Sanctions and Russians

 "And one reason maybe to be a bit more optimistic is that, like you said, Japan started a war in 20-th century since Japan was totally dependent on importing oil, and the import stopped because of sanctions. For Russia, sanctions hit its export. So Russia will still have fuel. There will still be things to power cars and to keep the lights on in Russia. Russia also still will have food, which it is self-sufficient in.

But it’s going to be lacking a lot of other things. It’s going to basically lack all the money that it would earn from oil and gas in ordinary times with which it would pay for essential imports.

It could probably sell a bunch to India and China and to other Asian countries. And I actually think that is not insignificant, that that could be a lifeline because those countries aren’t part of the Western sanctions. But that will have to be expanded. And Asian countries, I think, are going to have to be buying more than they’re buying now if that is to be a long-run lifeline to Putin."