Layoffs Aren't Denting Labor Demand

"All those tech layoffs didn't do much to dent the job market. The recent roiling of banks might not either.

U.S. job growth has remained remarkably strong, despite the Federal Reserve's sharply increasing interest rates over the past year, the crumbling of housing, and several rounds of headline-grabbing layoffs from companies such as Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon.com. With businesses ranging from hospitals to hotels struggling to get to adequate staffing levels, the number of people losing jobs has paled in comparison to those who have been getting them.

Not that the number of people getting laid off across the economy has been high.

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported there were a seasonally adjusted 198,000 new unemployment claims filed in the week ended Saturday, up a bit from the previous week's 191,000, but still a very low figure. In 2019 -- a year characterized by job-market strength -- claims averaged about 220,000.

It can take time for people to file for unemployment after losing their jobs, but in the time since trouble at Silicon Valley Bank first sent convulsions through the stock market on March 9, there has been no notable pickup in job losses.

Moreover, demand from employers aiming to hire doesn't appear to have slackened.

An index of overall U.S. job openings from job-listing site Indeed was, as of last Friday, actually a bit above where it was before Silicon Valley Bank's troubles hit. Though down from the highs it reached in late 2021, it is still one-third higher than before the pandemic.

By a similar token, a survey of chief financial officers conducted by Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve banks of Atlanta and Richmond in late February through early March, 17% of respondents counted labor quality and availability as their most pressing concern -- more than any other factor, including inflation, monetary policy and the health of the economy. An additional 4.8% put labor costs as their main concern.

"A lot of firms never were able to hire as many as they wanted in the first place," says Duke economist John Graham, who is the survey's academic director. "Even if the economy flattens, they are still trying to fill up those empty slots."

The degree to which the banking sectors' troubles might eventually reduce demand for workers is, of course, uncertain. Even if the danger of more deposit runs has been contained, regional and community banks will likely be more careful with their lending for some time, as well as experiencing more regulatory scrutiny.

That said, Goldman Sachs economists point out that lending standards had already tightened due to recession concerns even before Silicon Valley collapsed, so any further tightening might only represent an incremental change in credit conditions. They further point out that because there are so many unfilled job openings, even if there are fewer expansions financed by small-bank lending, many people will find employment nonetheless.

Banking troubles might lower the temperature on the job market, making it easier for companies with openings to hire workers, and taking some pressure off wage growth. But they won't freeze it." [1]

 

So, if you are preparing to emigrate to the West, go boldly - there will be work. If you are preparing to negotiate for better working conditions, now is the right time.

 

1. Layoffs Aren't Denting Labor Demand
Lahart, Justin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 31 Mar 2023: B.12.

Žaliuosius nugalėtojus ir pralaimėjusius lengviau pastebėti

  „Politikai visoje Europoje aštrina savo kartais miglotą klimato politiką. Nors vėjo ir saulės energijos akcijos yra aiškios laimėtojos, varžtai veržiasi ir tose pramonės šakose, kurios velkasi ant kulnų ar parduoda tik žaliąsias svajones.

 

     Ketvirtadienį Europos Parlamentas ir Europos Sąjungos lyderiai susitarė kelti pagrindinius tvarumo tikslus. Tai svarbus žingsnis, siekiant ambicingų Europos Komisijos nustatytų tikslų paversti įstatymu.

 

     Pagal planą, iki 2030 m. atsinaujinanti energija sudarys mažiausiai 42,5% viso bloko energijos suvartojimo. 

 

Remiantis ekspertų grupės „Ember“ duomenimis, pernai vėjo ir saulės energija pagamino 22% ES elektros energijos ir pirmą kartą aplenkė dujas. 

 

Be to, ketvirtadienį JK vyriausybė paskelbė atnaujintą žaliąją strategiją, paskelbdama daugiau investicijų į elektromobilių įkrovimo taškus, be kitų priemonių.

 

     Naujasis ES tikslas yra šiek tiek didesnis, nei siekė kai kurios vyriausybės, ir sustiprina investicijų į atsinaujinančios energijos infrastruktūrą poreikį. Europos švarios energijos įmonių akcijos ketvirtadienio prekyboje pakilo. Didžiausias vėjo turbinų gamintojas „Vestas Wind Systems“ išaugo 5 proc., o mažesnė Vokietijos bendrovė „SMA Solar Technology“, gaminanti inverterius saulės energijos ūkiams, – 22,6 proc. „Nel“, „McPhy Energy“ ir „ITM Power“, gaminančios elektrolizatorius, naudojamus atsinaujinančiam vandeniliui gaminti, gavo naudos.

 

     Tačiau naujajame plane taip pat išskiriamos pramonės šakos, kurios lėtai darė savo verslą tvaresnį. Jis nori, kad iki dešimtmečio pabaigos pusė visos pastatams šildyti ir vėsinimui sunaudojamos energijos būtų atsinaujinanti, ir nustatė privalomą metinį padidinimą nacionaliniu lygiu. Jei papildomų išlaidų, susijusių su pastatų ekologiškumu, nebus galima perkelti į nuomininkus arba kompensuoti subsidijomis, tai nukentės komercinio nekilnojamojo turto savininkų pelno maržos.

