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2023 m. spalio 4 d., trečiadienis

Global Shippers Again Embrace The 'Free Fuel'


"More ships are running on wind power, as the global industry tries to fight climate change. One concept has backing from Abba, the Swedish pop stars.

One ship was pulled across the sea with the help of an enormous sail that looked as if it belonged to a kite-surfing giant. Another navigated the oceans between China and Brazil this summer with steel and composite-glass sails as high as three telephone poles.

Both harness a natural propellant that oceangoing vessels have depended on for centuries: the wind. And they're part of a growing effort to move the shipping industry away from fossil fuels.

"We want to decarbonize -- why not use what's available?" said Jan Dieleman, president of Cargill Ocean Transportation, which charters about 700 ships. 

"Wind is free fuel."

The worldwide shipping industry is responsible for about 3 percent of the greenhouse gases that are dangerously heating the planet. That translates into about one billion metric tons of carbon dioxide and other gases annually, a figure that is rising as global trade increases.

Some 11 billion tons of cargo are shipped by sea each year, accounting for as much as 90 percent of the world's traded goods. Nearly all of it is enabled by burning heavy fuel oil, but that is beginning to change.

Cargill chartered the Pyxis Ocean, a vessel that began its first wind-assisted voyage in August. It sailed from China to Brazil with two wings that turned to capture the wind and folded down when not in use. While each weighs 125 tons, Mr. Dieleman said it is a small proportion of the vessel's carrying potential of 82,000 tons. Each sail can cut fuel usage by 1.5 tons per day, or 4.65 fewer tons of carbon dioxide emissions, and decrease fuel usage by 30 percent. The ship docked in Brazil last week.

The French company Airseas developed a different design, the outsize kite. It is housed in a storage tank on a ship's bow and deployed by cable and crane to slice nearly 1,000 feet into the sky, where winds blow strong. A prototype has been at sea for a year and a half, said Vincent Bernatets, the chief executive and co-founder of Airseas. The design could slash fuel consumption by up to 40 percent on some routes, he said, adding that a major Japanese ship company has ordered five sails.

Wind-powered ships still need a backup fuel to navigate harbors or to function when the air is still. But the idea is to significantly reduce the reliance on fossil fuels.

"Every ton of carbon you save is actually a third of a ton of fuel that you save," Mr. Dieleman said. "We need to get the emissions profile down today."

Of a worldwide fleet of about 60,000 cargo ships, roughly 30 are wind-assisted, said Gavin Allwright, the secretary general of the International Windship Association, a trade group. But as many as 10,700 merchant ships are projected to use wind propulsion by 2030, he said.

"We think this will go much quicker," Mr. Allwright said. "Is the industry going to adopt this? The answer is yes, increasingly so."

Nearly all nations have agreed to stop adding emissions from shipping to the atmosphere by 2050, a target that depends greatly on zero-carbon fuels, such as ammonia that is produced with wind or solar energy. But those fuels would be expensive, and toxic leaks are a concern.

"It's a bit of a battle of visions," said John Maggs, the shipping policy director at Seas at Risk, a coalition of environmental groups that is based in Brussels. "Shipping is a very conservative industry, and of course the companies selling fossil fuels will be selling those alternative fuels."

Research has found that shipping emissions could be cut by up to 47 percent by 2030 through a combination of wind propulsion, new fuels and reduced speeds. Slowing down could also cut underwater noise and risks to whales. An estimated 20,000 whales are killed each year by ships, according to Friend of the Sea, which certifies fisheries and aquaculture for sustainability.

Dozens of other wind-ships are in development, many in European countries like Britain, France, Norway and the Netherlands. Almost all are highly automated and equipped with sensors, with designs that include sails, rotors and parts that resemble vertical airplane wings.

Their builders would not discuss the costs, but estimates for adding wind propulsion range from several hundred thousand dollars to more than a million dollars. The payback period could be three to five years for retrofits and longer for new builds, Mr. Allwright said.

The Swedish company Wallenius Marine is developing wind-powered ships with the aim of lowering vessels' carbon emissions by as much as 90 percent.

 The company has sponsored Abba Voyage, a virtual concert performance featuring the Swedish pop band that has been running in London since last year. Richard Jeppsson, the senior vice president for wind-powered projects with Wallenius Lines, said the company advised on the show's sustainability, ensuring that water was recirculated and that renewable building materials were used.

Wallenius has also secured the rights to name its wind-powered vessels after Abba songs. Although the band's song "Eagle" accompanies a promotional video, Mr. Jeppsson said an Abba song has yet to be chosen for one of the ships.

"Some are better than others," Mr. Jeppsson said. "Maybe not S.O.S."" [1]

1. Global Shippers Again Embrace The 'Free Fuel': [Foreign Desk]. Buckley, Cara.  New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 04 Oct 2023: A.1.

JAV įmonės laikosi darbuotojų --- Nepaisant ekonominių kliūčių, atleidžiama mažai

„Visi žino, kad JAV ekonomika ketvirtąjį ketvirtį susidurs su dideliais priešpriešiniais vėjais. Tai apima ir darbdavius, nors jie vis dar nerodo polinkio uždaryti liukus.

 

     Antradienį Darbo departamentas pranešė, kad rugpjūčio pabaigoje pagal sezoną buvo laisvų 9,6 mln. darbo vietų, palyginti su 8,9 mln. liepos mėn. Atsižvelgus į tai, laisvų darbo vietų skaičius vienam asmeniui, skaičiuojamam kaip bedarbis, išliko apie 1,5. Tai palyginti su maždaug 1,2 vidurkiu 2019 m. priešpandeminiais metais.

 

     Kiti ataskaitos aspektai priminė darbo rinką, kuri, nors ir vėsta, vis dar gana stipri. Darbuotojų, įsirtaisančių į darbą, skaičius ir toliau viršijo išvykstančiųjų skaičių. Darbą paliekančių žmonių skaičius vis dar yra istoriškai didelis, o tai rodo, kad darbuotojai ir toliau ieško naujų ir geresnių įsidarbinimo galimybių. Atleidimų skaičius yra didesnis, nei prieš metus, bet vis dar mažesnis, nei prieš pandemiją.

 

     Visa tai sutampa su kitais naujausiais rodikliais. Pavyzdžiui, savaitės bedarbių pašalpų skaičius išlieka gana žemas, o JAV laisvų darbo vietų indeksas iš darbo vietų sąrašų svetainės „Indeed“ išlieka aukštas. Atvėsus infliacijai Federalinis rezervų bankas gali būti mažiau linkęs vėl kelti palūkanų normas, tačiau stipri darbo rinka nesuteiks priežasčių mažinti palūkanų normas. Ir visa tai vyksta, nors darbdaviams buvo suteikta daug priežasčių nerimauti. Tikėtina, kad besitęsiantys streikai, ypač Detroito automobilių gamintojams, turės įtakos augimui. Atnaujinus studentų skolų mokėjimą, sumažės vartotojų perkamoji galia, kaip ir didelės benzino kainos. Vyriausybės uždarymas išlieka rizika. Didelės palūkanų normos yra našta.

 

     Taigi, jei darbdaviai ieško dingsčių pristabdyti samdymą arba sumažinti savo darbo jėgą, jų yra daug. Tačiau jie to nedaro. Tai, tikriausiai, atspindi aplinką, kurioje daugeliui įmonių vis dar trūksta darbuotojų. Tačiau tai taip pat atspindi aplinką, kurioje nuosmukio rizika atrodo labiau nutolusi, nei prieš kelis mėnesius, o darbdaviai nerimauja, kad dabar atleidžiamus darbuotojus vėliau bus sunku pakeisti.

 

     Praėjusią savaitę Duke'o universitetas kartu su Atlantos ir Ričmondo federalinių atsargų bankais pranešė, kad rugpjūčio pabaigoje–rugsėjo pradžioje apklaustų vyriausiųjų finansų pareigūnų tikimybė, kad bendrasis vidaus produktas per ateinančius 12 mėnesių sumažės, yra 18,9 %, palyginti su 24,5 %. antrąjį ketvirtį ir siekia žemiausią lygį nuo 2022 m. pirmojo ketvirčio. Finansų vadovai taip pat tikėjosi, kad kitais metais jų įmonėse užimtumas vidutiniškai padidės 3,9 proc., o šiemet – 1,1 proc. Tikėtis, kad kitais metais turėsite pridėti darbuotojų, yra rimta priežastis dabar neatleisti.

 

     Investuotojai turi būti dėmesingi kliūtims, su kuriomis ekonomika susiduria šį ketvirtį, tačiau taip pat turėtų pagalvoti, kas atsitiktų, jei ekonomikai pavyktų visas jas pašalinti be didelių kliūčių. Tokia stipri darbo rinka kitais metais gali išlikti stipri." [1]

 

1. Companies Hang On To Workers --- Layoffs are low despite economic hurdles. Lahart, Justin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Oct 2023: B.12.

Companies Hang On To Workers --- Layoffs are low despite economic hurdles.


"Everybody knows the U.S. economy faces significant headwinds in the fourth quarter. That includes employers, though they are still showing little inclination to batten down the hatches.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that there were a seasonally adjusted 9.6 million job openings at the end of August, up from July's 8.9 million. With that, the number of job openings per person counted as unemployed remained around 1.5. That compares with an average of about 1.2 in the prepandemic year of 2019.

Other aspects of the report smacked of a job market that, while cooling, is still quite strong. The number of hires continued to outpace the number of people leaving. The number of people quitting their jobs is still historically high, suggesting that workers continue to find new, and better, employment opportunities. Layoffs are higher than a year ago, but still below levels before the pandemic.

All of which jibes with other recent indicators. Weekly jobless claims, for example, remain quite low, while an index of U.S. job openings from job-listing site Indeed remains high. Cooling inflation might make the Federal Reserve less inclined to raise rates again, but a strong job market won't provide reason to cut. And this is all occurring even though employers have been given plenty of cause to worry. Continuing strikes, particularly at Detroit automakers, are likely to hit growth. The resumption of student-debt payments will be cutting into consumers' buying power, as will high gasoline prices. A government shutdown remains a risk. High interest rates are a burden.

So, if employers were looking for excuses to pause hiring, or to trim their workforce, there are plenty on hand. Yet they aren't doing either. This is probably a reflection of an environment where many businesses are still short-staffed. But it also reflects an environment where the risk of a recession appears more remote than it did even a few months ago, and where employers worry that employees they lay off now will be hard to replace later.

Last week, Duke University, with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Richmond, reported that chief financial officers surveyed in late August through early September put the chances of gross domestic product contracting over the next 12 months at 18.9%, down from 24.5% in the second quarter, and the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022. The CFOs also expected, on average, that employment at their companies would grow by 3.9% next year, compared with 1.1% this year. Expecting that you will need to add employees next year is a strong reason not to fire any now.

Investors need to be attentive to hurdles that the economy is facing this quarter, but they should also think about what would happen if the economy manages to clear all of them without stumbling badly. A job market that is this strong could stay strong next year." [1]

1. Companies Hang On To Workers --- Layoffs are low despite economic hurdles. Lahart, Justin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Oct 2023: B.12.

Ar JAV namai kainuoja pernelyg brangiai? --- Kai kainos, mokamos už vidutinį vienos šeimos turtą, didėja, stambūs investuotojai traukiasi

  „Pandemijos eros „Wall Street“ grynųjų pinigų srautas į šeimos namus išsenka. Paprasti būsto pirkėjai gali džiaugtis mažesne konkurencija, bet ne ženklais, kad jie permoka.

 

     JAV vienos šeimos nekilnojamasis turtas yra vienintelis nekilnojamojo turto tipas, kurio vertė padidėjo nuo tada, kai 2022 m. kovo mėn. pradėjo kilti palūkanų normos. Po trumpo kritimo per kelis mėnesius po pradinio Federalinio rezervo šuolio būsto kainos vėl pradėjo kilti. Remiantis naujausiais S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller namų kainų indekso skaičiais, gyvenamojo turto vertė liepos mėnesį pasiekė rekordą.

 

     Pandemijos metu investuotojai išleido milijardus, pirkdami JAV vienos šeimos namus, suvilioti didžiuliu nuomos kainų padidėjimu, nes nuotoliniai darbuotojai ieškojo daugiau vietos. Jie atsitraukė, nes išaugo skolos kaštai, o nuomos augimas sulėtėjo, todėl buvo sunkiau gauti tinkamą investicijų grąžą. Remiantis „John Burns Research & Consulting“ duomenimis, stambūs savininkai per antrąjį ketvirtį JAV įsigijo 0,4 % namų, o 2021 m. pabaigoje – 2,4 %.

 

     Į biržos sąrašus įtrauktos investicijų į nekilnojamąjį turtą fondus, kurių specializacija yra vienos šeimos namai, pvz., AMH Homes ir Invitation Homes, sulėtėjo pirkimas arba jie tapo tiesioginiais pardavėjais.

 

     Didelių įmonių savininkams, norintiems išplėsti savo portfelius, geresnis pasirinkimas, nei mokėti aukštas šiandienines kainas atviroje rinkoje gali būti statyti naujus namus nuo nulio.

 

     Akcijų rinka mirksi dar vienu įspėjamuoju ženklu dėl būsto kainų. Pasak Green Street tyrimų direktoriaus Cedriko Lachance'o, JAV vienos šeimos būstų REIT akcijos parduodamos su 20% nuolaida, palyginti su jų bendrojo turto verte.

 

     Tačiau investuotojai gali pernelyg nuvertinti būsto rinką. JAV trūksta vienos šeimos namų, palyginti su galimu butų pertekliumi, jei bus pastatyti visi šiuo metu rengiami projektai. Vienos šeimos namų nuomos augimas yra didesnis, nei butų.

