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2026 m. sausio 8 d., ketvirtadienis

How Google Got Its AI Groove Back --- Powerful new Gemini model allowed it to catch up to OpenAI's ChatGPT


“In the wee hours of an August morning, an artificial-intelligence project manager at Google loaded the newest creation from its DeepMind lab onto a platform that ranks AI models.

 

Google had fallen behind in the AI race, while its rival OpenAI had attracted hundreds of millions of users to its ChatGPT chatbot. Google researchers were hoping that a new feature -- a lightning-fast image generator -- would give the search titan an edge in a weak spot for ChatGPT.

 

Naina Raisinghani, known inside Google for working late into the night, needed a name for the new tool to complete the upload. It was 2:30 a.m., though, and nobody was around. So she just made one up, a mashup of two nicknames friends had given her: Nano Banana.

 

Within days, Nano Banana had the top spot in performance rankings on the platform LM Arena, was trending on X and had far exceeded Google's usage expectations. By September, Google's Gemini AI app had become the most downloaded app in Apple's app store.

 

Two months later, Google launched its most powerful Gemini model yet, which surged past competitors to become the most capable AI chatbot. With that, the Alphabet-owned company had leapfrogged OpenAI to the front of the AI pack.

 

Google's deep roots in science and research, willingness to pour billions of dollars into developing custom hardware, and leadership changes in recent years that cleared the way for faster experimentation are now paying off. It also has managed to protect its all-important search business -- at least for now -- from the surging popularity of chatbots, which are changing how consumers use the internet.

 

Google's AI work has begun generating substantial revenue through search ads, paid versions of Gemini for consumers and business and sales of new computer chips developed in-house. The November release of Google's latest Gemini model outperformed ChatGPT on a variety of measures, sending Alphabet's stock soaring and triggering a Code Red inside OpenAI. That company has since narrowed the race with the launch of a more powerful version of ChatGPT, which still has far more users than Google's Gemini.

 

Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai talked up the magnitude of the company's AI push on the day the new Gemini model launched. "Love to see that we're launching at the scale of Google," he told employees in an internal memo.

 

When Pichai rose to the top job at Google in 2015, AI was a technology of keen interest to computer science researchers and almost no one else. The following year, he declared that the company known to consumers for its search engine, maps and productivity tools was going all in on AI.

 

In a memo posted to the company's blog, Pichai wrote that the previous decade had been all about a smartphone-oriented world. "But in the next 10 years," he predicted, "we will shift to a world that is AI-first, a world where computing becomes universally available."

 

Google already had laid the foundation with an AI research division called Google Brain, which was co-founded in 2011 by Jeff Dean, a computer scientist who helped develop the neural-network technology that underpins today's large language models. A few years later, Google acquired DeepMind, the London-based AI research lab co-founded by Demis Hassabis, a chess prodigy who would later share a Nobel Prize for work on an AI system that aids biomolecular research.

 

In a move that drew less attention at the time, Google also started designing its own AI chips, believing it would need vastly more computing power to support applications such as voice recognition. Those chips, called tensor-processing units, or TPUs, were designed to draw less power than the central-processing units in computers or the graphics-processing units in videogame cards. They would prove a game changer, for Google and the industry.

 

Early on, though, the company took a cautious approach to developing its own chatbots. Some of its executives and researchers had concerns about the safety of such technology, which has the potential to produce inaccurate, biased or otherwise problematic information.

 

Julia Winn, a former Google Brain employee, said chatbots weren't initially seen as core to the company's broader AI ambitions, and that in tests of early models, it proved easy to prompt racist or sexist responses.

 

"Those kinds of risks Google just took way more seriously than any place I've worked, and for understandable reasons," she said. Such caution frustrated a number of company researchers, some of whom decamped.

 

In August 2022, Google introduced a chatbot model with a range of conversational abilities, making it available to a limited number of people through an app called AI Test Kitchen, a proving ground of sorts. Google named it LaMDA and allowed users to test three functions: "Imagine It," "List It," and "Talk About It (Dogs Edition)," which enabled users to have a conversation only about dogs.

 

Three months later, OpenAI made ChatGPT available to the public following its own multiyear effort to create a chatbot that could not only engage in dialogue but produce stories, jokes, computer code and more.

 

Within five days, a million people signed up to test it. Unlike with Google's LaMDA, users didn't face significant restrictions in how they used it.

 

Some Google employees who had spent years working on the technology seethed at being lapped. Others were stunned at how quickly the public engaged with ChatGPT.

 

Analysts and investors wondered whether Google was missing technology's next big wave. They were asking how quickly the company could launch its own AI products, and whether the rise of chatbots would erode Google's search and advertising businesses, which had brought in $254 billion in revenue in 2022.

 

Dean and Hassabis, Google's two veteran AI scientists, and James Manyika, a roboticist who joined in 2022, worked to unite the DeepMind and Brain divisions in training AI. In January 2023, they presented to Alphabet's board of directors their plan for building the company's smartest model yet.