 

     Transporto ir pramonės įmonės taip pat turi padidinti atsinaujinančios energijos naudojimą arba pereiti prie švaresnio vandenilio. Tai gali padidinti jų išlaidas, bet taip pat paskatins besiformuojančios atsinaujinančios vandenilio pramonės paklausą. Šį mėnesį Briuselis paskelbė įkursiantis Europos vandenilio banką, kuris subsidijuos didesnes anglies neturinčių dujų gamybos sąnaudas.

 

     Prieštaringai vertinamu žingsniu ES neseniai pasiūlė, kad vandenilis, pagamintas, naudojant branduolinę energiją, būtų įtrauktas į naujus atsinaujinančio kuro tikslus. Didžiosios Britanijos ministras pirmininkas Rishi Sunak taip pat pareiškė, kad JK „atgaivins branduolinę energiją“ ketvirtadienio energetikos pertvarkos metu.

 

     Atsinaujinančios energijos tiekimo grandinėms gali būti sunku patenkinti visą papildomą paklausą, kurią sukuria tokie tikslai, ypač saulės energijos komponentams. ES, kaip ir JAV, gamyba pastaraisiais metais buvo apleista dėl Kinijos importo, todėl ją reikia atkurti. Dar viena kliūtis yra leisti vėluoti. ES nori, kad atsinaujinančios energijos projektai būtų „svarbesni visuomenės interesai“, o tai reiškia, kad juos bus sunkiau sustabdyti imantis teisinių veiksmų.

 

     Konkrečios detalės apie tai, kaip šalys planuoja pasiekti grynąjį nulį, pamažu leidžia investuotojams lengviau suprasti, kaip perėjimas prie švaresnių energijos šaltinių paveiks įvairias pramonės šakas. Tai apims ir aukas. JK energetikos bendrovės „Drax“ akcijos ketvirtadienį atpigo 10 proc., o vėliau atsigavo, kai jos planai dėl biomasės anglies surinkimo projekto iš pradžių neatitiko vyriausybės subsidijų.

 

     Tikslesnės klimato taisyklės turės ir daugiau neigiamų pusių.“ [1]

1. Green Winners, Losers Easier to Spot
Ryan, Carol.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 31 Mar 2023: B.12.

Green Winners, Losers Easier to Spot

"Politicians across Europe are sharpening their sometimes vague climate policies. While wind and solar stocks are clear winners, the screws are also tightening on industries that have been dragging their heels or selling green dreams.

On Thursday, the European Parliament and European Union leaders reached an agreement to raise key sustainability targets. This is an important step in the process of turning ambitious goals set out by the European Commission into law.

By 2030, renewable energy will make up at least 42.5% of the bloc's overall energy consumption, according to the plan. Last year, wind and solar generated 22% of EU electricity and overtook gas for the first time, according to data from the think tank Ember. Also on Thursday, the U.K. government released its updated green strategy, announcing more investment in charge points for electric vehicles among other measures.

The new EU goal is slightly higher than some governments were pushing for and strengthens the case for investing in renewable energy infrastructure. Shares of European clean-energy companies were higher in Thursday trading. Top wind-turbine producer Vestas Wind Systems was up 5%, while SMA Solar Technology, a smaller German company that makes inverters for solar farms, rose 22.6%. Nel, McPhy Energy and ITM Power, which make electrolyzers used to generate renewable hydrogen, all gained.

But the new plan also singles out industries that have been slow to make their businesses more sustainable. It wants half of all energy used to heat and cool buildings to be renewable by the end of the decade and has set mandatory annual increases at the national level. If the extra cost of making buildings greener can't be passed on to tenants or offset with subsidies, it will hit the profit margins of commercial real-estate landlords.

Transport and industrial companies also need to increase their use of renewable energy or shift to using more clean hydrogen. That may add to their costs, but it will also stimulate demand for the nascent renewable hydrogen industry. This month, Brussels said it would set up a European Hydrogen Bank to subsidize the higher cost of producing carbon-free gas.

In a controversial move, the EU recently proposed that hydrogen made using nuclear power be recognized under new renewable fuel targets. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also said the U.K. will "revive nuclear" as part of Thursday's energy overhaul.

Renewable-energy supply chains may find it hard to cope with all the extra demand created by such targets, especially for solar-power components. In the EU as in the U.S., manufacturing has been hollowed out in recent years by Chinese imports and needs to be rebuilt. Permitting delays are another barrier. The EU wants to make renewable energy projects of "overriding public interest," meaning they will be harder to stop through legal action.

Concrete details about how countries plan to get to net zero are slowly making it easier for investors to piece together how the shift to cleaner sources of energy will affect different industries. This will include casualties. Shares in U.K. power company Drax fell 10% at the open Thursday, before recovering, after its plans for a biomass carbon-capture project didn't initially qualify for government subsidies.

More-precise climate rules will increasingly have downsides too." [1]

1. Green Winners, Losers Easier to Spot
Ryan, Carol.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 31 Mar 2023: B.12.