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2022 m. liepos 19 d., antradienis

A second Afghanistan for us: What will be the real cost of betrayals - Zelensky is forced to ask questions, but the answers to them can be very unpleasant

"Hundreds of alleged cases of treason and aiding or abetting Russia involving officials of the Ukrainian security services. Having revealed this, Volodymyr Zelenskiy touched on one of the most painful places, which has already cost Ukrainians very dearly - lost territories and lives. But the hour of purification and retribution may bring more unpleasant surprises as you unravel the webs of Kremlin spies.

Now one obvious thing has become clear: where the Kremlin was most successful in the initial phases, the preparatory work was done by the Russian special services and their hired or otherwise recruited traitors in Ukraine itself.

If in 2014, the paralyzed Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) was simply teeming with traitors, officers who sympathized with Russia and eventually joined it, who even betrayed their colleagues, then in the last 8 years the situation should, it seems, have changed dramatically.

And indeed, the cosmetically reformed intelligence of Ukraine caught more than one agent who spied or otherwise helped Russia, infiltrated both inside the SBU and in other institutions. However, V. Zelenskiy's recent decision to fire Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova and Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Ivan Bakanova amid increasing reports of alleged cases of treason by Ukrainian law enforcement officers shows that the situation has not really changed for the better.

The mere fact that V. Zelenskiy is forced to sacrifice I. Bakanov, his childhood friend and close comrade who has lost trust, is more than an eloquent fact. After all, since February 24th, SBU officers have helped to uncover more than one conspiracy against the President of Ukraine, carried out special operations at the front or in the rear, rescuing Kyiv or helping to detect and destroy Russian generals.

Naturally, many questions may now arise about where the Kremlin's tentacles have penetrated, who can be trusted for plans, decision-making, and who cannot. And this is relevant not only for Ukraine, but also for its allies, including Lithuania.

Scouts - part of the 5th column

The fact that the SBU is a controversial institution is no surprise in Ukraine. In 2014, it was the officers of the special unit "Alfa" assigned to the SBU who allegedly shot at protesters on the Maidan.

After Viktor Yanukovych, the former leader of Ukraine, considered a Kremlin stooge, fled the country, some of the SBU officers who carried out orders followed him, including the commander of "Alfa" Alexander Khodakovsky, who joined the Kremlin-led separatists and became one of their unit commanders , and later he was even appointed as the Minister of Security of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The head of the SBU Oleksandr Jakymenko himself, along with the head of counterintelligence and a dozen other senior intelligence officers, also fled and later turned up in Russia - a total of 235 SBU agents identified as having worked for the FSB, SVR, GRU or other Russian secret services.

Ukraine had not only to fight, but also to fill the gaps - to accept many young, supposedly reliable, patriotic officers, mostly from Western Ukraine, but who still passed additional checks.

I. Bakanovas was not one of them. His appointment became a matter of political trust and personal acquaintance with V. Zelenskii - with the former comedian, who unexpectedly became the president. V. Bakanov had known him for a long time, and he formally became the head of the SBU in the early 2020s.

SBU - which has changed more cosmetically than in reality since Soviet times, is still huge, up to 30 thousand. I. Bakanovas, who was supposed to reform the institution with employees, never fulfilled the task.

It was the actions of Ukrainian intelligence, or at least its elements, that led to the first major losses in the east and especially the south of the country.

Hundreds of Russian agents escaped

I. Bakanov's downfall is now associated not so much with what he did, but rather with what he did not do and what he did not prevent. V. Zelenskiy considered dismissing I. Bakanov as early as June, although he could have expected dismissal as early as March, when V. Zelenskiy dishonorably dismissed high-ranking SBU officers - General Serhii Kryvoruchko, Colonel Ihoris Sadochin and General Andryi Naumov, called them traitors and allowed their arrest.

The first two not only evacuated Kherson before the Russian troops appeared, but also informed them on the run of the locations of the Ukrainian forces, preventing them from blowing up the bridges over the Dnieper in time, which would have slowed down the Russians or even prevented them from taking the important Ukrainian city, which the Ukrainians are now trying to fight back .

Kherson fell on March 3, although according to the plan it was supposed to hold out as long as Mariupol - for several months. At that time, A. Naumov was running away from Ukraine, and he was caught only in Serbia, with 600,000. EUR, 125 thousand dollars and gems.

July 16 was no less a blow to the operations of Ukrainian forces. An operation by the State Bureau of Investigation, during which an arrest was made of Oleh Kulinič, deputy of SBU operations in Crimea.

It is ironic that V. Zelenskis appointed O. Kuliniči in 2020, in October, following the advice of I. Bakanov - the latter also trusted O. Kuliniči almost blindly.

Now O. Kulinič is accused of creating a criminal gang and treason, for which he can be sentenced to 15 years in prison.

It would seem that it is simply a misunderstanding, how O. Kulinič, a former confidant of V. Yanukovych who graduated from the FSB Academy, had no official experience as an intelligence officer for two decades, but who worked as the deputy of the head of Energoatom Andrijas Derkach, also an FSB trainee and a suspected Russian intelligence officer, earned V. Zelensky's trust.

It is suspected that it was O. Kulinič who also contributed to the faster and smoother than expected Russian attack in the Kherson region, when innocently established private security companies helped the Russians there, as well as the encirclement of Mariupol.

Although the battle for Mariupol itself has already gone down in history as one of the bloodiest, most difficult and costing Russia a lot, the Russians succeeded in encircling the port city, "miraculously" bypassing the minefields and defensive fortifications carefully prepared since 2014.

