Erdogan re-elected: Turkey decides against Europe

“Erdogan's re-election is also confirmation of a policy that does not lead to the EU. Western relations with Ankara will remain difficult.

Nevertheless, Sunday's result should not be interpreted as a manipulation of the will of the voters. The situation in the country should actually have favored the opposition. The economic misery, the consequences of the earthquake, the undermining of the rule of law - all of these were good prerequisites for beating Erdogan. Even a rather colorless opponent like Kilicdaroglu had a realistic chance, as the polls before the election showed. And after all, he was able to force Erdogan into a second ballot.

Election campaign shows where Turkey will be in 2023

This alone shows that Turkey, despite all its deficits, is not a dictatorship in which only sham votes take place. The Turks had a choice on Sunday between the authoritarian Islamic incumbent and a Kemalist social democratic challenger.

The fact that they finally chose Erdogan says something about the mood in the country, even if his lead wasn't huge. As was already observed in the parliamentary elections, there is a majority in Turkey for the president's social model: a mixture of piety, national pride, state-controlled modernization and a self-confident appearance abroad. The fact that Kilicdaroglu himself banged on the nationalist drum in the final meters of the election campaign shows where Turkey will be in 2023.

Istanbul is not Turkey

This should also be taken into account in the West, where in the past there has been a tendency to confuse the urban elites in Istanbul with the countryside. Turkey will remain a difficult partner under Erdogan, but you will have to continue to pull yourself together. There are areas where it is worth putting pressure on the president or even making concessions. These include Sweden's NATO accession and the refugee issue.

It becomes more difficult when it comes to human and minority rights. With a policy of pointing fingers, Erdogan will continue play the cards. In the worst case, you harm yourself, as the former moral superpower Sweden had to learn last year. 

Turkey is not the only country where the costs of a values-led foreign policy are rising. This is a consequence of the West's (relative) loss of power, which activism cannot undo.

The issue of EU accession has also been settled for the time being. Even if Kilicdaroglu had won, it would not have been a sure-fire success. But if the runoff election was really a referendum on Erdogan, then Turkey also decided against Europe on Sunday. The country looks east, not west.”

Dangling European goodies before other countries  does not lead to Color revolutions anymore? We have to invent some other means to push people into desired by us direction. What could that be?