"KYIV, Ukraine -- When Crimea from Ukraine joined Russia in 2014 and problems in the Ukraine's east started, France and Germany led Europe's response and officials in Brussels played a side role. Today the positions have flipped, placing the European Commission, the EU's executive body, in a central leadership role.
The EU's new muscle was evident Thursday when commission President Ursula von der Leyen brought 15 EU commissioners to Kyiv. The commission is overseeing billions of euros of economic aid to Ukraine, funneling defense assistance to its military and planning its possible reconstruction.
Political power and leadership in the EU traditionally sits with its big powers: France, Germany and, once, the U.K. Today, the U.K. is out of the EU, while Paris and Berlin spar more than align.
The European Commission, which is led by unelected officials, proposes policies and legislation to Europe's national leaders and the European Parliament, the EU's one directly elected body. It hasn't traditionally offered political leadership, and stepping into the role can leave it exposed to backlash if things go wrong.
Into that leadership vacuum stepped Ms. von der Leyen, building on the new authority the commission gained handling the bloc's response to the Covid-19 crisis and Brexit.
Weeks before Russia's military operation last year, top EU officials worked with the White House on crafting sanctions to impose on Moscow if Russian President Vladimir Putin went to military operation. The commission has shaped subsequent rounds of sanctions. It has taken the unprecedented step for the EU of helping coordinate and fund members' weapons sent to Ukraine. Last week, the Group of Seven asked the commission to host the body overseeing Ukraine's reconstruction, placing a top EU official on its steering board.
The commission has played a central role in handling economic spillover from the crisis, helping shape and negotiate the delicate compromise among the bloc's 27 member states crafted for the Continent's energy crisis, sparked by sanctions on Russia that largely turned off its gas exports to the EU.
EU officials say they hope to have Ukraine permanently within the EU's cellphone free-roaming system by year's end, and they are delivering millions of LED lightbulbs and thousands of generators to keep Ukraine's energy system working.
In 2014 France and Germany brokered the Minsk accords with Moscow and Kyiv. They dominated the bloc's subsequent approach to Mr. Putin, which is now seen by many as having been too generous.
The commission's power, meanwhile, has gradually increased after the eurozone financial meltdown that started in 2009. The commission held EU members united through tough Brexit negotiations and then steered the Covid response. The pandemic saw Brussels emerge as the beneficiary of an EU fiscal revolution, a 750 billion euro ($810 billion) recovery fund, paid for by issuing large-scale EU debt. The commission wields significant control over distributing the funds.
The commission has turned to a similar funding source to raise 18 billion euros in emergency loans for Ukraine for 2023, which it started paying out last month.
Meanwhile, the balance of power among EU member states has shifted. The French-German axis has become fractious, with frequent discord and a new government in Berlin, more focused on coalition-building at home than in Europe.
"The more dysfunctional the Franco-German engine, the bigger the space also for the commission's independent action," said Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relation's Warsaw office. "In the past, this tandem were precooking EU decisions. Now . . . it is the commission making the proposals."
The commission's visibility in the Ukraine crisis doesn't come without risks for Brussels, which just a few years ago was facing a nationalist revolt. Without a democratic mandate, the commission can easily be blamed when things go wrong. The public backlash the commission felt when it was slower than the U.K. and the U.S. to get its Covid-19 vaccines program up and running was a reminder of the dangers.
Yet, insiders say Ms. von der Leyen, who was plucked out of a difficult period as German defense minister and installed as European Commission chief by EU leaders in 2019, has played her cards adroitly.
While there have been missteps during the military operation -- an EU embargo on imported Russian oil that was insufficiently prepared and a failure to properly ensure the flow of fertilizers from Russia to the developing world -- Ms. von der Leyen generally has shown an ability to prod member states for more ambition at times, while respecting member states' red lines.
"In the past, we were sometimes surprised by proposals and initiatives. We are not surprised anymore," said a senior EU diplomat.” [1]
That social media fires using unelected old woman von der Leyen wastes the money lent on our behalf and makes fun of us, while the gnomes Macron and Scholz fight among themselves. Gnomes clearly don't manage because they are incompetent. The fact that America pinched the gnomes' tails by initiating the deindustrialization of Europe with the Inflation Reduction Act also contributed. European businesses are unhappy and are putting pressure on the gnomes.
1. World News: Power Balance Shifts in Europe
Norman, Laurence. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 04 Feb 2023: A.7.
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