 

In the meantime, Google needed a chatbot to offer users -- and fast. The following month, it launched Bard, built off its LaMDA model. It botched the introduction.

 

In a video promoting Bard, Google showed it responding to a question about the James Webb Space Telescope. The chatbot inaccurately responded that the telescope took "the very first pictures" of a planet outside the solar system. The stumble sent Alphabet shares down 8%.

 

Around that time, Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who had recently retired, was at a party chatting with a researcher from OpenAI named Daniel Selsam, according to people familiar with the conversation. Why, Selsam asked him, wasn't he working full time on AI. Hadn't the launch of ChatGPT captured his imagination as a computer scientist?

 

ChatGPT was on its way to becoming a household name in AI chatbots, while Google was still fumbling to get its product off the ground. Brin decided Selsam had a point and returned to work.

 

For much of 2023, Google executives labored to coordinate and align its AI development efforts. The cultures of the Brain and DeepMind divisions were different, with the former more focused on research and the latter on building products, according to former employees, creating tension after they were combined.

 

Still, Google possessed one overwhelming advantage over its big rival. OpenAI had to raise money from investors; Google could fund research and development out of its multibillion-dollar profits. But Google also had to find a way to keep generative AI from killing its golden goose -- its 90% share of the web search market, the foundation of its advertising business.

 

To figure out what AI-driven search should look like, the company began a multiteam effort called Project Magi, led by Liz Reid, who became Google's vice president of search in 2024. The group's challenge, she explained in an interview, was to figure out how to revamp the search system to quickly present a clear answer to a question when the answer wasn't contained on a single webpage.

 

"People don't just use search, they rely on search," she said. "If you screw up, you're going to hear from your mom, you're going to hear from your friend, you're going to hear from your child."

 

Google released its first Gemini model before the end of 2023. While OpenAI initially had trained ChatGPT primarily on text, Google had trained Gemini on text, code, audio, images and video, which is one reason it took longer to develop, former employees said.

 

The first version of Gemini still lagged behind ChatGPT in many ways, but Google's technically more ambitious approach would pay dividends over time, just as its early research in neural networks had.

 

"I do think we still have benefited from that long history," Brin observed in December at a Stanford University event.

 

In May 2024, Google introduced AI Overviews -- short, AI generated summaries that often appear at the top of search results. What followed was the biggest overhaul of Google's search engine in years: the development of AI Mode, a search option that answers queries in a chatbot-style conversation. Internally, demo after demo showed what could be possible, but also how difficult it was to reprogram search to become chatbot-like while retaining speed and quality, Reid said.

 

Finally, after many iterations, Reid said, she and others on the team began seeing enough value to roll it out publicly. "We started to see ourselves seek it out, not just for testing, but being like, 'Oh, I want to use this,'" Reid recalled.

 

Google launched AI Mode last May. It also introduced Gemini 2.5, a more powerful version of its AI model, but it didn't generate as much buzz as many employees expected. Alphabet's share price, which had fallen since the start of the year, continued to languish over the summer.

 

The August introduction of Nano Banana boosted Google's shares. Josh Woodward, who oversees the Gemini app as well as Google Labs -- a proving ground of sorts for new AI applications -- called the launch a "success disaster." When people around the world began generating millions, and then billions, of images, Google was hard-pressed to find enough computing power to meet the demand. The company, he said, used emergency loans of server time to get more computing capacity.

 

By October, Gemini had more than 650 million monthly users, up from 450 million in July.

 

 

The November launch of Gemini 3 triggered another bottleneck in computing capacity. It is a problem that Google has been anticipating for more than a decade, and its solution -- the AI computer chips it developed -- is looking like a competitive edge. Its latest chip, called Ironwood, has helped significantly reduce the cost of running its AI models.

 

In an internal memo to employees this December, Pichai sounded a triumphant note. "We're ending 2025 in a great position," he wrote. "Thinking back to where we were as a company even just a year ago, it's incredible to see the progress."” [1]

 

1. How Google Got Its AI Groove Back --- Powerful new Gemini model allowed it to catch up to OpenAI's ChatGPT. Blunt, Katherine.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 08 Jan 2026: A1.  

 

„AbbVie“ beveik pasiekė sandorį dėl „Revolution Medicines“

 

„Pasak su šiuo klausimu susipažinusių šaltinių, „AbbVie“ veda pažengusias derybas dėl vėžio vaistų biotechnologijų bendrovės „Revolution Medicines“ įsigijimo. Tai būtų vienas pirmųjų šių metų didžiulių sandorių.

 

Sandoris gali būti sudarytas netrukus, jei derybose nebus jokių paskutinės minutės kliūčių, teigė šaltiniai.

 

Po to, kai „The Wall Street Journal“ pranešė apie derybas dėl sandorio, „AbbVie“ pareiškė, kad „nevykdo derybų“ su „Revolution“.

 

Su šiuo klausimu susipažinęs asmuo teigė, kad sandoris dar nėra baigtas ir gali laimėti kitas pretendentas.

 

Prieš tai, kai „The Wall Street Journal“ trečiadienio popietę pranešė apie derybas, „Revolution Medicines“ rinkos vertė buvo apie 16 mlrd. JAV dolerių. Jos akcijos užsidarė apie 30 %, todėl rinkos vertė siekia apie 20 mlrd. JAV dolerių.

 

Kai kurie šaltiniai teigė, kad „Revolution“ sulaukė kitų pretendentų susidomėjimo. Neįmanoma sužinoti, kiek „AbbVie“ siūlo.

 

„AbbVie“, kurios rinkos vertė viršija 400 mlrd. JAV dolerių, maždaug pusę savo metinių pajamų gauna iš vaistų, skirtų imuninei sistemai, pardavimo. tokias ligas kaip psoriazinis artritas ir Krono liga.

 

Ženklas, rodantis, kad „AbbVie“ akcininkams patinka sandoris, taip pat pakilo vaistų gamintojos akcijų vertė po žurnalo pranešimo.

 

„Revolution Medicines“ pridėjimas sustiprintų „AbbVie“ pastangas įsitvirtinti daugiau nei 250 milijardų dolerių vertės pasaulinėje vėžio vaistų rinkoje.

 

Biotechnologijų įmonė kuria vaistus, nukreiptus prieš daugelio vėžio rūšių molekulinį variklį, vadinamą RAS.

 

Biotechnologijų įmonės eksperimentiniai vaistai siekia blokuoti RAS, sustabdydami plaučių vėžio, kasos vėžio ir kitų navikų vystymąsi. Molekulės vis dar kuriamos, o kai kurios dar nepateko į žmonių bandymus, teigiama biotechnologijų įmonės svetainėje. „AbbVie“ lažinasi, kad jie pasirodys esantys saugūs – niekas nėra tikras.

 

Vis dėlto, jei vaistai pasiteisins, jie pasiūlys labai reikalingų galimybių pacientams ir atneš didžiulį atlygį „AbbVie“. Vaistų tyrėjai jau dešimtmečius ieško būdų, kaip slopinti RAS, nes jis atlieka svarbų vaidmenį daugelio vėžio rūšių atveju.

 

Netoli Čikagos įsikūrusi „AbbVie“ teigė, kad ją labiau domina Įsigydama mechanizmus ir technologijas, galinčias tiekti vaistus, skatinančius įmonės augimą ateinantį dešimtmetį ir vėliau, o ne patikrintą turtą.

 

Kaip ir daugelis didelių vaistų gamintojų, „AbbVie“ siekė įsitvirtinti vėžio vaistų srityje, kurie yra vieni perkamiausių pramonėje.

 

Viename didžiausių sandorių bendrovė 2015 m. už 21 mlrd. dolerių įsigijo „Pharmacyclics“ ir jos dalį pelningo kraujo vėžio gydymo. Nuo to laiko „AbbVie“ sudarė ir kitų sandorių, įskaitant 10 mlrd. dolerių vertės „ImmunoGen“ ir jos kiaušidžių vėžio gydymo įsigijimą 2024 m.

 

„Revolution Medicines“ RAS vaistų tyrimai kyla iš Harvardo universiteto mokslininko ir verslininko Gregory Verdine'o darbo, kuris padėjo įkurti įmonę pavadinimu „Warp Drive Bio“, kuri rado molekules, kurios atakavo taikinį sekvenuodamos bakterijų genomus." [1]

 

„Warp Drive Bio“ buvo biotechnologijų įmonė, žinoma dėl savo novatoriškos genomo gavybos platformos, kuri sekvenavo bakterijų DNR, kad surastų naujas vaistų molekules, ypač taikydama anksčiau „nevaistinius“ vėžio baltymus, tokius kaip KRAS, ir kūrė naujus antibiotikus, tyrinėdama natūralius junginius iš dirvožemio mikrobų. Tai lėmė, kad „Revolution Medicines“ ją įsigijo 2018 m. Jų pagrindinė technologija „SMART™“ leido jiems perkurti natūralius produktus, kad jie jungtųsi su sunkiais baltymų paviršiais, taip sukuriant naujas veiksmingas terapijas.

 

„SMART™“ platforma (specifinė molekulinė architektūra atpažinimui ir terapijai) yra vaistų kūrimo metodas, kuriuo sukuriamos molekulės, kurios jungiasi prie anksčiau „nevaistinių“ baltymų paviršių, ypač aktualios vėžio atveju, jungdamosi su plokščiomis, beformėmis baltymų sritimis, kurių tradicinės mažos molekulės nepastebi, dažnai naudodamos natūralių produktų karkasus, tokius kaip makrociklai, kad pasiektų naują jungimosi ir terapinį poveikį, pavyzdžiui, nukreipdamos į aktyvuotą KRAS. Ji daugiausia dėmesio skiria unikalių molekulinių kontaktų ir sudėtingų struktūrų išnaudojimui, siūlydama naują būdą kovoti su sudėtingais ligų taikiniais, neapsiribojant įprastomis jungimosi vietomis, taikant ją onkologijoje, CNS ir su amžiumi susijusiose ligose.

 

Pagrindinės sąvokos ir mechanizmas:

 

Taikymasis į „nevaistinius“ baltymus: Tradiciniams vaistams reikia gilių kišenių, tačiau SMART™ technologija taikosi į didelius, plokščius arba trumpalaikius baltymų paviršius (baltymų ir baltymų sąveikos vietas), kuriuos sunku pasiekti.

 

Molekulinė architektūra: Ji naudoja natūralių produktų (pvz., makrociklų) būdingas struktūras kaip atspirties taškus, kad sukurtų molekules, kurios tinka šiems sudėtingiems paviršiams, išnaudodama unikalius sąlyčio taškus.

 

Makrociklai yra didelės žiedo formos molekulės, kurių žiede yra bent 12 atomų, panaikinančios atotrūkį tarp tradicinių mažų molekulių ir didelių biologinių preparatų, siūlydamos unikalias vaistų savybes, tokias kaip geresnis prisijungimas prie taikinio (ypač sudėtingose ​​baltymų sąsajose) ir potencialus biologinis prieinamumas per burną, nepaisant istorinių projektavimo iššūkių, todėl jie yra perspektyvūs naujoms terapijoms.

 

Chemijos ir vaistų atradimo skyrius

 

Apibrėžimas: Gamtoje randamos organinės molekulės su 12 ar daugiau atomų žiedais (pvz., ciklosporinas, eritromicinas) arba susintetinti.

 

Privalumai: Jų iš anksto organizuotos, pusiau standžios struktūros gali jungtis dideliu afinitetu ir selektyvumu, pasiekdamos sudėtingas baltymų vietas (pvz., baltymų ir baltymų sąveiką), kurių mažesni vaistai dažnai nepastebi, tuo pačiu potencialiai išlikdamos biologiškai prieinamos per burną.

 

Iššūkiai: Sudėtingos formos (konformacinis lankstumas) ir geros absorbcijos / pasiskirstymo (ADME savybės) pasiekimas istoriškai buvo kliūtys, nors pažanga jas įveikia.

 

Pavyzdžiai: Naudojamas imunosupresantuose (ciklosporinas), antibiotikuose (vankomicinas) ir antivirusiniuose vaistuose, o nauji dizainai skirti įvairioms ligoms gydyti.

 

Naujas veikimo būdas: Sukuria diferencijuotus inhibitorius su unikaliais veikimo mechanizmais, leidžiančiais nukreipti dėmesį į aktyvuotas onkogenų būsenas (pvz., prie GTP surištą KRAS) arba sutrikdyti baltymų ir baltymų sąveiką (PPI).

 

Universalumas: Taikomas įvairioms ligoms, įskaitant vėžį (nukreiptas į KRAS, MYC), Alzheimerio, Parkinsono ligas ir su amžiumi susijusią geltonosios dėmės degeneraciją.

 

Kaip tai veikia (pavyzdys su „Warp Drive Bio“):

 

Taikinio nustatymas: sutelkite dėmesį į ligas sukeliančius baltymus su sunkiai jungiamomis paviršių, pvz., aktyvuotą KRAS formą.

Natūralių produktų panaudojimas: naudokite natūralių produktų karkasus (pvz., FKBP jungiančias molekules) kaip karkasus. FKBP jungiančios molekulės yra junginiai, dažnai vaistai arba natūralūs produktai, tokie kaip rapamicinas ir FK506 (takrolimuzas), kurie jungiasi prie FK506 jungiančių baltymų (FKBP) – ląstelių chaperonų šeimos, dalyvaujančios baltymų lankstyme ir signalizacijoje. Šie vaistų ir baltymų kompleksai tada nukreipiami į specifinius tarpląstelinius baltymus (pvz., kalcineuriną arba mTOR), sukeldami stiprų imunosupresinį arba priešvėžinį poveikį, o FKBP veikia kaip svarbūs molekuliniai jungikliai įvairiems biologiniams procesams.

 

Kintamo domeno inžinerija: modifikuokite karkaso „kintamą domeną“, kad sukurtumėte didelio afiniteto, specifinį prisijungimą prie unikalaus tikslinio baltymo paviršiaus.

 

Pasiekti terapinį poveikį: gauta molekulė (SMART™ molekulė) slopina baltymo funkciją, sukeldama priešvėžinį poveikį.

 

Reikšmė vėžio atveju:

 

Atveria naujas galimybes taikytis į istoriškai „nevaistinius“ onkogeninius veiksnius (pvz., KRAS, MYC).

Sudaro sąlygas taikyti naujas terapines strategijas, neapsiribojančias tradiciniu mažų molekulių slopinimu.

 

Pagrindinės technologijos ir veiklos kryptys:

 

Genomo kasimas: didelės bakterijų DNR analizė, siekiant atrasti naujus, neanalizuotus natūralius junginius, turinčius terapinį potencialą, apeinant tradicinės sintetinės chemijos ribas.

 

SMART™ platforma: metodas, skirtas sukurti ir optimizuoti molekules, kurios jungiasi prie „nevaistinių“ paviršių ant ligas sukeliančių baltymų, ypač vėžio atveju.

 

Tikslai: orientuoti į onkologiją (pvz., KRAS-G12C inhibitoriai) ir naujus antibiotikus, skirtus kovoti su vaistams atspariomis bakterijomis.

 

Pagrindiniai pokyčiai:

 

Įkurta 2012 m.: Paleista gavus „Third Rock Ventures“ ir „Sanofi“ paramą.

Įsigijo „Revolution Medicines“ (2018 m.): Šis įsigijimas integravo „Warp Drive“ platformą su „Revolution Medicines“ tiksliosios onkologijos produktų kūrimo procesu, sukurdamas stiprią į onkologiją orientuotą įmonę.

 

Bendradarbiavimas antibiotikų srityje: bendradarbiaujama su „Roche“ ir GSK, siekiant rasti naujų antibiotikų, skirtų daugeliui vaistų atsparioms infekcijoms.

 

Iš esmės „Warp Drive Bio“ panaudojo gamtos genetinį planą (bakterijų genomus), kad surastų galingas, unikalias molekules, kurias vėliau galėjo sukurti kovai su sunkiomis ligomis, tokiomis kaip vėžys ir infekcijos. Šį metodą vėliau perėmė „Revolution Medicines“.

 

1. AbbVie Near Deal for Revolution Medicines. Rockoff, Jonathan D; Thomas, Lauren; Lombardo, Cara.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 08 Jan 2026: B1

AbbVie Near Deal for Revolution Medicines


“AbbVie is in advanced talks to buy cancer-drug biotech Revolution Medicines, according to people familiar with the matter, in what would be one of the year's first megadeals.

 

A deal could come together soon, granted the talks don't hit any last-minute snags, the people said.

 

After The Wall Street Journal reported on the deal talks, AbbVie said it "is not in discussions" with Revolution.

 

A person familiar with the matter said a deal hasn't been finalized and another suitor may prevail.

 

Revolution Medicines had a market value of around $16 billion before the Journal reported on the talks Wednesday afternoon. Its shares closed up around 30%, giving it a market value of around $20 billion.

 

Revolution had drawn interest from other suitors, some of the people said. It couldn't be learned how much AbbVie is offering.

 

AbbVie, which has a market value of above $400 billion, generates about half of its yearly revenue from sales of drugs for immune conditions such as psoriatic arthritis and Crohn's disease.

 

In a sign that suggests AbbVie's shareholders like the deal, the drugmaker's shares also rose following the Journal's report.

 

Adding Revolution Medicines would bolster AbbVie's efforts to build its presence in the more than $250 billion worldwide market for cancer drugs.

 

The biotech is developing drugs targeting a molecular driver of many cancers known as RAS.

 

The biotech's experimental drugs seek to block RAS, halting lung cancer, pancreatic cancer and other tumors in their tracks. The molecules are still in development, and some still haven't entered human testing, according to the biotech's website. AbbVie is making a pricey bet that they will prove to work safely -- no sure thing.

 

Yet if the drugs pan out, they would offer much-needed options for patients and provide a huge payoff to AbbVie. Drug researchers have been seeking ways to inhibit RAS for decades because of its important role in many cancers.

 

AbbVie, based outside Chicago, has said it is more interested in acquiring mechanisms and technologies that can furnish drugs powering the company's growth over the next decade and further, rather than proven assets.

 

Like many big drugmakers, AbbVie has sought to build a beachhead in cancer drugs, which are among the industry's biggest sellers.

 

In one of its biggest deals, the company bought Pharmacyclics and its share of a lucrative blood-cancer treatment for $21 billion in 2015. AbbVie has been doing other deals since, including a $10 billion purchase in 2024 of ImmunoGen and its ovarian-cancer treatment.

 

Revolution Medicines's RAS-drug research stems from the work of a Harvard University scientist and entrepreneur Gregory Verdine, who helped establish a company, called Warp Drive Bio, that found molecules that attacked the target by sequencing the genomes of bacteria.” [1]

 

Warp Drive Bio was a biotech company known for its innovative genome mining platform that sequenced bacterial DNA to find new drug molecules, especially targeting previously "undruggable" cancer proteins like KRAS and developing novel antibiotics by exploring natural compounds from soil microbes, leading to its acquisition by Revolution Medicines in 2018. Their key technology, SMART™ allowed them to re-engineer natural products to engage difficult protein surfaces, creating powerful new therapies.

 

The SMART™ Platform (Specific Molecular Architecture for Recognition and Therapy) is

a drug design method, that creates molecules to bind to previously "undruggable" protein surfaces, especially relevant in cancer by engaging flat, featureless protein areas traditional small molecules miss, often using natural product scaffolds like macrocycles to achieve novel binding and therapeutic effects, like targeting activated KRAS. It focuses on exploiting unique molecular contacts and complex structures, offering a new way to tackle challenging disease targets beyond conventional binding pockets, with applications in oncology, CNS, and age-related diseases.

 

Key Concepts & Mechanism:

 

    Targeting "Undruggable" Proteins: Traditional drugs need deep pockets, but SMART™ technology targets large, flat, or transient protein surfaces (protein-protein interaction sites) that are hard to hit.

 

    Molecular Architecture: It uses the inherent structures of natural products (like macrocycles) as starting points to build molecules that fit these complex surfaces, exploiting unique contact points.

 

Macrocycles are large ring-shaped molecules with at least 12 atoms in their ring, bridging the gap between traditional small molecules and large biologics, offering unique drug properties like improved target binding (especially for challenging protein interfaces) and potential oral bioavailability, despite historical design challenges, making them promising for new therapies.

 

In Chemistry & Drug Discovery

 

    Definition: Organic molecules with rings of 12 or more atoms, found in nature (e.g., cyclosporine, erythromycin) or synthesized.

 

    Advantages: Their preorganized, semi-rigid structures can bind with high affinity and selectivity, accessing complex protein sites (like protein-protein interactions) often missed by smaller drugs, while potentially remaining orally bioavailable.

 

    Challenges: Complex shapes (conformational flexibility) and achieving good absorption/distribution (ADME properties) have historically been hurdles, though advances are overcoming these.

 

    Examples: Used in immunosuppressants (cyclosporine), antibiotics (vancomycin), and antivirals, with new designs targeting various diseases.

 

 

 

    Novel Modality: Creates differentiated inhibitors with unique mechanisms of action, allowing for targeting activated states of oncogenes (like GTP-bound KRAS) or disrupting protein-protein interactions (PPIs).

    Versatility: Applicable to various diseases, including cancer (targeting KRAS, MYC), Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

 

How it Works (Example with Warp Drive Bio):

 

    Identify Target: Focus on disease-causing proteins with difficult-to-bind surfaces, such as the activated form of KRAS.

    Leverage Natural Products: Utilize natural product scaffolds (e.g., FKBP-binding molecules) as frameworks. FKBP-binding molecules are compounds, often drugs or natural products like rapamycin and FK506 (tacrolimus), that bind to FK506-binding proteins (FKBPs), a family of cellular chaperones involved in protein folding and signaling. These drug-protein complexes then target specific intracellular proteins (like calcineurin or mTOR), leading to powerful immunosuppressive or anti-cancer effects, with FKBPs acting as crucial molecular switches for various biological processes.

 

    Engineer Variable Domain: Modify the "variable domain" of the scaffold to create high-affinity, specific binding to the target protein's unique surface.

 

    Achieve Therapeutic Effect: The resulting molecule (SMART™ molecule) then inhibits the protein's function, leading to anti-cancer effects.

 

Significance in Cancer:

 

    Opens new avenues for targeting historically "undruggable" oncogenic drivers (e.g., KRAS, MYC).

    Enables new therapeutic strategies beyond traditional small molecule inhibition.

 

 

Key Technologies & Focus:

 

    Genome Mining: Sifting through vast bacterial DNA to discover new, unanalyzed natural compounds with therapeutic potential, bypassing traditional synthetic chemistry limits.

    SMART™ Platform: A method to design and optimize molecules that bind to "undruggable" surfaces on disease-causing proteins, particularly in cancer.

    Targets: Focused on oncology (like KRAS-G12C inhibitors) and novel antibiotics to combat drug-resistant bacteria.

 

Key Developments:

 

    Founded in 2012: Launched with backing from Third Rock Ventures and Sanofi.

    Acquired by Revolution Medicines (2018): This acquisition integrated Warp Drive's platform with Revolution Medicines' precision oncology pipeline, creating a strong oncology-focused company.

    Antibiotic Collaborations: Partnered with Roche and GSK to find new antibiotics for multi-drug resistant infections.

 

In essence, Warp Drive Bio used nature's own genetic blueprint (bacterial genomes) to find powerful, unique molecules, which they could then engineer to fight tough diseases like cancer and infections, a method later absorbed by Revolution Medicines.

 

1. AbbVie Near Deal for Revolution Medicines. Rockoff, Jonathan D; Thomas, Lauren; Lombardo, Cara.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 08 Jan 2026: B1

Varis nulems dirbtinio intelekto, robotų ir karų ateitį. Jau dabar jaučiamas trūkumas.

„Kol pasaulis daugiausia dėmesio skiria naftai ir dujoms, kita žaliava gali nulemti mūsų ateitį. Šiandien žmonija susiduria su precedento neturinčiu jos trūkumu. Lenkijoje jo yra pakankamai.

 

„S&P Global“ analitikai perspėja, kad pasaulis susiduria su rimtu vario trūkumu dėl dirbtinio intelekto lenktynių ir didėjančių išlaidų gynybai. Šio metalo paklausa auga tuo metu, kai kasyklų tiekimas susiduria su struktūriniais apribojimais.

 

Varis yra rekordiškai brangus

 

Vario kaina pakilo iki rekordinio lygio ir viršijo 13 000 USD už toną dėl virtinės kasyklų uždarymo ir metalo atsargų kaupimo JAV, numatant galimus Donaldo Trumpo administracijos tarifus. JAV vario tiekimas jau pakėlė kainas aukščiau tradicinę paklausą atitinkančio lygio, o nauji šio metalo panaudojimo būdai ilgainiui gali lemti gilesnį šio metalo trūkumą rinkoje, praneša „Bloomberg“.

 

„S&P Global“ prognozuoja, kad per 15 metų pasaulinė vario paklausa padidės perpus iki 42 milijonų tonų. Nors tradiciniai šaltiniai, tokie kaip statyba, buitiniai prietaisai, transportas ir elektros energijos gamyba, vis dar sudaro didžiąją dalį vario paklausos, didžiausias padidėjimas pastebimas su energetikos pertvarka susijusiose srityse. Tai apima elektrines transporto priemones, atsinaujinančiąją energiją, baterijas ir elektros tinklų bei energijos kaupimo plėtrą.

 

Be to, yra naujų, sparčiai augančių paklausos šaltinių. Tikimasi, kad vario suvartojimas duomenų centruose ir dirbtinio intelekto infrastruktūroje smarkiai išaugs, nes iki 2040 m. pasaulinių įrengtų duomenų centrų pajėgumai, kaip prognozuojama, išaugs beveik keturis kartus. Todėl iki 2040 m. vario paklausa šiose srityse gali išaugti maždaug tris kartus, o bendras suvartojimas padidės 4 mln. tonų.

 

DI ir robotams reikia daug vario

 

S&P analitikai taip pat nustatė dar vieną potencialų augančios vario paklausos šaltinį: humanoidinius robotus. Nors ši technologija yra ankstyvoje vystymosi stadijoje, remiantis tyrimu, vienam milijardui humanoidinių robotų, veikiančių iki 2040 m., reikės maždaug 1,6 mln. tonų vario per metus, arba apie 6 proc. dabartinio suvartojimo.

 

Tuo tarpu pasaulinė vario gamyba pasieks piką – 33 mln. tonų 2030 m., nes rūdos kokybė esamose kasyklose blogėja, o naujiems projektams kyla kliūčių gaunant leidimus, finansuojant ir statant. Tyrimas rodo, kad net ir smarkiai padidėjus vario perdirbimui (tikimasi, kad per šį laikotarpį jis padvigubės iki 10 mln. tonų), trūkumas sieks 10 mln. tonų.

 

Tiekimo problemą dar labiau paaštrina ilgas projektų įgyvendinimo laikas, didėjantis išlaidos ir labai koncentruota tiekimo grandinė, todėl rinka tampa vis labiau pažeidžiama sutrikimų, didėjant paklausai – teigia S&P.

 

2026-ieji prasidėjo reikšmingu bazinių metalų, įskaitant varį, kainų padidėjimu. Kitos žaliavos, svarbios naujų technologijų plėtrai, taip pat pabrango: sausio 2 d. aliuminio kaina pirmą kartą per daugiau nei trejus metus viršijo 3000 USD už toną. Metalų kainų padidėjimą lėmė numatomas tiekimo trūkumas ir prognozuojama paklausa. Sausio 7 d. geležies rūdos kainos pasiekė aukščiausią lygį nuo 2025 m. vasario mėn.

 

Žaliavos

Kiek vario turi Lenkija?

 

Pasauliniu mastu daugiausia vario turi Čilė (209 mln. tonų), po jos seka Australija, Peru, Meksika ir Lenkija. Lenkijos geologijos instituto duomenimis, 2024 m. pabaigoje dviejuose Lenkijos regionuose esančiuose telkiniuose buvo 3,5 mlrd. tonų vario rūdos ir 56,72 mln. tonų vario. Lenkijoje yra didžiausia vario rūdos kasykla Europoje – Rudna. Numatoma, kad Lenkijoje galimi vario ištekliai siekia 165 mln. tonų. iš kurių 98 mln. tonų galima pelningai išgauti naudojant dabartines technologijas. Mūsų šalis galėtų pagaminti daugiau nei 1 mln. tonų vario per metus, jei būtų investuojama į naujas kasyklas. Šiuo metu mes pagaminame maždaug 400 000 tonų vario per metus.“

 

Rusija pagamina maždaug 900 000–930 000 metrinių tonų vario per metus, o naujausi 2023 ir 2024 m. duomenys rodo apie 910 000–930 000 tonų – tai nuolatinė gamyba, kurią palaiko tokie dideli gamintojai kaip „Norilsk Nickel“ ir besikurianti Udokano kasykla, nors kai kurie skaičiavimai rodo nedidelį padidėjimą 2024 m. iki beveik 965 000 tonų.

 

Pagrindiniai gamintojai ir projektai:

 

„Norilsk Nickel“ (Nornickel): pagrindinis Rusijos vario produkcijos veiksnys. Udokano vario kasykla: ši didelė Sibiro kasykla pradėjo gamybą 2023 m., o iki pilno veikimo pradžios planuojama gerokai padidinti metinę produkciją iki 400 000–450 000 tonų.

 

Gavybą įtakojantys veiksniai:

 

Rusija turi didžiulius vario rezervus, ypač Sibire ir Urale.

Nauji projektai, tokie kaip Udokanas, didina nacionalinę produkciją.

 

Rusija yra tarp dešimties didžiausių vario gamintojų. Lenkija – ne.

 


 


Copper will decide the future of AI, robots, and wars. There's already a shortage.

 

“While the world focuses on oil and gas, another raw material may determine our future. Today, humanity faces an unprecedented shortage of it. Poland has enough of it.

 

“S&P Global analysts warn that the world faces a serious copper shortage due to the race for artificial intelligence and increasing defense spending. Demand for this metal is rising at a time when supply from mines is struggling with structural limitations.

Copper is record-breakingly expensive

 

The price of copper has risen to a record level, exceeding $13,000 per ton, due to a series of mine closures and the accumulation of metal stocks in the US in anticipation of potential tariffs from the Donald Trump administration. US copper supplies have already pushed prices above levels consistent with traditional demand, and new applications of this metal could lead to a deepening shortage in the market in the long term, Bloomberg reports.

 

S&P Global forecasts that global demand for copper will increase by half to 42 million tons within 15 years. Although traditional sources such as construction, household appliances, transport, and power generation still account for most of the demand for copper, the largest increase is seen in applications related to the energy transition. This includes electric vehicles, renewable energy, batteries, and the expansion of power grids and energy storage.

 

In addition, there are new, rapidly growing sources of demand.” Copper consumption in data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to increase sharply, as global installed data center capacity is projected to nearly quadruple by 2040.  Therefore, demand for copper from these applications could increase approximately threefold by 2040, increasing total consumption by 4 million tons.

AI and robots need a lot of copper

 

S&P analysts have also identified another potential source of growing demand for copper: humanoid robots. Although this technology is in its early stages of development, according to the study, one billion humanoid robots operating by 2040 will require approximately 1.6 million tons of copper annually, or about 6 percent of current consumption.

 

Meanwhile, global copper production will peak at 33 million tons in 2030, as ore quality in existing mines deteriorates and new projects face obstacles in obtaining permits, financing, and construction. The study shows that even with a sharp increase in copper processing (expected to more than double to 10 million tons during this period), the shortage will amount to 10 million tons.

 

The supply problem is exacerbated by long project lead times, rising costs, and a highly concentrated supply chain, making the market increasingly vulnerable to disruptions as demand increases – according to S&P.

 

2026 began with a significant increase in the prices of base metals, including copper. Other raw materials important for the development of new technologies also became more expensive: on January 2nd, aluminum prices exceeded $3,000 per ton for the first time in over three years. The increase in metal prices was caused by anticipated supply shortages and projected demand. On January 7, iron ore prices reached their highest level since February 2025.

Raw materials

How much copper does Poland have?

 

Globally, Chile has the most copper (209 million tons), followed by Australia, Peru, Mexico, and Poland. According to the Polish Geological Institute, at the end of 2024, deposits located in two regions of Poland contained 3.5 billion tons of copper ore and 56.72 million tons of copper. Poland is home to the largest copper ore mine in Europe – Rudna. Estimated prospective copper resources in Poland amount to 165 million tons, of which 98 million tons can be profitably extracted using current technologies. Our country could produce over 1 million tons of copper annually, provided significant investments are made in new mines. Currently, we produce approximately 400,000 tons of copper per year.”

 

Russia produces roughly 900,000 to 930,000 metric tons of copper per year, with recent data from 2023 and 2024 indicating figures around 910,000 to 930,000 tonnes, a consistent output supported by major producers like Norilsk Nickel and the emerging Udokan mine, though some estimates show slight increases for 2024 to near 965,000 tonnes.

 

Key Producers & Projects:

 

    Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel): A major contributor to Russia's copper output.

    Udokan Copper: This large Siberian mine began production in 2023, with plans to significantly increase its annual output to 400,000-450,000 tonnes by full operation.

 

Factors Influencing Output:

 

    Russia holds vast copper reserves, particularly in Siberia and the Urals.

    New projects, like Udokan, are boosting national production.

 

Russia is intop ten copper producers. Poland isn’t.