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2024 m. spalio 31 d., ketvirtadienis

If import of stuff produced by cheap foreign workers in foreign countries will be stopped, it doesn't mean that you will be able to import cheap workers themselves. That era is gone


"On the campaign trail, Donald Trump routinely promises he will end illegal immigration. Behind the scenes, his closest advisers and allies on the topic are also drawing up plans that would restrict many forms of legal immigration, which could affect the ability of businesses to hire foreign workers.

Outside advisers including Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump's immigration agenda when he was in the White House, and such groups as the America First Policy Institute have been preparing executive orders, regulations and memos for a future homeland security secretary to sign that would narrow legal ways to migrate. That is according to interviews with a dozen former Trump administration officials, a review of public plans published by the campaign and outside groups aligned with the Trump campaign.

While public attention centers on the hot-button topic of illegal migration, how Trump and his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris approach lesser-known legal immigration issues could have a broad impact, from U.S. citizens looking to bring foreign family members into the country to businesses that rely on visas to fill jobs ranging from software engineering to positions at theme parks.

Plans include a return of some controversial policies from Trump's term in the White House, including a ban on travel to the U.S. from several Muslim-majority countries, a halt on refugee resettlement from overseas, and the "Public Charge" rule, a policy that seeks to block immigrants who are low-income, disabled or speak limited English so those people wouldn't eventually use public benefits.

Last time around, Trump's team struggled to fully implement some of those policies because they weren't issued properly, allowing them to be toppled by lawsuits from Democratic states and immigration advocacy groups. Officials have learned from those experiences and have reworked them to reduce the legal risk, say former administration officials and immigration analysts.

"They are explicitly more prepared this time around," said Kristie De Pena, senior vice president of policy at the Niskanen Center, a Washington think tank with libertarian roots that supports immigration. De Pena is one of several analysts tracking the emerging plans by parsing policy papers, social-media posts and public statements.

The plans haven't taken on the same level of urgency that Trump, a Republican, has placed on illegal immigration or enacting mass deportations. And some of the steps could face pushback from newfound allies in the business and tech community like Elon Musk. Musk has repeatedly championed legal immigration but said illegal migration should be reduced.

The ideas being explored include a pause in accepting new applications for categories of immigration that currently have large backlogs, ranging from asylum to requests for employment-based green cards for Indian tech workers.

Trump's campaign didn't respond to requests for an interview or clarification of Trump's positions for this story. A campaign spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said in an emailed statement, "President Trump has repeatedly said that he supports legal immigration and wants as many people to come into the country, as long as they come LEGALLY."

The Biden administration reversed many of Trump's restrictions on legal immigration, though it also made moves that have angered business groups, including placing new requirements on farmers and other seasonal employers looking to hire foreign workers.

The philosophy underlying Trump's advisers' opposition to legal immigration -- which Trump himself has also articulated -- is that immigrants are often willing to accept lower wages for jobs that, if they paid more, U.S. citizens would take on.

That argument has taken on increased urgency this election as Trump has sought to make the case that immigrants, no matter how they entered the country, are also driving up the cost of living, including for housing and car insurance. Some, including Trump's running mate JD Vance, have argued that too much immigration, no matter the source, can harm the fabric of American society.

"There's a difference between having 500,000 or a million newcomers per year or 10 million or 30 million or 50 million per year," Vance told The Wall Street Journal last April. "And I think that we clearly are reaching a point where we just can't absorb the pace of immigration in this country."

Some business groups are wary of restricting access to imported workers. "We do have some concern over the rhetoric that immigrants are taking jobs from American workers," said Stephanie Martz, general counsel for the National Retail Federation. "We have very, very low unemployment right now. We have wages going up."

Surveys show that while most people prioritize reducing illegal immigration, most also still favor immigrants coming in legally.

Trump himself has occasionally differentiated between illegal and legal immigration, saying in a Univision town hall this month, for example, that "we want workers, and we want them to come in, but they have to come in legally." He made similar comments during his 2016 campaign.

Trump also took people by surprise when he suggested on a tech podcast this summer that he would support issuing an automatic green card to every international student who earns a college diploma in the country -- comments his campaign later walked back.

Many of Trump's proponents and detractors, however, say that isn't how he governed.

In 2017, for example, he held an event at the White House to honor the introduction of a bill called the Raise Act, which would have cut legal immigration levels roughly in half and ended the system allowing U.S. citizens to sponsor their parents and siblings for green cards, which conservatives refer to as "chain migration." The bill failed to advance through Congress.

And in 2020, with the onset of the pandemic, Trump banned the entry of immigrants on a range of temporary and permanent work-based visas, including the H-1B for highly skilled foreign professionals.

An analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy, a pro-immigration think tank, found Trump's administration adopted 52 policies to restrict access to visas and green cards for high-skilled workers, and didn't adopt any policies to ease their access." [1]

1. Trump Advisers Draw Up Plans To Restrict Legal Immigration. Hackman, Michelle.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 31 Oct 2024: A.1.

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