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2025 m. kovo 15 d., šeštadienis

The British are trying to keep the conflict in Ukraine proceeding as before, forcing Zelensky to make unreasonable demands from the Russians


"LONDON -- Hours after his Oval Office fallout with President Trump last month, Volodymyr Zelensky flew to London to be greeted by cheering crowds and an embrace from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

When the two were inside 10 Downing Street, however, Starmer delivered a more sober message to the Ukrainian leader: It was time to make amends with Trump.

Starmer urged an emotionally raw Zelensky to focus on getting Trump to face off with the Kremlin, not Kyiv, according to officials familiar with the matter. "We told him to keep his eye on the prize," said one official. British and French officials encouraged Zelensky to apologize to Trump, and advised Ukrainian officials on how best to pen a public mea culpa.

For Ukraine's European allies, the stakes were high. Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron had spent weeks meeting and calling Trump in a carefully choreographed diplomatic dance aimed at ensuring the White House understood it couldn't let Russia steamroll Ukraine during peace talks. But after Zelensky's White House meeting, that plan seemed to lay in ruins.

In the ensuing days, Ukraine's allies, led by France and the U.K., leaned on Zelensky in a way they haven't since the conflict began in 2022, pushing for concessions the U.S. demanded as they raced to help craft a truce that the Trump administration later accepted and then presented to Moscow.

For the Europeans, pressing Zelensky was a change in tack. This account of how they managed that is based on conversations with about a dozen officials familiar with the talks.

At the heart of a disagreement between Zelensky and Trump was the issue of trust. Ukraine had long insisted that it could only enter a cease-fire if security guarantees from its Western allies were locked in. Those guarantees were seen as crucial to deter Russia from freezing the conflict, rearming, and returning to re-invade.

For the White House, however, all that was needed as a guarantee was a mineral-rights deal Trump had pressed for. The White House argued that the Kremlin wouldn't breach a deal it had reached with Trump.

After arriving in London, Zelensky traveled to Lancaster House in London where officials from some 18 countries had gathered in a show of support.

The Europeans had to ensure Zelensky understood that his bargaining position was much weaker after the White House meeting.

After huddling with Starmer and Macron, the contours of a compromise began to take shape. Ukraine would accept an initial 30-day truce without pushing for upfront security guarantees. This would be followed by confidence-building steps leading to a broader cease-fire and peace talks.

But things would get worse before they got better. Zelensky said in an interview that peace was still "very very far away." Trump responded that this was the "worst statement that could have been made by Zelensky."

Shortly after, the U.S. suspended military support and some intelligence backing for Ukraine. Weapons supplies that were set to cross the Polish border into Ukraine were halted.

On the advice of senior British and French diplomats, Zelensky sent a public apology message ahead of Trump's Congressional address, saying Ukraine was ready to sign the minerals deal and acknowledging that the Oval Office meeting didn't go as planned. "It is regrettable that it happened this way," he wrote on X, in a style that sounded akin to British diplomatic demarche.

Zelensky separately sent a letter to Trump, which U.S. officials later said included an apology for the White House bust-up.

French officials say that Trump and Macron, who built a good working relationship in Trump's first term, have been in contact by text or calls almost daily in the past couple of weeks. Starmer and his national security adviser Jonathan Powell were in contact with Trump and his national security adviser.

The European focus shifted to figuring out what exactly it would take to get Washington to lift the weapons suspension. Last weekend, Starmer dispatched Powell to Kyiv to prepare Ukraine for concessions ahead of what would be a critical meeting between Zelensky's top aides and the U.S. in Saudi Arabia.

Two major issues were on the table for Powell: The scope of the cease-fire and confidence-building measures to open the way to formal peace talks.

France, Britain and Germany initially crafted with Ukraine a truce proposal in the skies, in the sea, and on critical infrastructure for 30 days. It excluded a land cease-fire because it would be hard to effectively monitor the war's 800-mile front line.

However, the White House wanted to stop all fighting. In the meeting with Powell, the Ukrainians agreed. They also agreed on a list of steps Ukraine and Russia could take to lock in a truce, which included prisoner swaps and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia during the war.

After eight hours of talks in Saudi Arabia, the two sides emerged with a joint statement where Ukraine committed "to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day cease-fire" if Russia also agrees. Washington agreed to "immediately lift" the suspension of military aid and intelligence to Ukraine.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in language that European diplomats say they were pressing on Washington, put it succinctly: "The ball is now in Russia's court."" [1]

Both Americans and Russians know that to make peace last, the safety architecture for everybody involved has to be formed. The British with their quick truce proposal want to make a huge black hole of safety in the middle of Europe with potential to ignite a nuclear WWIII. 

1.  World News: Europeans Orchestrated Kyiv Truce Proposal. Colchester, Max; Norman, Laurence. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 Mar 2025: A9.

 

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