Do you need the best supercomputer in the world? We know one. It is a secret though. How did it happen?

"For decades, American and Chinese scientists collaborated on supercomputers, tennis-court-size machines essential to improving artificial intelligence, developing vaccines and predicting hurricanes.

But Chinese scientists have become more secretive as the U.S. has tried to hinder China's technological progress, and they have stopped participating altogether in a prominent international supercomputing forum.

The withdrawal marked the end of an era and created a divide that Western scientists say will slow the development of AI and other technologies as nations pursue separate projects.

The new secrecy also makes it harder for the U.S. government to answer a question it deems key to national security: Does the U.S. or China have faster supercomputers? Some academics have taken it upon themselves to hunt for clues about China's supercomputing progress, scrutinizing research papers and cornering Chinese peers at conferences.

Supercomputers have become central to the U.S.-China technological Cold War because the country with the faster supercomputers can also hold an advantage in developing nuclear weapons and other military technology.

"If the other guy can use a supercomputer to simulate and develop a fighter jet or weapon 20% or even 1% better than yours in terms of range, speed and accuracy, it's going to target you first, and then it's checkmate," said Jimmy Goodrich, a senior adviser for technology analysis to Rand Corp., a think tank.

The forum that China recently stopped participating in is called the Top500, which ranks the world's 500 fastest supercomputers. The latest ranking, released in June, says the world's three fastest computers are in the U.S., but the reality is probably different.

"The Chinese have machines that are faster," said Top500 co-founder Jack Dongarra. "They just haven't submitted the results."

Today's fastest supercomputers are powered by tens of thousands of cutting-edge computer chips. A 2015 U.S. move curtailed Chinese supercomputer developers' access to Intel chips and other U.S. hardware, followed by broader export restrictions four years later under the Trump administration. The Biden administration has tightened them further.

Dongarra and analysts who study China said they believed Beijing was worried the U.S. might do even more if China bragged about its supercomputing abilities.

They said it would be difficult for China to maintain its lead in supercomputing without leading-edge chips, many of them made by Silicon Valley leader Nvidia. Without those chips, China would have to use a brute-force workaround by stringing together hundreds of thousands of older-generation chips that gobble power.

In the age of artificial intelligence, limited access to high-end chips would force China to pick and choose what its supercomputers focus on, Goodrich said.

Supercomputing dates back to the 1960s, when U.S. government agencies started to design machines for juggling huge amounts of data simultaneously to solve problems in a way that less powerful computers working separately couldn't match easily. The purposes were similar to today: simulating a nuclear-weapon detonation, modeling the climate and solving other big scientific problems.

The Top500 was born in 1993 when Dongarra, a University of Tennessee professor, and German colleagues distributed a math problem for supercomputers, and then ranked the machines by how long they took to solve it.

Participating in the list has always been voluntary. Dongarra estimates there are about 50 supercomputers, including those owned by intelligence agencies or private companies, that would make the Top500 if their owners submitted data.

For more than two decades, U.S. machines led the ranking, issued twice a year. But by November 2017, China had 202 machines on the list, compared with 143 for the U.S. "China dominated," crowed Beijing's state news agency at the time.

In 2019, the U.S. Commerce Department put five Chinese supercomputing organizations on a blacklist, saying they used supercomputers for military and nuclear purposes. The sanctions banned U.S. companies from selling components to those organizations without a license.

"It was a major turning point," said Dongarra. Participation in the list dwindled. When he asked Chinese colleagues why, they said they weren't allowed to submit information, Dongarra recalled.

Chinese government agencies have led supercomputer development, with relatively few commercially operated machines. These agencies have highlighted how the latest Chinese models use domestically made processors, now that those from U.S. companies are less accessible.

Chinese government and science officials didn't respond to requests for comment. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Commerce Department, which implements the supercomputing export controls, referred to previous statements by the agency that said the controls address national-security threats posed by China.

Officially, the fastest computer on the Top500 sits at the Energy Department-sponsored Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in Tennessee. Called Frontier, it is about the size of two tennis courts, cost $600 million to construct and has an electricity bill of about $20 million a year, said Dongarra, who also works at Oak Ridge. It uses tens of thousands of computer chips.

Dongarra doesn't think Frontier is actually the world's fastest supercomputer. Scientific papers suggest that certain Chinese machines are better. One has been referred to in state media as a prototype Tianhe-3, after a Chinese term for the Milky Way galaxy, while the other is a model in the Sunway series of supercomputers.

The Chinese papers describe the processors in the machines, what applications they run and the results they get, giving a good estimate of how fast the supercomputers are, Dongarra said.

A scientific paper submitted last year for the Gordon Bell Prize -- essentially the Oscars of supercomputing -- described the Sunway supercomputer as having 39 million cores, or parts of the chips that carry out processing. That is quadruple the number of cores Frontier has. Combined with other clues, that statistic indicates that the Sunway machine may be more powerful than Frontier.

