Kyiv's Offensive's Failure Tests Biden's Strategy

"The slow pace of Ukraine's counteroffensive against entrenched Russians is dimming hopes that negotiations for an end to the fighting could come this year and raising the specter of an open-ended conflict, according to Western officials.

A potential stalemate would test President Biden's stated strategy of pouring billions of dollars in military aid into Ukraine, to enable Kyiv to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength. It could also challenge the West's continuing ability to supply weaponry that is already in short supply, and provide political fodder to those opposing U.S. support for Zelensky.

"Obviously it's easier to provide more support when things are going well," said John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and an advocate of expanding military assistance to Kyiv. But the Biden administration doesn't have much choice other than to continue providing weapons, he said.

Backing away from Ukraine and allowing even a partial Russian victory "would be the signature failure of Biden foreign policy that would dwarf the Afghan withdrawal," added Herbst, who is now at the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank.

Biden has staked his foreign-policy credentials on this conflict. He has directed more than $43 billion in security assistance to Kyiv, but is facing challenges in Congress from some members of the Republican Party.

As Biden moves toward a presidential contest next year, Russian President Vladimir Putin has more of an incentive to try to outlast the West. Two top contenders for the Republican nomination -- former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis -- have suggested they might temper military support for Ukraine.

Russia has also shown little inclination to negotiate.

"The Russians are more than happy to talk about Ukraine's capitulation," said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "I don't think they are seriously interested in any talks about a resolution of the Ukraine crisis short of that at this point."

Ukraine's counteroffensive, launched at the start of June, is aimed at retaking some of the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory controlled by Russians. While Ukraine has seized back some territory, it hasn't yet achieved a breakthrough that might force Russia to the negotiating table.

With neither Russia nor Ukraine inclined to negotiate, the White House has few options for now but to stay the course, hoping for an eventual battlefield breakthrough against entrenched Russian forces -- or new political cracks in Moscow.

U.S. officials acknowledge the counteroffensive is going slowly, but say it is too soon to assess the effectiveness until Ukraine commits more of its combat brigades.

The question is whether the U.S. and its allies have the resolve to continue support, or even expand it, if the offensive continues to fall short of expectations.

Speaking last week at the Aspen Security Forum, Canada's Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland openly worried about the ability of Western allies to stay the course. "My biggest fear for Ukraine, actually, is us," she said." [1]

1. World News: Kyiv's Offensive's Failure Tests Biden's Strategy. Lubold, Gordon; Gordon, Michael R;
Strobel, Warren P. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 26 July 2023: A.10.