And there were many such stories when, after the start of open fighting with Russian forces, some SBU officers heroically joined the battles, but some simply ran away, did not follow orders to blow up bridges, even sabotaged such orders or, on the contrary, burned down SBU buildings.

Addressing the nation, Zelenskiy said that over 650 cases of suspected treason and aiding or abetting Russia involving officials of the Ukrainian security services are currently under investigation. According to the president, 60 cases are related to officials who remained in Russian-occupied territories and "worked against our state."

The shadow is also on the environment of the president

"Such a large number of crimes against the foundations of national security and the establishment of contacts between Ukrainian law enforcement officials and Russian special services raise very serious questions for the relevant leaders," V. Zelenskiy said. "Every such question will be answered."

However, the answers can be really unpleasant, considering that the responsibility also falls on the president himself. After becoming the head of the country, the former comedian did not have a strong political background or experience - only a lot of promises to undertake the necessary reforms. So distrust of institutions that have been plagued by the cancer of corruption in Ukraine for many years seemed normal.

If before his election as president, it was usual that the inflated SBU apparatus was often used to settle political scores, as a tool for fighting between politicians or businessmen, using their influence in intelligence, then the war revealed the most disgusting spots - some officials were really inclined to sell their country in 2022.

After what the Russian army did in Mariupol, it will be especially difficult to forgive such betrayals. But even a hint about betrayals and connections can harm even V. Zelensky himself.

For example, the dismissal of Ukrainian prosecutor I. Venediktova will undoubtedly raise a number of questions, considering that she is the one mentioned in the investigation against Oleh Tatarov, the deputy head of V. Zelensky's office. I. Venediktova twice blocked accusations against Oleh Tatarov, the deputy head of V. Zelensky's office. The prosecutors who investigated the case were changed several times, the case itself was transferred to the SBU and finally killed.

After all, curbing corruption and reforming the SBU was one of the conditions set by the West for closer integration -  Western military support for the Ukrainians became a priority. But recently, unpleasant questions have boomeranged back.

After all, one of V. Zelenski's closest associates is the head of his administration, Andrijus Jermakas, who was under suspicion. At that time, A. Yermakas, who was unofficially called "Vice President", and his supporters defended themselves against any connections and showed dissatisfaction that V. Zelensky's opponents called him "Man of Moscow". One of the arguments is that he repeated Russian propaganda when speaking to US diplomats.

But recently, A. Jermakas also received serious accusations. Republican member of the US Congress born in Ukraine, Victoria Spartz, appealed to the country's president, Joe Biden, with a request to provide data on the results of A. Jermak's reliability check. She says that the US is providing very solid aid to the struggling Ukraine, and therefore it is necessary to ensure that taxpayer funds do not go to the "wrong people".

So far, no evidence has been presented that A. Yermak can be associated with Russia, but the accusations made by V. Spartz are that it was A. Yermak who leaked to the Belarusian regime about the plan to catch Wagner mercenaries, disrupted peace negotiations with Russia, sabotaged the supply of weapons from West and even contributed to Kherson and Mariupol betrayals are very serious.

No matter how negatively the Ukrainians view such accusations, V. Zelensky himself, not reacting now, when it is difficult to do so, can be dangerous. On the one hand, his environment - it is not V. Zelensky himself, who has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression.

Creating an atmosphere of internal intrigues, divisions, suspicions and mistrust is also a kind of tactic and a familiar feature that the Kremlin's secret services could also resort to. In other words, it is customary in the East to call an unpleasant episode a provocation, intrigues of enemies, traps and not to pay attention to details.

So far, at least since February 24, the decision-making process of Ukraine's military and political leadership seems to be attracting only admiration in the world: the communication of both the president, his entourage and the army looks flawless from the outside, and the actions of Ukrainians are logical.

Therefore, causing confusion and internal friction seems to be a natural Russian plan to undermine one of the strongest links and paralyze decision-making: without reliable leadership intelligence, the shadow of credibility cast in the presidential administration team can cause a chain reaction across the entire front and Ukrainian society.

Moreover, the questions raised at the international level can activate both skeptics of Kyiv's ability to resist, as well as Kremlin supporters, or even make Ukrainian supporters hesitate: after all, the Ukrainians are given enormous political, diplomatic, military, financial and other support, and can they really be trusted, if even can't manage in the highest layers?

Such natural questions can and must have answers, but even if they are presented, it would be naive to think that the Kremlin will not have thought about it and will not try to exploit it through pressure or other means. Such methods of operation, when infiltrating one's own agents, using seemingly well-known useful idiots, naive people, as well as authoritative persons, their grievances, weaknesses, are part of the textbooks of the KGB or even older Kremlin security structures.

After all, Lithuania has also encountered traitors recruited by the Kremlin many times - starting with the former head of Lithuanian counter-intelligence, Liudas Gira, modest journalist Justas Paleckis (and his grandson Algirdas Paleckis, who was called the rising star of the social democrats), children's writers Kostas Kubilinskas, and ending with Lithuanian army officers - Juozas Markulis and Vincas Vitkauskas.  They betrayed the country and put information or people in the Kremlin's hands, some of which were condemned to death, and could have caused reasonable doubts among the allies of Lithuania's independence about what Moscow's influence really is.

Finally, stories of banal betrayals usually cause not so much immediate or immediate, but long-term damage, the consequences of which are felt in areas where it is not expected at all."

 

Zelenskyi fired a childhood friend who had faithfully protected Zelenskyi until now. The question now is when Zelensky will be hanged over the gates of his administration.


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