China puts out its own "best of" list for high-performance computing, which it calls the HPC Top100. Dongarra said he believed it left out leading Chinese supercomputers.

The No. 1 machine on the latest Top100 and some others are described in only generic terms without a name or operating institution given. Last December, a month after the latest list was released, the National Supercomputing Center in Guangzhou introduced a machine called Tianhe Xingyi, saying it achieved a manifold increase in performance over an earlier model in the Milky Way series called Tianhe-2.

Besides reading the papers, Dongarra tries to confirm the specifications in a more old-fashioned way: by attending presentations by Chinese scientists at conferences.

"That's sort of my verification: When I talk to them, it's clear that they have such a machine," he said, referring to the computers he believes are actually the world's fastest." [1]

1. U.S. News: U.S.-China Rift Hits Supercomputer Ties --- Big machines are critical, so scientists hunt for clues about Chinese progress. Woo, Stu.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 July 2024: A.6.

Europos Sąjungos Žaliasis susitarimas taip pat yra apgaulė. Tai gera žinia amerikiečiams, dalyvaujantiems panašioje Amerikos prezidento Bideno apgaulėje

 „Bijodama dėl savo pakartotinio paskyrimo, Ursula von der Leyen, Europos Komisijos, ES vykdomosios institucijos, vadovė, švelniai mynė atgal nepopuliarią žaliąją politiką, artėjant Europos Parlamento rinkimams birželio 9 d. Ponia von der Leyen paskelbė 2019 m., kad ES Žaliasis susitarimas, sąjungos strategija iki 2050 m. pasiekti nulinį anglies dvideginio išmetimą, buvo ES „žmogaus mėnulio paviršiuje akimirka“.

 

 Tačiau vasarį ji blokavo įstatymo projektą, kuriuo siekiama sumažinti pesticidų naudojimą žemdirbystėje, ir sušvelnino kai kuriuos, su ES bendrosios žemės ūkio politikos subsidijomis susijusius, aplinkosaugos reikalavimus. 

 

Dar ryškesnis buvo jos sprendimas atidėti šilumos siurblių veiksmų plano, kuris buvo numatytas metų pradžioje, paskelbimą nenustatytam laikui po rinkimų.

 

 Daugelį ES politikos formuotojų išgąsdino tai, kad buvo atidėtas plano, laikomo esminiu žaliojo kurso sėkmės veiksniu, paskelbimas.

 

 ES statistikos agentūros Eurostato duomenimis, maždaug pusė visos ES suvartojamos energijos yra skirta šildymui ir vėsinimui, o daugiau, nei 70 % jos vis dar gaunama iš iškastinio kuro, daugiausia gamtinių dujų.

 

 Pastatai išmeta apie 35 % su energija susijusių šiltnamio efektą sukeliančių dujų (ŠESD). Maždaug keturi penktadaliai gyvenamųjų pastatų suvartojamos energijos sunaudojama jų šildymui ir karšto vandens tiekimui.

 

 ES vadovai su skirtingu entuziazmu palaiko šildymo dekarbonizavimą. Perėjimas nuo katilų prie šilumos siurblių, kurie veikia, kaip šaldytuvai atvirkščiai, gali būti brangus (šilumos siurblių kaina du ar tris kartus viršija dujinių katilų kainą) ir trikdantis (kai kuriuose pastatuose reikia daug ką nuodugniai renovuoti šilumos siurbliams) - štai kodėl jis nepopuliarus daugelio rinkėjų tarpe.

 

 Tačiau labai svarbu, kad jie būtų varomi elektra, o ne dujomis ar nafta, o elektra gali būti gaunama iš ekologiškų šaltinių. 

 

Be didelio postūmio siekti švaresnio šildymo, ES gali nepasiekti savo tikslo iki 2050 m. Gegužės viduryje 15 valstybių narių kreipėsi į komisiją raštu, apgailestavo, kad atidėtas šilumos siurblių plano paleidimas.

 

 Aiškios ir nuoseklios politikos nebuvimas suklaidino žmones ir pavertė gyvenamųjų namų šildymą keliose Europos šalyse, ypač Vokietijoje ir Italijoje, politine problema. Praėjusiais metais pasiūlytą Vokietijos įstatymą, kuris būtų uždraudęs naujus kuro ir dujų katilus ir subsidijuojamus šilumos siurblius, varomus mažai anglies dioksido į aplinką išskiriančia arba ekologiška elektra, bulvariniai leidiniai ir AfD, kraštutinių dešiniųjų opozicinė partija, pasmerkė kaip „Heizhammer“ (šildomąjį plaktuką). Vyriausybė nusileido. Sušvelninta įstatymo versija sako, kad nauji šildytuvai turi naudoti mažiausiai 65 % atsinaujinančios energijos.

 

 Italija sugriovė savo dosnių subsidijų, skirtų šilumos siurbliams skatinti, įgyvendinimą. 2020 m. Giuseppe Conte vyriausybė pradėjo populiarią Superbonus 110% iniciatyvą, pagal kurią namų savininkai gali gauti iki 110% mokesčių nuolaidą, susijusią su jų nuosavybės atnaujinimu, įrengiant šilumos siurblius ar saulės baterijas. Praėjusiais metais Giorgia Meloni, griežtai dešiniųjų pažiūrų ministrė pirmininkė, sumažino šią subsidiją iki minimumo dėl didėjančių išlaidų, kurias sukėlė plačiai paplitęs piktnaudžiavimas premija. Tai nuliūdino namų savininkus, investuotojus ir statybininkus. Šilumos siurblių pardavimas Italijoje smarkiai sumažėjo.

 

 „Yra daug klaidingos informacijos ir nerimo apie šilumos siurblius“, – pripažįsta Mario Kohle, Vokietijos žaliųjų technologijų įmonės „Enpal“, prekiaujančios saulės kolektoriais ir šilumos siurbliais, vadovas. Kai kurie mano, kad jie kainuoja 100 000 eurų (107 000 dolerių), o norint įrengti šilumos siurblį, reikia šildyti grindis.

 

 Tiesą sakant, teigia p. Kohle, šilumos siurblių kaina prasideda nuo 7800 eurų tiems, kurie atitinka reikalavimus vyriausybės subsidijai. Grindinis šildymas padidina šilumos siurblių efektyvumą, tačiau tai nėra būtina.

 

 Skandinavijos visuomenė paprastai yra gerai informuota apie ilgalaikius mažai anglies dioksido į aplinką išskiriančio šildymo pranašumus, tačiau likusioje Europoje bendrą požiūrį į šilumos siurblius iškraipo užsispyrę mitai, sako Martinas Lewerthas, Švedijos šilumos siurblių gamintojos Aira vadovas. Energetikos eksperto Jan Rosenow atliktas tyrimas atskleidė 18 tokios kritikos mitų. J. Lewerthas mano, kad keturi iš jų yra ypač žalingi jo pramonei: šilumos siurbliai neveikia esamuose pastatuose; jie neveikia, kai šalta; jie padidins šildymo sąskaitas; o jų technologija nauja ir neišbandyta.

 

 Vis dėlto, nepaisant visos kritikos ir prieštaravimų, susijusių su šilumos siurbliais, faktas išlieka faktas, kad jie tapo dominuojančia technologija šaltose Skandinavijos šalyse. Jų efektyvumas yra toks, kad jie gali sumažinti šildymo išlaidas net tokiose šalyse, kaip Didžioji Britanija, kur elektros kaina yra daug didesnė, nei dujų. Ir jie egzistuoja nuo tada, kai 1856 m. juos išrado austrų inžinierius Peteris Ritteris von Rittingenas.

 

Oi tie keisti siurbliai...

 

 Jei Europa nori pasiekti savo tikslą iki 2030 m. jos teritorijoje įrengti 60 mln. šilumos siurblių, palyginti su dabar tik 20 mln., tiek sąjunga, tiek jos narės turės nuveikti daug daugiau, reklamuojant technologiją, ypač dėl to, kad praėjusiais metais šilumos siurblių pardavimas 14 ES šalių sumažėjo vidutiniškai 5 % po dešimties metų staigaus augimo. Švedijos šilumos siurblių gamintoja NiBE vasario mėnesį turėjo atleisti 500 darbuotojų. Vokiečių gamintojas Vaillant atleido 700 darbo vietų, o Vokietijos konkurentas Stiebel Eltron turėjo atleisti šimtus darbuotojų.

 

 Politikos zigzagai, tokie kaip vyriausybės paramos šilumos siurbliams panaikinimas Italijoje ir Heizhammer žlugimas Vokietijoje, buvo bene svarbiausias veiksnys, lėmęs siurblių pardavimų sumažėjimą. Komisija turėtų kuo greičiau paskelbti savo planą, kad europiečiams suteiktų daugiau tikrumo; nors jau gali būti per vėlu. Kova su klimato kaita yra viena iš sričių, kurioje Europa vis dar gali pretenduoti į pasaulio lyderę. ES Žaliasis susitarimas vis dar gali tapti žemyno „Apollo“ programa." [1]

 

Tik svajok apie tai.

