased. They must be opposed."
Russia and China have a common interest in weakening U.S. dominance of the world order, which they likely assess has been strengthened by Western unity over Ukraine. An entente between the two would replicate their Cold War anti-Western partnership with one significant difference, that Beijing would be the dominant partner.
Antony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state, also warned last weekend that China was considering sending weapons to Russia, a step he said would cause a "serious problem" in U.S.-China relations.
U.S. officials said Beijing hasn't delivered lethal arms to Moscow, but Western analysts said doing so would suggest a decision in Beijing that its strategic interests lie in Russia not being stopped in Ukraine, increasing the prospects for further extending the military operation.
Mr. Putin told Russian lawmakers on Tuesday that he would withhold cooperation on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. He stopped short of withdrawing from the pact, however, and other Russian officials made clear that Moscow would continue to adhere to core treaty limits on the number of warheads and the missiles and bombers that carry them.
The Biden administration said in January that Russia had violated the treaty by refusing to allow inspections and rebuffing the U.S. requests to meet to discuss its compliance concerns. U.S. officials said they were seeking clarification whether Mr. Putin now intends to also withhold data on Russia's nuclear forces and refrain from notifying changes in the status and location of strategic weapons covered by the treaty.
Mr. Putin's speech was a sign arms control was being buffeted by the two sides' antagonism and that negotiating a follow-up agreement to New Start, which expires in February 2026, could be a struggle.
"I am pessimistic on the prospect of further limitations on strategic offensive arms, though sometimes out of crisis comes new momentum," said Rose Gottemoeller, who served as the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Start accord.
Adding another somber note, China has refused to be drawn into discussions of its modest but growing nuclear arsenal.
The visit to Europe by Mr. Wang was the first by a senior Chinese official since Mr. Xi cemented his hold over the Chinese leadership at a Communist Party Congress late last year. His speech in Munich contained a thinly disguised effort to open a rift between Europe and the U.S.
He described China and Europe as "two major forces, markets and civilizations." Echoing a phrase used by President Emmanuel Macron of France to describe a still-unrealized goal of European security independence from the U.S., Mr. Wang asked, "What role should Europe play to display its strategic autonomy?"
Meanwhile, in a clear reference to Washington, he said some actors "might have strategic goals larger than Ukraine itself."
Mr. Wang also said China would soon disclose a plan for peace in Ukraine. It would be based, he said, on respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty, the purposes and principles of the United Nations charter. Legitimate security concerns must be taken seriously, he indicated, an apparent reference to Russia's assertions that it was worried about the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. "Nuclear wars must not be fought and will not be won," he said.
Ulrich Speck, a German foreign-policy analyst, said some European governments were cautiously interested in Chinese involvement in a peace proposal because of the sway Beijing has in Moscow.
There are at least two problems with that approach, he said. "A quick cease-fire might benefit Russia by freezing territorial gains and giving Russia a break to replenish its stocks and prepare for the next attack," he said. A second problem: "China might not really be ready for pushing Russia seriously -- it may rather do fake diplomacy," he said." [1]
1. Global Tensions Echo Cold War
Fidler, Stephen; Gordon, Michael R. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 22 Feb 2023: A.1.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą