The Eurasian landmass is dominated by three major powers: China, India and Russia. How low did the West go...

 

"Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's high-profile visit to Moscow last week set off a firestorm of criticism in the West.

That Mr. Modi's first visit to Russia since 2019 drew rebukes should surprise no one. By choosing Russia rather than a neighboring country for his first bilateral official visit in his third term as prime minister, Mr. Modi elevated the trip's significance. Thanks to partially overlapping dates with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's summit in Washington, Mr. Modi's Moscow sojourn appeared designed to undermine the Biden administration's efforts to isolate Russia.

To make matters worse, images of Mr. Modi hugging Vladimir Putin, riding in a golf cart around the Russian strongman's private residence, and accepting Russia's highest civilian award -- the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle disappointed the West

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted that the Modi-Putin hug was "a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts." Former Trump national security adviser H.R. McMaster tweeted that it's "time to reassess the relationship with India based on much lower expectations."

In a rare note of public caution, U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti said that the U.S.-India relationship was "not yet deep enough" to be taken for granted. The British TV personality Piers Morgan was blunter. "Shame on you," he tweeted, while sharing a video of Mr. Modi accepting the award from Mr. Putin.

Why would India risk upsetting its Western partners to please Moscow? The reasons are complex.

As Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has pointed out, India views the Eurasian landmass as dominated by three major powers: China, India and Russia.

"India's longstanding rivalry with China -- including border tensions that have lasted more than four years -- drives its efforts to prevent Moscow from drawing closer to Beijing.

India's dependence on Russian arms looms large in the relationship. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that only 36% of Indian arms imports between 2019 and 2023 were from Russia, down from 76% between 2009 and 2013. But India's large inventory of Soviet and Russian weapons means it's still dependent on Moscow for spare parts and ammunition. 

India has saved about $13 billion by buying steeply discounted Russian oil since 2022, according to ICRA, a rating agency. India also sourced about a quarter of its imported fertilizer from Russia last year.

Domestically, India hasn't fully shed its old Cold War habit of measuring its independence by its ability to thumb its nose at America. Even today, some of India's foreign-policy commentators view Russia in a sentimental light, as the friend that helped India stare down an unfriendly U.S. in the 1971 India-Pakistan war, the conflict that led to the birth of Bangladesh. Dealing with Russia can also seem simpler than dealing with the U.S. Mr. Putin raises no pesky questions about democratic backsliding or "human rights", and the Russian media tamely takes its cues from the Kremlin.

Russophile Indian pundits hold an almost mystical view of Russia as an eternal great power. 

Indian foreign-policy scholar Zorawar Daulet Singh says Russia is "too proud, too independent and too militarily powerful to ever submit to China." 

Mr. Jaishankar, the foreign minister, calls India's "special and privileged strategic partnership" with Russia the "one constant in world politics."" [1]

The West has to quickly put its house in order. American Trump started already. What about the EU?

1. East is East: India and Russia: Less Than Meets the Eye. Dhume, Sadanand.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 July 2024: A.13.

 

Europa ruošiasi saugumo ir ekonomikos pokyčiams --- Lyderiai susitinka aptarti regioninių iššūkių, galimą D. Trumpo antrąją kadenciją

„JAV prezidento rinkimai su Donaldo Trumpo sugrįžimo į Baltuosius rūmus perspektyva žada turėti didelių pasekmių Europos saugumui, būsimiems transatlantiniams santykiams ir konfliktui Ukrainoje – pokyčiai, su kuriais Europos lyderiai pradeda grumtis. .

 

 Trumpo pasirinktas senatorius JD Vance (R., Ohajo valstija) pirmadienį sustiprino Europoje jausmą, kad buvusio prezidento grįžimas į pareigas gali reikšti dramatišką JAV pagalbos Ukrainai sumažėjimą ir postūmį priversti Kijevą pradėti taikos derybas su Maskva. Tai taip pat gali reikšti, kad JAV gynybos prioritetai bus nukreipti į Aziją, kad atgrasytų Kiniją, kuri palieka Europą vis labiau apsiginti pačiai.

 

 Ketvirtadienį vyksiančiame susitikime Europos lyderiai iš viso žemyno susidurs su iššūkiais, su kuriais susiduria regionas, jei JAV pasitrauks, įskaitant tai, ar Europa gali sutelkti vienybę ir karinius raumenis, kad patikrintų Rusiją ir išlaikytų Ukrainą.

