"An old capital stock and hardly any innovations are reducing the growth potential of the German economy to an all-time low. AI can help, alleviating the shortage of skilled workers.
The German economy is stuttering. The Economic Advisory Council expects growth of just 0.7 percent for 2024. However, the medium and long-term prospects are particularly worrying. As our projections show, if the current dynamics continue, the production and thus growth potential will only grow by an average of 0.4 percent annually until 2028. This would be a historic low.
Significant obstacles to growth in the coming years are - in addition to low productivity growth, the outdated capital stock and the small number of young and innovative companies - demographic change and thus the shortage of skilled workers. As a result, work remains unfinished and growth falls by the wayside.
The use of artificial intelligence is an anchor of hope for solving the problem of skilled workers and stimulating productivity growth again. A McKinsey study puts the predicted contribution of generative AI to value creation at up to $4.4 trillion annually across 63 use cases. It is clear that the impact on individual industries, companies and employees will vary greatly, depending on how exposed a company or activity will be to AI innovations.
Studies in the United States report that almost every worker will be at least partially affected. Almost a fifth of employees could use generative AI in at least half of their jobs in the future. In particular, professions in financial services, information technology and consulting will be automated by AI, while legal services and educational professions will be particularly affected by generative AI such as ChatGPT. These are professions in which we lack skilled workers in relevant quantities.
AI can substitute or complement activities. It makes sense that structured, standardized consultations can be carried out by well-trained AI conversation assistants. The freed-up human advisory capacity could be used for more complex services or in more creative areas. Studies show that with the support of conversation assistants, consultants also become faster and better at qualitative tasks. The number of customer service issues resolved per hour increased by 14 percent in an experiment conducted in collaboration with a software company in the United States.
On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine students being taught by Siri in the classroom. However, conversation assistants are certainly suitable for self-study as well as individual learning assistance and in this respect act as a substitute for homework support or the textbook. This also frees up resources that can fill gaps elsewhere.
The time savings in particular through the use of large language models such as GPT-4 could at least cushion the shortage of skilled workers in certain areas. Studies in the United States predict that around 15 percent of all work tasks can be completed significantly faster while maintaining the same quality. If you include software that uses such models as components, the proportion of work tasks affected increases to more than 50 percent.
In an experiment conducted by a research team at MIT with professional software developers, those who were allowed to use Github Copilot as AI support were 55 percent more productive than the comparison group. Programmers with little experience particularly benefited. Other studies also find evidence that the AI model makes the tacit knowledge of more capable employees accessible and helps newer employees gain experience more quickly.
The study situation is not fully clear due to the fact that developments are often still recent. In order to understand and leverage the potential of (generative) AI, further research and efforts from companies are required. So far, the use of AI has been almost exclusively limited to large companies, while many small and medium-sized companies still do without it. Government investments in the digitalization of public administration and in education are also necessary. There is a lot of catching up to do in both. There is enormous potential for the use of generative AI, especially in administration, due to the many standardized, language-based and mappable processes, while at the same time the shortage of skilled workers is increasing. According to McKinsey, a third of public sector workers will be eliminated by 2030.
This makes it all the more urgent to use existing capacities more efficiently - which closes the circle on the use of artificial intelligence. At the same time, existing employees must be empowered and supported through appropriate training. The foundation for future employees is laid at schools and universities. Here, too, the gaps were recently soberly revealed by findings regarding inadequate computer science teaching here. The potential is great, but there is still a lot to do to really utilize it." [1]
1. KI eröffnet gute Chancen, den Fachkräftemangel zu lindern. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Nov 14, 2023. Von Monika Schnitzer
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą