Today, Americans with a college degree account for 38% of the population and 73% of household wealth

 

"New fault lines are emerging in American society based more on class than race.

The shift helped deliver the White House to Donald Trump and could continue to alter the political landscape if more Americans identify themselves less in the context of race and gender and more as belonging to a certain economic class.

"Race is not an issue for me," said Aaron Waters, a Black unionized construction worker in Chicago who voted for Trump after voting for President Biden and Barack Obama in past elections. "It's about what you can do for each and every one of us as a whole, as a U.S. citizen."

Trump made gains with most demographic groups in this month's election. 

But one of the biggest swings was among voters of all races who don't have a four-year college degree.

 He won them by 13 percentage points this time versus 4 percentage points in 2020 -- a huge change in a group that accounted for more than half of the electorate. 

College-educated voters of all races also swung to Trump, but to a much smaller degree.

Black and, to a greater extent, Latinos, meanwhile, ceded some of their longtime allegiance to Democrats. Trump gained with nonwhite voters of all education levels, but he made bigger gains with those who don't have degrees than with those who do.

Overall voting patterns still clearly reflect racial division. Black voters overwhelmingly backed Vice President Kamala Harris, and a slim majority of Latino voters did, too. William Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer, said the shifts could be a "blip" related to sharp inflation, and that it's too soon "to predict a multiracial transformation of the GOP."

There is evidence the shift in voting patterns predates this election. In 2022, for instance, voters in a Detroit district elected a non-Black representative to Congress, marking the first time in nearly 70 years that the majority-Black city had no Black representation in Congress.

"This is the shock of the early 21st century," said Todd Shaw, associate professor of political science and African-American studies at the University of South Carolina. Shaw said for many minority voters, economic anxiety often outweighs other political considerations, especially in the wake of a pandemic that hit many working voters hard.

The shift toward class-based sorting also comes as some of the nation's longtime racial categories -- white, Black and Hispanic -- are dissolving fast into more fluid and complex identities. As those categories blur, other factors, like education levels and class, are playing larger roles in Americans' quality-of-life and are increasingly driving choices.

Thirty years ago, Americans with a college degree accounted for roughly 20% of the population and held the same percentage of household wealth as those without a degree, according to the census and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 

Today, Americans with a college degree account for 38% of the population and 73% of household wealth.

Voting patterns among those without a college degree reflect the new fault lines, from white women in suburban Atlanta to Black construction workers and Latino retail employees in Chicago. These voters seem to have little in common on paper, but this month they coalesced around Trump.

That outcome reflected a shift in the decades-old orientation of the two-party political system. It marked just how successful the Republican Party has been at refashioning its image as the champion for the working class, and served as a warning sign for Democratic Party leadership.

American political alignment has shifted in big ways before, according to Colby College professor Nicholas F. Jacobs, who said that in the 1980s, it became more important whether a voter lived in an urban or rural area than whether they lived in a particular part of the country.

He sees evidence of a similar realignment along lines of class in this month's election. Democrats at times tried to use statistics, he said, to argue that inflation wasn't really hurting people and that voters' concerns about immigration were unfounded.

"The most important thing about class politics is the sense that you are recognized, you have value in our society, and the person seeking your vote sees you have dignity and worth," he said." [1]

D. Trump did exactly that.

1. U.S. News: Class, Not Race, Drives Political Identity --- Shift helped elect Trump and looms as the key factor in future voting trends. Whalen, Jeanne; Bauerlein, Valerie; Campo-Flores, Arian.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Nov 2024: A.6. 

 

Hasbro nustato žaidimo planą prieš galimus tarifus

  „Nerf ginklai. Monopoliniai stalo žaidimai. G.I. Joes. Kai kurie, Hasbro perkamiausi žaislai, gali pabrangti, jei, išrinktasis prezidentas, Donaldas Trumpas įves griežtus muitus Kinijos importui.

 

 Viena didžiausių JAV žaislų gamintojų teigė, kad derasi su tiekėjais ir svarsto dizaino pakeitimus prieš galimus naujus mokesčius. „Daugelį mėnesių ruošėmės bet kokiems nenumatytiems atvejams“, – interviu sakė „Hasbro“ generalinis direktorius Chrisas Cocksas.

 

 Naujų žaislų importo mokesčių grėsmė kyla dėl ilgalaikio pramonės perėjimo nuo Kinijos, kurį iš dalies paskatino didėjančios darbo jėgos sąnaudos šioje šalyje.

 

 „Hasbro“, „Barbie“ gamintoja „Mattel“ ir kiti daugelį metų stengėsi gaminti mažiau žaislų ir žaidimų Kinijoje, persikeldami į gamyklas kitose šalyse, įskaitant Vietnamą ir Indiją.

 

 Dėl naujų mokesčių šis perėjimas gali būti labiau būtinas, tačiau Hasbro pastangos rodo, kad tai gali būti sunku paspartinti.

 

 Visose pramonės šakose JAV bendrovės pastaraisiais metais diversifikavo savo tiekimo grandines nuo Kinijos, o tai iš dalies paskatino per pirmąją D. Trumpo kadenciją įvesti tarifai. Bideno administracija paliko daugelį tų mokesčių ir nustatė kai kuriuos naujus, taip padidindama spaudimą įmonėms ieškoti alternatyvų.

 

 Gamintojai nuo plieno ir puslaidininkių iki automobilių dalių keičia tiekimo linijas į komponentus iš kitų šalių.

 

 Pavyzdžiui, „Sharpie“ ir „Yankee Candle“ gamintoja „Newell Brands“ daugiau gamyklos darbų perkelia į JAV – tai yra pageidaujamas abiejų administracijų tarifų rezultatas.

 

 Kai kurie vadovai taip pat pripažįsta, kad kainos kils dėl prekybos kliūčių, kylančių tarp regionų.

 

 Dabartinis „Hasbro“ tikslas yra, kad per ketverius metus maždaug 20 % JAV pardavimų sudarytų iš Kinijoje pagamintų produktų, palyginti su maždaug 40 % šiandien. Iššūkiai, su kuriais susidūrė bendrovė, siekdama šio ilgalaikio tikslo, pabrėžia, žaislų gamintojų patiriamą, spaudimą.

 

 2022 m. generaliniu direktoriumi tapęs Cocksas imasi dešimtmetį trukusio Hasbro tikslo sumažinti įmonės priklausomybę nuo Kinijos.

 

 Nors pigesnių vietų lengva rasti, perėjimas į naują gamyklą, kurios gaminių kokybės ir saugos standartai būtų panašūs, gali būti iššūkis žaislų pramonei, teigia analitikai.

 

 Skirtingai, nei kai kuriose pramonės šakose, automatizavimas dar nepadarė didelių žingsnių tam tikrose žaislų gamybos proceso srityse. Daugelio žaislų surinkimas vis dar priklauso nuo kvalifikuotų darbuotojų, kurie surenka naujausią veiksmo figūrą arba rankomis dažo detales.

 

 Norint persikelti į kitą šalį, reikia parengti naujos kartos meistrus. Mažesnės gamyklos Pietų ir Pietryčių Azijos šalyse taip pat gali nepagaminti pakankamai vienetų, kad būtų galima lengvai pakeisti Kinijos gamyklas, sakė UBS analitikas Arpine Kocharian.

 

 Kocharianas sakė, kad „Hasbro“ lengviau perkelti gamyklas, nei likusiai žaislų pramonei, nes bendrovė didžiąją dalį jos produkcijos perduoda gamintojams iš išorės.

 

 Per prezidento rinkimų kampaniją respublikonas Trumpas kalbėjo apie 60% ar daugiau muitų įvedimą importui iš Kinijos, iki 100% kai kuriems importuojamiems produktams iš Meksikos ir nuo 10% iki 20% visam importui.

 

 Po laimėjimo jis pasakė sąjungininkams, kad naujosios administracijos prekybos caru taptų Robertas Lighthizeris, kuris padėjo įgyvendinti jo tarifų politiką per pirmąją kadenciją.

 

 Vis dar neaišku, kaip tarifai bus taikomi Hasbro ir žaislų pramonei. Per pirmąjį D. Trumpo prezidentavimą įvestų rinkliavų ture buvo pagailėta žaislų ir kai kurių kitų plataus vartojimo prekių.

 

 „Hasbro“ pasitraukimas iš Kinijos yra dalis 750 mln. dolerių sąnaudų mažinimo pastangų, kurios apima tiekėjų derybas dėl mažesnių kainų arba dizaino keitimą, kad jų statyba būtų pigesnė, pavyzdžiui, „Jenga“ blokai, kuriuose dabar naudojama vienos rūšies mediena. Pakeitimas sumažino išlaidas ir turėjo papildomos naudos, nes dalys sklandžiau išslysta iš Jenga bokšto, sakė Cocksas.

 

 Be tiekimo grandinės patobulinimų, bendrovė mažina darbuotojų skaičių. Praėjusių metų pabaigoje paskelbti atleidimai paveikė beveik 20% jos darbuotojų, o bendrovė nutraukė nepelningų ar perteklinių žaislų variantų gamybą.

 

 „Hasbro“ vadovai teigė, kad bendrovė siekia savo sąnaudų mažinimo tikslų ir kompensuoja mažėjančias pajamas, smukus žaislų pardavimui pramonėje. Bendrovės akcijų kaina šiemet pakilo 25%.

 

 Vaidmenų žaidimai, tokie, kaip Dungeons & Dragons ir kortų žaidimas Magic: The Gathering, pastaraisiais metais padidino Hasbro pardavimus ir pelną. „Hasbro“ paprastai turi didesnę šių produktų pelno maržą, o tai reiškia, kad tikslinga juos gaminti JAV. 2023 m. bendrovė pareiškė, kad „Magic“ tapo pirmuoju milijardų dolerių prekiniu ženklu pagal metinius pardavimus.

 

 Tuo tarpu Kinijos vyriausybė siekia, kad šalis nustotų būti pigesnių darbų, pavyzdžiui, žaislų gamybos, centru.

 

 „Žaislų gamyba nėra didelis prioritetas, todėl Kinijos lyderiai nežiūrėtų į nuolatinę šių pramonės šakų migraciją į Pietų ir Pietryčių Aziją, kaip į didžiulį nuostolį“, – sakė Stephenas Olsonas, apsilankantis Pietryčių Azijos studijų instituto bendradarbis, užsiimantis prekyba.

 

 „64 000 dolerių klausimas yra tas, koks iš tikrųjų yra Trumpo tarifų lygis – jis įvairiuose komentaruose nurodė gana platų diapazoną, todėl tai vis tiek yra X faktorius“, – sakė Olsonas." [1]

 

1. Hasbro Sets Game Plan Ahead of Possible Tariffs. Glickman, Ben; Khan, Natasha.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Nov 2024: A.1.

Hasbro Sets Game Plan Ahead of Possible Tariffs

"Nerf guns. Monopoly board games. G.I. Joes. Some of Hasbro's bestselling toys could get pricier if President-elect Donald Trump implements stiff tariffs on Chinese imports.

One of the U.S.'s largest toy makers said it is negotiating with suppliers and considering design changes ahead of potential new levies. "We've been preparing for many months for any contingency," Chris Cocks, Hasbro's chief executive, said in an interview.

The threat of new taxes on toy imports comes amid a long-term shift in the industry away from China, spurred in part by rising labor costs in that country. 

Hasbro, Barbie-maker Mattel and others have spent years trying to make fewer toys and games in China by relocating to factories in other countries, including Vietnam and India.

New levies might make that shift more of a necessity, but Hasbro's efforts demonstrate that it could be difficult to speed up.

Across industries, U.S. companies have been diversifying their supply chains away from China in recent years, prodded in part by tariffs implemented during Trump's first term. The Biden administration left many of those levies in place and layered on some new ones, intensifying the pressure on companies to find alternatives.

Makers of everything from steel and semiconductors to auto parts are rejiggering supply lines to source components from other countries. 

Sharpie and Yankee Candle maker Newell Brands, for example, is moving more factory work to the U.S. -- the desired result of the tariffs for both administrations. 

Some executives also acknowledge that prices will go up as a result of trade barriers being erected across regions.

Hasbro's current target is for about 20% of its U.S. sales to come from China-made products within four years, down from about 40% today. The challenges the company has faced in achieving a long-held goal underline the pressure facing toy makers.

Cocks, who became CEO in 2022, is taking up Hasbro's decadelong goal of reducing the company's reliance on China. 

While lower-cost locations are easy to find, switching to a new factory with similar product-quality and safety standards can be a challenge in the toy industry, analysts said.

Unlike in some industries, automation has yet to make major strides in parts of the toy-making process. Assembly for many toys still relies on skilled workers to put together the latest action figure or hand-paint details.

Shifting to a different country requires training a new generation of craftspeople. Smaller factories in South and Southeast Asian countries also might not produce enough units to easily replace Chinese facilities, UBS analyst Arpine Kocharian said.

Hasbro has an easier time relocating factories than the rest of the toy industry because the company outsources most of its production, Kocharian said.

During the presidential campaign, Trump, a Republican, talked about placing tariffs of 60% or more on imports from China, up to 100% on some imports from Mexico, and 10% to 20% on all imports. 

Since winning, he has told allies he wants Robert Lighthizer, who helped implement his tariff policies in his first term, as the new administration's trade czar.

There is still uncertainty around how the tariffs will apply to Hasbro and the toy industry. In the round of levies imposed during Trump's first presidency, toys and some other consumer goods were spared.

Hasbro's shift away from China is part of a $750 million cost-cutting push that includes negotiating lower prices from suppliers or changing designs to make them cheaper to build, such as Jenga blocks that now use a single type of wood. The change lowered costs and had the added benefit of making the pieces slide more smoothly out of a Jenga tower, Cocks said.

In addition to supply-chain improvements, the company is cutting its head count. Layoffs announced late last year affected nearly 20% of its workforce, and the company has discontinued unprofitable or redundant toy variants.

Hasbro executives said the company is on track to hit its cost-reduction targets and offset falling revenue amid an industrywide slump in toy sales. The company's share price has risen 25% this year.

Role-playing games such as Dungeons & Dragons and the card game Magic: The Gathering have generated increasing sales and profit for Hasbro in recent years. Those products tend to come with higher profit margins for Hasbro, meaning it makes sense to produce them in the U.S. The company said in 2023 that Magic has become its first billion-dollar brand in terms of annual sales.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government has been pushing for the country to graduate from being a hub for lower-cost work, such as toy making.

"Toy manufacturing is not a high priority, and a continued migration of these industries to South and Southeast Asia would not be viewed by the Chinese leadership as a major loss," said Stephen Olson, visiting fellow focusing on trade at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

"The $64,000 question is what level any of Trump's tariffs are actually set at -- he's indicated a fairly wide range in different comments, so it's still a bit of an X-factor," Olson said." [1]

1. Hasbro Sets Game Plan Ahead of Possible Tariffs. Glickman, Ben; Khan, Natasha.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Nov 2024: A.1.