 

 Naujasis JK ministras pirmininkas Keiras Starmeris priims 45 lyderius iš Europos Sąjungos ir gretimų šalių, tokių, kaip Turkija ir Ukraina. Idėja buvo suteikti regionui už 27 ES narių ribų pasikalbėti saugumo klausimais ir grėsmėmis nepriklausomai nuo sąjungininkų, tokių, kaip JAV, ir galimų priešų, tokių, kaip Rusija ir Kinija.

 

 Oficialiai viršūnių susitikime daugiausia dėmesio bus skiriama tokiems klausimams, kaip migracijos sprendimas ir pastangos sukurti demokratinį atsparumą hibridinėms atakoms, įskaitant dezinformacijos kampanijas, taip pat Ukrainos konfliktui. Didžiosios Britanijos ir ES pareigūnai taip pat vertina šį susirinkimą kaip galimybę naujajai Didžiosios Britanijos vyriausybei atkurti santykius su ES, kurią Britanija paliko 2020 m.

 

 Vis dėlto lyderiai nusiteikę diskutuoti apie Trumpo sugrįžimo galimybę ir sukeltus saugumo iššūkius, sako pareigūnai.

 

 D. Trumpas, kaip ir ankstesni prezidentai, kritikavo Europą už tai, kad ji nedidina savo karinių išlaidų ir pasikliauja JAV galia, kaip Šiaurės Atlanto sutarties organizacijos dalimi, kuri reikalauja, kad JAV ir kitos narės gintų bet kurią NATO valstybę nuo puolimo. Nuo 2014 m., kai Rusija susijungė su Krymu, dauguma Europos šalių pradėjo pamažu didinti karines išlaidas, tačiau vis dar daugiausia pasikliauja JAV apsauga.

 

 Trumpas suabejojo ​​NATO reikalingumu ir pareiškė, kad negins organizacijos šalių, kurios nesilaikys minimalių karinių išlaidų gairių – 2% savo metinės ekonominės produkcijos. Jis taip pat pažadėjo nutraukti konfliktą.

 

 Susirūpinimas viršija saugumą. Trumpas antradienį paskelbtame interviu „Bloomberg News“ pakartojo grasinimus pritaikyti ES naujus prekybos tarifus, sakydamas, kad Europos šalys „su mumis elgiasi žiauriai“.

 

 Europoje atsirado du priešingi atsakymai D. Trumpui, abu siekiant užtikrinti tam tikrą veiksmų nepriklausomumą.

 

 Vienoje pusėje stovi Vengrijos ministras pirmininkas Viktoras Orbanas. Orbano pozicija, išdėstyta neseniai laiške aukštam ES pareigūnui, yra ta, kad blokas turėtų nukreipti Ukrainos strategiją nuo konflikto ir dirbti su Trumpu, kad užbaigtų konfliktą. Dėl tokio požiūrio ES atsidurtų diplomatinių pastangų pertvarkyti saugumo tvarką Europoje centre ir išvengtų brangių pastangų remti vienai Ukrainą, jei JAV atsitrauktų, teigė jis.

 

 „Neturėjome suverenios ar nepriklausomos Europos strategijos“, – rašė Orbanas Europos Vadovų Tarybos pirmininkui Charlesui Micheliui.

 

 Tačiau daugumai Europos lyderių Orbano požiūris išparduotų Ukrainą.

 

 Ukrainos šalininkai mano, kad geriausias Europos pasirinkimas yra stiprinti pastangas didinti karines išlaidas ir Europos gynybos pramonę. Tai susilpnintų D. Trumpo argumentą, kad Europa negaili JAV mokesčių mokėtojų. Tai taip pat leistų Europai toliau padėti Kijevui ir stiprinti žemyno atgrasymą Rusijai.

 

 Birželį NATO pranešė, kad 23 iš 32 aljanso narių pasiekia 2 proc. Pernai prisijungė tik 10 narių. NATO neseniai pranešė, kad ne JAV NATO narių karinės išlaidos 2015 m. sieks 430 milijardų dolerių, palyginti su 250 milijardų dolerių 2014 m.

 

 Priešingai, JAV gynybai išleidžia 3,4% BVP – du trečdalius visų NATO išlaidų." [1]

 

Pagrindiniai regioniniai iššūkiai ES yra kitur. Įvesdama sankcijas pigiai rusiškajai energijai, ES padidino visko kainas. Kovojant su šiuo kainų šuoliu, kreditai ES pabrango. Šis konkurencingumo praradimas pradėjo naikinti pramonę, mūsų ekonomikos stuburą. Bandymai sukelti III pasaulinį karą, kurio niekas negali laimėti, šiuo metu būtų labai kvaila ES politika. Orbanas teisus.

 

1. World News: Europe Braces for Security Shift --- Leaders meet to discuss regional challenges, possible Trump second term. Norman, Laurence.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 July 2024: A.7.

Europe Braces for Security and Economy Shift --- Leaders meet to discuss regional challenges, possible Trump second term

 

"The U.S. presidential election, with the prospect of a return of Donald Trump to the White House, promises to have profound repercussions for Europe's security, future trans-Atlantic relations and the conflict in Ukraine -- changes that European leaders are starting to grapple with.

Trump's pick of Sen. JD Vance (R., Ohio) as his running mate on Monday reinforced a sense in Europe that the former president's return to office could mean a dramatic drop in U.S. aid for Ukraine and a push to force Kyiv into peace talks with Moscow. It also could mean a U.S. pivot in defense priorities toward Asia to deter China that leaves Europe to increasingly fend for itself.

At a meeting on Thursday, European leaders from across the Continent will confront the challenges facing the region if the U.S. pulls away, including whether Europe can muster the unity and military muscle to check Russia and keep Ukraine afloat.

The U.K.'s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, will host 45 leaders from the European Union and nearby countries such as Turkey and Ukraine -- the fourth such meeting of the so-called European Political Community, an initiative driven by French President Emmanuel Macron following events in Ukraine in 2022. The idea was to give the region beyond the 27-member EU a chance to talk over security issues and threats independent of allies like the U.S. and potential foes like Russia and China.

Officially, the summit will focus on the issues such as tackling migration and efforts to build democratic resilience against hybrid attacks including disinformation campaigns, as well as the Ukraine conflict. British and EU officials also view the gathering as a chance for Britain's new government to reset relations with the EU, which Britain left in 2020.

Yet leaders are set to discuss on the sidelines the possibility of Trump's return and the security challenges that will pose, officials say.

Trump, like previous presidents, has criticized Europe for not pulling its weight in military spending and relying on U.S. power as part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which requires that the U.S. and other members defend any NATO state from attack. Since Russia's reunification with Crimea in 2014, most European nations have started to slowly increase military spending but still largely rely on U.S. protection.

Trump has questioned the need for NATO and said he wouldn't defend countries in the organization that didn't meet the minimum military spending guidelines of 2% of their own annual economic output. He also promised to end the conflict.

The concerns go beyond security. Trump, in an interview with Bloomberg News published on Tuesday, repeated threats to hit the EU with new trade tariffs, saying European countries "treat us violently."

Two contrasting responses to Trump have emerged in Europe, both seeking to ensure some independence of action.

On one side stands Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Orban's pitch, laid out in a recent letter to a top EU official, is that the bloc should shift its Ukraine strategy away from conflict and work with Trump to end the conflict. That approach would place the EU at the heart of diplomatic efforts to reshape the security order in Europe and avoid costly efforts to support Ukraine alone if the U.S. pulls back, he argued.

"We have not had a sovereign or independent European strategy," Orban wrote to European Council President Charles Michel.

For most European leaders, however, Orban's approach would sell out Ukraine.

Supporters of Ukraine believe Europe's best option is to intensify efforts to expand military spending and Europe's defense industry. That would weaken Trump's argument that Europe was free-riding on U.S. taxpayers. It would also allow Europe to continue helping Kyiv and build the Continent's deterrence to Russia.

In June, NATO said 23 of the alliance's 32 members are meeting the 2% target. Last year, only 10 members did. Military spending by non-U.S. NATO members will reach $430 billion this year in 2015 prices, up from $250 billion in 2014, NATO said recently. 

By contrast, the U.S. spends 3.4% of GDP on defense -- two-thirds of the NATO total." [1]

Main regional challenges in EU are elsewhere. By introducing sanctions against cheap Russian energy, the EU spiked prices of everything. Fighting this jump in prices, credit became expensive in the EU. This loss of competitiveness  started killing industry, the backbone of our economy. Attempts to spark a nuclear WWIII that nobody can win would be extremely foolish for the EU right now. Orban is right.

1. World News: Europe Braces for Security Shift --- Leaders meet to discuss regional challenges, possible Trump second term. Norman, Laurence.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 July 2024: A.7.