Chinese Exports Show Surprise Rebound --- Shipments to Russia more than doubled in March from year ago; demand in Asia grows

"HONG KONG -- China's exports bounced back sharply in March, a surprise that reflects greater demand in Asia and Europe as well as improved supply-chain conditions.

Another reason behind the result: Chinese exports to Russia more than doubled in March from a year earlier, highlighting warming economic ties between the two like-minded neighbors.

Outbound shipments from China climbed 14.8% in March from a year earlier, data from China's customs bureau showed Thursday, reversing the 6.8% decline recorded in the first two months of 2023 and ending a nearly half-year string of such drops stretching back to October.

The result blew away the 7% year-over-year contraction forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Imports into the world's second-largest economy fell 1.4% in March from a year earlier, better than the 5% drop predicted by polled economists and the 10.2% decline in the first two months of the year.

The better-than-expected outcome reflected a pickup in domestic activity after Beijing began abruptly dismantling Covid restrictions late last year that had hurt consumer sentiment and disrupted factory production.

Chinese exports to Russia more than doubled in March from a year earlier to a record $9 billion, according to calculations by the Journal based on the customs data, compared with a roughly 20% gain during the first two months of this year. Economists attributed the magnitude of the upswing to the low base of comparison from a year earlier in March 2022, just as Western countries began imposing sanctions on Russia in the wake of events in Ukraine.

For the full first quarter, goods shipments to Russia totaled $24 billion, up 48% from a year earlier -- though they still account for only 3% of China's total exports.

In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he expected total trade between the two countries to reach $200 billion by 2024. Trade between Russia and China grew more than 30% last year to $189 billion.

The resilience in China's export data bolstered some economists' forecasts of gross domestic product growth in the first quarter to more than 4%, up from 2.9% in the last quarter of 2022. In the longer term, economists and Chinese officials remain cautious about how much trade can power China's overall economy through the end of the year.

While inflation appears to be easing in the U.S., the Federal Reserve is likely to consider another interest-rate rise in May, a move that could curb consumer spending.

The World Trade Organization last week forecast a 1.7% gain in the global goods trade for this year, up from its previous forecast of 1% -- though that is still slower than last year's 2.7% growth, thanks in part to geopolitical tensions and monetary tightening.

China's exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations jumped 35% in March from a year earlier to $56 billion, accelerating from a 9% increase during the first two months of the year." [1]

Gabrielius Landsbergis did not achieve the goal of blocking China's economy. He blocked Lithuanian economy instead. Let us kick out of the job Gabrielius Landsbergis. 

China needs a lot of energy to meet all this demand. Next winter energy will not be so cheap for Western Europe anymore.

1. World News: Chinese Exports Show Surprise Rebound --- Shipments to Russia more than doubled in March from year ago; demand in Asia grows
Xie, Stella Yifan.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 14 Apr 2023: A.16.