Bitter Polish Election Reflects Stress of Conflict on Its Doorstep

"WARSAW -- Poland is in the final stages of an electoral campaign that is one of the most consequential in Europe this year, as a major U.S. ally in supporting Ukraine struggles with the economic and social fallout from the conflict.

Poland has been on the front lines of the impact from events in Ukraine. The country has taken in more than a million refugees. Its farmers are struggling with a wave of cheaper Ukrainian imports. It is scrambling to expand its armed forces and mobilize them on its eastern flank.

Now, as the Ukraine conflict drags on without a resolution in sight, Polish parties are fighting a bitter electoral campaign ahead of this weekend's parliamentary elections, with each side arguing that it can best protect Polish citizens and cope with the challenges of a conflict on its doorstep.

Some worry that the mudslinging between the incumbent Law and Justice Party and its challengers will undermine national unity when Poles should stand together in the face of Russia.

The right-wing Law and Justice Party, known as PiS, has accused opposition candidate Donald Tusk of being a foreign agent and prepared to relinquish Polish territory to Russia if Moscow were to invade.

Tusk, a centrist former prime minister who later served as president of the European Council, has said PiS and its leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, are attempting to "brainwash" Poles the same way the Nazis and communists did.

Amid the storm, though, are questions that could make Poland's election the most significant in the West this year -- including how the country should manage its difficult relationship with the rest of Europe and, crucially, the growing risks to its own security as the Ukraine conflict drags on.

"This election is a story about security, protecting people in the face of various dangers, including from the East, from Russia and its proxy Belarus," said Marcin Duma, chief executive of IBRiS, an independent Warsaw-based pollster.

Throughout the campaign, Kaczynski, who is 74 and, as head of PiS, is Poland's leading political figure, says his party has handled the turmoil from the conflict better than his opponents would have done. He has given voice to fears among older voters and those in Poland's east about the country's economic future and the impact of immigration. That is to prevent votes from going to the far-right party, Confederation, or Konfederacja in Polish, which has made inroads with its pro-business, nationalist rhetoric, along with its opposition to providing further support to Ukraine.

The upstart party's performance could prove an important bellwether for growing fatigue with the conflict in a country that has prided itself as Kyiv's boldest ally since 2022.

Polls show that PiS could win about 37% of the vote, less than the 44% it won in 2019, with Tusk's alliance projected to secure around 30%. With support for Confederation ranging between 8% and 14%, the party might garner enough votes to potentially prevent either side from easily forming a government.

In the eight years under its rule, the government has passed anti-LGBTQ laws and sharply restricted access to abortion. The moves have appealed to conservative Catholics but angered many, leading to large protests. The government's stance against gay rights and abortion, while popular among some Poles, has created friction with the European Union, which has issued formal criticism of both policies.

The government, which has benefited greatly from EU funds, also has clashed with Brussels in recent years over judicial reforms passed by Warsaw in 2019 that removed a number of elderly judges." [1]

1. World News: Bitter Polish Election Reflects Stress of Conflict on Its Doorstep. Grove, Thomas;
Jeznach, Karolina.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 14 Oct 2023: A.11.