 

 1. The EU’s role as heat-pump pioneer. The Economist; London Vol. 452, Iss. 9404,  (Jul 6, 2024): 30.

The European Union's Green Deal is a sham too. That's is some good news for Americans, who are participating in American President Biden's similar sham

 

"Fearing for her reappointment, Ursula von der Leyen, boss of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, soft-pedalled over unpopular green policies in the run-up to the European Parliament elections on June 9th. Mrs von der Leyen had proclaimed in 2019 that the EU Green Deal, the union’s strategy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, was the EU’s “man-on-the-moon moment”.

But in February she blocked a draft law to slash the use of pesticides in farming, and loosened some of the environmental strings tied to the subsidies of the EU’s common agricultural policy. Still more striking was her decision to delay publication of a heat-pump action plan that had been scheduled for early in the year to an unspecified time after the elections.

The postponement in releasing a plan considered key to the success of the Green Deal has dismayed many EU policymakers. 

According to Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency, about half of all energy consumed in the EU is for heating and cooling, and more than 70% of that still comes from fossil fuels, mostly natural gas. 

Buildings account for about 35% of energy-related greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. And around four-fifths of energy consumption by residential buildings is used for heating them and supplying their hot water.

EU leaders support decarbonising heating—with varying degrees of enthusiasm. The switch from boilers to heat pumps, which work rather like refrigerators in reverse, can be expensive (the price of heat pumps is two or three times that of gas boilers) and disruptive (some buildings need extensive renovations to install heat pumps) which is why it is unpopular with many voters. 

But crucially they run on electricity rather than gas or oil—and the electricity can come from green sources. Without a big push for cleaner heating, the EU is liable to miss its goal of 2050. Fifteen member states wrote to the commission in mid-May to lament the postponement of the launch of the heat-pump plan.

The lack of clear and consistent policies has confused people and turned residential heating in several European countries into a political issue, particularly in Germany and Italy. Last year a proposed German law that would have banned new oil and gas boilers and subsidised heat pumps powered by low-carbon or green electricity was decried as the Heizhammer (the heating hammer) by tabloids and the AfD, a far-right opposition party. The government caved in. The law’s watered-down version says new heaters must run on at least 65% renewable energy.

Italy bungled the implementation of its generous subsidies to promote heat pumps. In 2020 Giuseppe Conte’s government launched the popular Superbonus 110% initiative that entitled homeowners to a tax credit of up to 110% on the cost of upgrading their property through the installation of heat pumps or solar panels. Last year Giorgia Meloni, the hard-right prime minister, scaled this subsidy back to a minimum because of spiralling costs caused by widespread abuse of the bonus. This upset homeowners, investors and builders. Sales of heat pumps in Italy dropped sharply.

“There is a lot of misinformation and angst about heat pumps,” concedes Mario Kohle, chief executive of Enpal, a German green-tech firm that sells solar panels and heat pumps. Some believe they cost €100,000 ($107,000) and that you need underfloor heating to install a heat pump. 

In fact, says Mr Kohle, the cost of heat pumps starts at €7,800 for those who qualify for the government’s subsidy. Underfloor heating increases the efficiency of heat pumps, but it is not a requirement.

The Scandinavian public is generally well informed about the long-term advantages of low-carbon heating, but in the rest of Europe the general view of heat pumps is distorted by stubborn myths, says Martin Lewerth, boss of Aira, a Swedish maker of heat pumps. A study by Jan Rosenow, an energy expert, found 18 such criticisms. Mr Lewerth considers four of them to be especially damaging to his industry: heat pumps don’t work in existing buildings; they don’t work when it is cold; they will increase heating bills; and their technology is new and untested.

Yet amid all the criticisms and rebuttals surrounding heat pumps, the fact remains that they have become the dominant technology in cold Scandinavian countries. Their efficiency is such that they can lower heating costs even in countries such as Britain where the price of electricity is considerably higher than that of gas. And they have been around since they were invented in 1856 by Peter Ritter von Rittingen, an Austrian engineer.

Rumpy-pumpy

If Europe is to reach its goal of having 60m heat pumps installed within its borders by 2030, up from only 20m now, both the union and its members will need to do much more to promote the technology, especially since last year heat-pump sales declined by 5% on average in 14 EU countries after rising steeply for ten years. NiBE, a Swedish heat-pump maker, had to dismiss 500 workers in February. Vaillant, a German maker, cut 700 jobs, while Stiebel Eltron, a German rival, had to furlough hundreds of workers.

Policy zigzags such as the removal of government support for heat pumps in Italy and the Heizhammer debacle in Germany were probably the most important factor in the decrease in sales of the pumps. The commission ought to publish its plan as soon as possible, so as to give Europeans more certainty; though it might already be too late. The fight against climate change is one area where Europe can still claim to be a world leader. The EU Green Deal can still become the continent’s Apollo programme." [1]

Just dream about it. 

 1. The EU’s role as heat-pump pioneer. The Economist; London Vol. 452, Iss. 9404,  (Jul 6, 2024): 30.