"RIGA. Last Friday, a tanker loaded with Russian crude oil crashed off the coast of Rügen. The Eventin, which was on its way from Russia to Egypt, became unmaneuverable after all systems failed. As the ship was in German territorial waters, it was towed near Sassnitz, where it is now being searched by German customs. A short time later, there was another incident nearby when the tanker Jazz, also coming from Russia and flying the Panama flag like the Eventin, reported that it had to slow down due to engine failure. The ship is said to have drifted near an underwater data cable for the third time in a short period of time - which raises the suspicion that the Jazz may have been trying to cut the cable.
Scrap tankers circumvent sanctions
No damage was caused in either case, but they fuel fears of accidents involving the Russian "scrap tankers", which are considered outdated and barely seaworthy. They are part of the "shadow fleet" with which Russia successfully circumvents the oil price cap introduced by the Western sanctions coalition at the end of 2022. The measure was intended to make it impossible for Moscow to sell its oil for more than $60 a barrel, thereby reducing the Kremlin's revenue without withdrawing too much oil from the market and driving up prices. Since both the global tanker fleet and the market for its insurance were in Western hands, it was hoped that it would be able to monitor compliance with the price cap.
But Russia overcame both hurdles. First, it bought used tankers indirectly, registered them under so-called flags of convenience such as Panama or Gabon in Central Africa, concealed the ownership structure and solved the problem of insurers by using its own state-owned insurer Ingosstrakh and other Russian providers.
It is doubtful whether they would be able to cover costs in the event of an accident. Inspections are also made more difficult by the fact that the ships not only transport Russian oil, but are also used for other exporters. And finally, the documents about the selling price for the oil can also be forged.
But circumventing the price cap is currently the lesser concern about the shadow fleet, at least in the Baltic Sea states. The greater fear is environmental damage. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) said on the occasion of the Eventin accident that with the "nefarious use of a fleet of rusty tankers", Russian President Vladimir Putin is also "willingly accepting that tourism on the Baltic Sea will come to a standstill".
Other tankers are in use in the Baltic Sea, through which Russia transports around a third of its crude oil exports by ship. Sergei Wakulenko, who worked for the Russian oil company Gazprom Neft until 2022 and is now an expert on the Russian oil and gas market at the Carnegie think tank in Berlin, conducted research comparing all ships that had loaded Russian oil in the first nine months of 2024 with the global tanker fleet.
He uses data from ship trackers and comes to the conclusion that the more than 700 tankers that Russia used for its crude oil exports during that period were on average 17 years old - while the rest of the global tanker fleet was on average 13 years old.
This is "not a fundamental difference," says Wakulenko. He also points out to the FAZ that "according to statistics, the age of the tankers is not a decisive factor in accidents." The two worst incidents in recent years happened with ships that were 10 and 14 years old. In addition, says Wakulenko, a "considerable proportion" of the tankers that Russia used for crude oil exports last year were oil across the Baltic Sea, did exactly that in 2021, before the start of the full-scale conflict in Ukraine.
At the time, this did not cause any concern, just like the fact that even then around a quarter of the tankers used by Russia had insurance that was not part of the association of insurers recognized in the West. And other countries are also sending older tankers loaded with oil across the Baltic Sea: last year, for example, at least 11 oil tankers over 20 years old sailed through the Danish straits to Gdansk on behalf of the Polish company Orlen.
According to the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA), a failure of the drive system, such as in the case of the Eventin off Rügen, is also the most frequently registered category of incident in European waters. The number did not increase between 2021 and 2023, although Russia was already actively using its shadow fleet in 2023.
The oil tankers in the Baltic Sea mostly move in international waters, where the countries bordering the Baltic Sea have little control; a ban on passage for the Russian shadow tankers, for example, would contradict general maritime law.
At a meeting of NATO Baltic Sea countries in Helsinki this week, there were calls for laws to be changed at national or EU level in order to gain more room for maneuver. In addition, surveillance of the Baltic Sea is to be increased by aircraft, ships and naval drones, among other things, as is the inspection of ships "including their insurance certificates," the closing declaration of the meeting said. The sanctions against the shadow fleet are also to be expanded.
After the outgoing American President Joe Biden imposed comprehensive sanctions against the Russian oil sector just over a week ago, according to various estimates, a third to a half of the shadow tankers are on sanctions lists. On the one hand, the measures are considered effective - as can be seen, for example, in the fact that after the latest sanctions from Washington were announced, dozens of tankers carrying Russian oil had to stop their journey because Chinese ports, among others, would not let them in.
Will freight prices rise?
Delaying deliveries costs money and increases the discount that Russia has to give its buyers. The maintenance of the shadow fleet is also becoming more expensive due to the sanctions. On the other hand, despite many sanctioned ships, Moscow has so far managed to transport more and more oil by tanker - according to the Kyiv School of Economics, the delivery capacity of the shadow fleet increased by almost 70 percent between June 2023 and June 2024. In addition, the West cannot sanction all ships used by Russia, as many of them are part of the global tanker fleet: around 20 percent of the ships of the frequently used Aframax class used worldwide are now under sanctions, says Wakulenko. The industry is therefore already worried about higher freight prices and a possible shortage of ships." [1]
1. Wieso Putins Schattenflotte so schwer beizukommen ist: Die russischen "Schrottöltanker" rufen Ängste vor Umweltschäden in der Ostsee hervor / Doch die könnten in besserem Zustand sein als gedacht. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Frankfurt. 18 Jan 2025: 18.
