“ami. BERLIN. Russia’s conflict with Ukraine is once again having direct repercussions on Europe’s oil supply. Recently, Hungary and Slovakia have once again been cut off from Russian oil deliveries because the pipeline was damaged during fighting in Ukraine. In Kyiv, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha preemptively posted photos of the burning pipeline and identified Russia as the culprit, aiming to head off any accusations of blame from Hungary. The Slovak government stated that its energy supply remained secure; it noted that it possessed sufficient reserves and anticipated a speedy resumption of deliveries.
The fact that Hungary and Slovakia are still importing Russian oil at all is due to an exemption from the Russia sanctions granted to them by the USA. Washington and the EU’s primary objective, after all, is to halt the sale of Russian oil and gas in order to deplete Moscow’s military chest. This strategy includes exerting political pressure—for instance, on India—to reduce its oil imports.
Russia’s "shadow fleet," which transports the oil, is also coming under increasing pressure. In January, the German Federal Police forced a tanker in the Baltic Sea to turn back for the first time, while the French Navy intercepted another vessel in the Mediterranean. Prior to this, other tankers linked to the shadow fleet had sustained damage from explosions during attacks in the Black Sea, as well as off the coast of Africa. This drove up insurance premiums—and consequently freight rates—making oil exports more expensive. Furthermore, the EU’s reported intention to impose sanctions this month against the Georgian oil terminal at Kulevi—allegedly for violations of the embargo against Russia—would mark a significant new development. According to sources in Brussels, the EU has never before imposed "energy sanctions" against a third country.
Meanwhile, the USA is expanding its geopolitical influence in the energy sector across Europe and the Near East. According to data from the analytics firm S&P Global, the EU sourced 78 percent of its growing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA last year. In the previous year the share had still stood at 58 percent. In parallel, the USA is forcing a withdrawal of Russian energy companies from the European market. In Washington, officials are less squeamish than their counterparts in Brussels when it comes to threatening sanctions against third countries—yet they are proving successful.
For instance, as a result of threatened sanctions, the Serbian government has initiated the sale of its national energy company, NIS—in which the Moscow-based state-owned giant Gazprom holds a majority stake—to the Hungarian firm MOL. In Germany, the future remains uncertain for the refinery in Schwedt an der Oder, which is owned by the Russian conglomerate Rosneft, albeit currently under German state administration.
Meanwhile, in late January, the Russian energy group Lukoil—which primarily operates refineries, gas stations, and Black Sea gas projects in Romania and Bulgaria—announced that it would sell its holdings to the US investment group Carlyle. In doing so, President Donald Trump is not only opening up new markets for American products—such as LNG—but also opening the door for investors to pursue business ventures on the ground.
The fact that sanctions against Russia serve merely as a tool for the geo-economic and energy-policy containment of Moscow is evident across Western Asia: in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and the Caucasus region. After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Trump in late September—seeking to placate him regarding tariffs and the purchase of F-35 fighter jets—Turkey did more than just sign long-term LNG supply contracts with the USA. In the months that followed, contracts were also concluded with the energy giants Exxon and Chevron—in partnership with the Turkish state-owned energy company TPAO—for the development of Turkish oil and gas reserves.
It is not only in Venezuela—following the ousting of the country's president—that Trump seeks to bring US energy giants into the game. Bloomberg lists Libya, Algeria, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan as additional target countries. The agency also quotes Samantha Carl-Yoder, who—under the administration of Barack Obama and during Trump’s first term—oversaw the international expansion accompanied by U.S. companies—noting that Trump’s team "is conducting this whole operation in a manner unprecedented under previous administrations, even Republican ones."
For Clay Neff, head of Chevron Upstream, this translates as follows: "Pragmatic U.S. energy policy, combined with improved regulatory and fiscal frameworks in resource-rich nations, creates an environment that supports responsible investment." And this list of countries is not yet complete. In Syria—a former Russian ally against which Trump lifted economic sanctions in December—the U.S. Special Envoy for the country brokered an agreement between Chevron and the government in Damascus. The latter intends to to exploit the gas and oil deposits in the country's northeast, which had previously been under Kurdish control. Joining the effort are the US corporations Baker Hughes and Argent LNG, along with the Saudi oil and gas field equipment supplier TAQA. The Reuters news agency quotes Argent CEO Jonathan Bass as saying he is delighted "to realize the visions of US President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and to lead the country from darkness into the light."
In Azerbaijan, it was Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who brokered a deal with Exxon to exploit unconventional oil reserves in the country. Trump himself, meanwhile, had previously brokered a preliminary peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in August. This includes an ambitious plan for a trade route—dubbed the "Trump Route"—running from Azerbaijan through Armenia, along the Iranian border, and into Turkey.
His Vice President, J.D. Vance, has now reaped the geoeconomic harvest. During a visit last week, he signed a nuclear agreement reportedly worth nine billion dollars. Going forward, electricity is to be generated using new American nuclear reactors rather than the old Russian ones. Vance describes this as a "classic win-win situation." In Moscow—within whose sphere of influence both nations had long resided—the newspaper *Kommersant* commented as follows: "Baku and Yerevan have chosen the American path." [1]
If this movement would work against Iran and China, then American companies could control significant amount of world’s reserve stable fossil energy needed for AI revolution. That would allow to keep down both Western Europe with high prices and to keep down China without cheap Iran’s energy. So far this didn’t pan out. Western Europe has it’s sky-high fossil energy prices all right, Iran and China are coming out on a more complicated way. Paradoxically, revolution of drone and missile swarms in Iran reduces the chances of the West to dominate revolution of AI.
The geopolitical landscape as of May 2026 confirms that the intersection of the Iran conflict, AI development, and energy security is creating paradoxical outcomes. The strategy to use energy control to leverage power over opponents is struggling against new, low-cost technologies.
Here is an analysis of the situation based on 2026 developments:
• Iran’s Asymmetric Drone Strategy: Iran has successfully utilized inexpensive drones and missile swarms, such as the Shahed-136, to disrupt U.S. and allied operations, exposing weaknesses in high-cost defense systems. This has created a "cost-per-kill" trap where expensive Western missiles are used to intercept cheap drones, putting significant strain on resources.
• Impact on U.S. AI Dominance: While U.S. forces are heavily leveraging AI for targeting in Iran, the ongoing, low-cost drone war acts as a drain on resources and forces, hindering the ability to focus entirely on accelerating AI development for dominance over China.
• Western Europe Energy Crunch: Europe is experiencing high fossil energy prices, with import bills rising by over €22 billion ($25.7 billion) following the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. This has placed massive economic strain on the EU, validating concerns about energy reliance.
• China’s Positioning: Despite being a major purchaser of Iranian oil, China is leveraging the disruption to accelerate its shift toward clean technologies, an industry it already leads. The crisis strengthens China’s push to make its industry more energy-independent and sustainable through renewables and batteries.
The situation shows that while the U.S. maintains significant fossil energy capacity, the low-cost, decentralized nature of Iran’s drone and missile warfare makes it difficult for American companies to definitively control the "stable fossil energy" needed for an unimpeded AI revolution, as traditional energy infrastructure is vulnerable to disruption.
1. Moskau wird energiepolitisch eingedämmt: Trump krempelt den Energiemarkt um. Sanktionen gegen Russland sind nur ein Mittel, um mehr Einfluss Geschäft in Europa und Vorderasien zu erlangen. US-Konzerne profitieren durch neue Verträge. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Frankfurt. 16 Feb 2026: 20.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą