"The flying taxi euphoria seems to have cooled down a bit. A study shows possible lucrative fields of application, but none are suitable for mass production for the time being.
The premiere was smaller than announced in advance. For the Olympic Games in Paris, the German manufacturer Volocopter did not launch an electrically powered flying taxi with passengers, but only as a demonstration flight with a pilot. The reason was that - contrary to what was often promised - the type approval from the European Aviation Authority EASA is still missing. Volocopter boss Dirk Hoke nevertheless spoke of a "milestone" being reached. "We have shown what commercial flights could look like," he told the FAZ.
But this does not just require functioning technology and approval, the prospect of a lucrative business is also necessary, as a study by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the consulting firm Roland Berger shows.
The DLR and the Berger consultants have calculated whether it is even possible to operate flying taxis economically. Their conclusion: Yes, there are possibilities, but some hopes in the past may have been exaggerated.
The possibilities for electric flying taxis "will remain a premium niche market in the first few years with successful but limited applications and routes in commercial operation," writes study author Manfred Hader. The DLR and Roland Berger looked at the potential market for vertical take-off aircraft with electric propulsion and a maximum of 19 passengers. They calculated three scenarios - an inner-city on-demand service for individual passengers, a shuttle service on a fixed route to a major city airport and a short-haul national connection such as from Hamburg to Sylt.
Fast, but expensive
In terms of travel time, the flying taxi is always ahead of other means of transport, but not in terms of the possible ticket price. A taxi flight on the 12-kilometer distance from Hamburg Central Station to the Airbus plant would cost - depending on the scenario assumptions and the battery technology used - 193 to 392 dollars (175 to 355 euros). In the worst case, it could be cheaper to take a conventional helicopter.
The bill is cheaper for an airport shuttle that is used by at least three travelers. This would result in ticket prices of the equivalent of 74 to 158 euros, while a taxi that takes four times as long on the road would probably cost at least 65 euros. For the air taxi from Hamburg to Sylt with an average of 4.5 passengers, the study comes to around 200 to 300 euros, an amount that is also charged for regional jet traffic.
The more sophisticated the business model becomes, the lower the air taxi ticket prices are likely to be. This includes ensuring that landing sites, known as vertiports, do not charge too high fees and that batteries for the propulsion system last longer.
Replacing the pilot on board with a remote control or an automatic control system could also bring efficiency benefits, not least because there would then be space for another paying passenger.
Technology is not the only challenge
Overcoming technical hurdles and approval issues, which manufacturers such as Volocopter or its German rival Lilium are currently stuck with, will not be the only thing that will determine the success or failure of flying taxi manufacturers, according to the DLR and Roland Berger. The manufacturers themselves would have to demonstrate worthwhile applications; on inner-city routes, half of the operating costs could be spent on using the vertiport and maintenance, including battery changes.
Only those companies "that offer technically and commercially viable solutions will ultimately survive," it is said.
Meanwhile, the flying taxi euphoria among financiers seems to have cooled somewhat. According to study data, investors invested less than a billion dollars annually up to 2019, but this rose sharply to 7.5 billion dollars in 2021.
Last year, the figure was only 1.3 billion dollars for this young aviation segment. Volocopter recently experienced a financial bottleneck, government guarantees were requested, but in the end investors stepped in and provided money for the further approval process. Lilium is also working on a new round of financing to enable manned flights in 2025 and series production from 2026. The fact that the Arab airline Saudia recently ordered 100 flying taxis, including options, so that they can be used in feeder traffic is proving to be a support.
More than 800 flying taxis have been ordered from manufacturers all over the world, either permanently or optionally. The study authors nevertheless expect a selection from the low double-digit number of providers globally.
They predict that "some companies will likely be affected by the market, and will disappear."" [1]
1. Flugtaxis fliegen wohl vorerst in der Nische
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Aug 15, 2024. Von Timo Kotowski
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