 

     Kita priežastis, kodėl butų vertės pasitaisė, o vienos šeimos namų kainos – ne, gali būti tiesiog tai, kam jie priklauso. Įmonių savininkams priklauso 68 % butų pastatuose, kuriuose yra 100 ar daugiau vienetų, bet tik apie 3 % Amerikos individualių šeimos namų. Stambūs instituciniai investuotojai „paprastai orientuojasi į grynųjų pinigų grąžą, taip pat į ekonominių ir finansavimo sąlygų pokyčius“, – sako „Cohen & Steers“ analitikas Jordanas Flannery. Nuolatiniams namo pirkėjams šie veiksniai yra tik dalis apsisprendimo pirkti.

 

     Savininkai dažnai yra izoliuoti nuo griežtesnių finansinių sąlygų, nes ilgus metus laikosi pigios skolos. Pasak UBS, 61 % visų negrąžintų JAV hipotekų palūkanų norma yra mažesnė, nei 4 %. Tai smaugia pasiūlą, nes savininkai, norintys parduoti, tikriausiai, stengsis išlaikyti mažas hipotekos išlaidas.

 

     Namų pirkėjų biudžetai ištempti: remiantis UBS analize, mėnesinės naujos hipotekos išlaidos dabar sudaro 42% JAV vidutinių namų ūkio pajamų – 10 procentinių punktų didesnės, nei 2008 m. būsto katastrofos išvakarėse. Kai pirkėjų ar pardavėjų nedaug, rinka gali tiesiog užšalti.

 

     Tai negali būti geras ženklas namų medžiotojams, kad Volstrytas nebepasirodo per peržiūras. Vis dėlto, būsto pirkimas gyvenimui yra daugiau, nei grynai finansinė investicija. Dėl to vienos šeimos sektorius skiriasi nuo kito turto – žinoma, pervertintas, bet, galbūt, mažiau pažeidžiamas nuosmukio." [1]

 

1. Are U.S. Homes Overvalued? --- As prices paid for the average single-family property soar, big investors retreat. Ryan, Carol.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Oct 2023: B.12.

Are U.S. Homes Overvalued? --- As prices paid for the average single-family property soar, big investors retreat.


"The pandemic-era flood of Wall Street cash into family houses is drying up. Regular home buyers might welcome a bit less competition, but not the signs that they are overpaying.

U.S. single-family properties are the only type of real estate that has increased in value since interest rates began to rise in March 2022. After a brief dip in the months after the Federal Reserve's initial hikes, house prices resumed their climb. Residential property values reached a record in July, based on the latest numbers from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Investors spent billions buying U.S. single-family homes during the pandemic, lured by blistering rent increases as remote workers looked for more space. They have backed off as debt costs have risen and rent growth has moderated, making it harder to generate a decent investment return. According to data from John Burns Research & Consulting, large landlords bought 0.4% of U.S. homes in the second quarter, down from a peak of 2.4% at the end of 2021.

Listed real-estate investment trusts that specialize in single-family homes, such as AMH Homes and Invitation Homes, have either slowed their buying or become net sellers.

For big corporate landlords that want to grow their portfolios, a better option than paying today's high prices on the open market may be to build new homes from scratch.

The stock market is flashing another warning sign for house prices. Shares of U.S. single-family housing REITs trade at a 20% discount to their gross asset value, according to Green Street's director of research, Cedrik Lachance.

Investors may be underestimating the housing market, though. There is a shortage of single-family homes in the U.S., versus a potential glut of apartments if all the projects currently in the pipeline get built. Rent growth is stronger for single-family homes than apartments.

Another reason why apartment values have corrected and single-family home prices haven't may simply be who owns them. Corporate landlords own 68% of apartments in buildings with 100 or more units but only around 3% of America's individual family homes. Big institutional investors "are typically focused on cash returns as well as changes in economic and financing conditions," says Cohen & Steers analyst Jordan Flannery. For regular home buyers, these factors are only part of the buying decision.

Owner-occupiers are often insulated from tighter financial conditions because they have locked in cheap debt for years. Of all outstanding U.S. mortgages, 61% have a rate below 4%, according to UBS. This is strangling supply as owners who would like to sell up will probably sit tight to keep their mortgage costs low.

Home buyers' budgets are stretched: The monthly cost of a new mortgage is now 42% of U.S. median household income -- 10 percentage points higher than on the eve of the 2008 housing crash, based on UBS's analysis. With few buyers or sellers, the market might simply freeze.

It can't be a good sign for house hunters that Wall Street is no longer showing up at viewings. Still, buying a home to live in is more than a purely financial investment. This makes the single-family sector different from other property -- overvalued, certainly, but perhaps less vulnerable to a crash." [1]

1. Are U.S. Homes Overvalued? --- As prices paid for the average single-family property soar, big investors retreat. Ryan, Carol.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Oct 2023: B.12.