Stupid politicians force us to pay Vietnamese Communists instead of paying the Chinese directly:
"DURING THE covid-19 pandemic, sudden shortages taught businesses and policymakers a costly lesson. Many hoped that shorter, more diversified supply chains would insulate them against the next shock. Events in Ukraine and simmering tensions over the status of Taiwan have given further urgency to efforts to bring manufacturing closer to home. Global supply chains have indeed shifted. But a closer look suggests it has not been in the way that governments had hoped.
Analysis by the Bank for International Settlements shows supply chains are growing longer and more complicated, while their origins remain mostly unchanged.
The effect is especially noticeable in supply chains facing pressure to decouple, like those linking American customers to Chinese suppliers. In 2021 American and Chinese firms were closer together in the supply chain than the global average (as measured by the number of steps between American customers and Chinese suppliers). They will end 2023 farther apart than they were. And, though chains have lengthened globally, the distance between American and Chinese firms has grown by more than the rest.
As security fears, trade tariffs and covid lockdowns made Chinese suppliers less attractive, many American firms sought to diversify their supply routes. But rather than eliminate China altogether, changes to supply chains have seen traders in Asia increasingly sit between American and Chinese firms.
Take the IT sector. American firms shrank as a share of China's overall customer base by ten percentage points over the past two years. But suppliers in China did not ultimately stop selling to American firms. Instead, companies in Asia—especially in India and Vietnam—are now buying more from China (the share of China's customers in Asia has increased by 13.5 percentage points) and are selling more to America (the share of America's suppliers in Asia has increased by around five percentage points).
Businesses with supply chains that pass through many hands are often unaware of the real origin of their products. So these lengthening chains may be concealing the fact that supplies, for the most part, still originate in China.
Attempts at true diversification have shown no progress. Firms are more dependent on a few key suppliers than before: the average number of customers and suppliers for firms globally have both slightly decreased. That suggests the "China Plus One" strategy, in which firms create a contingency supply route that excludes China, is more talk than action. Despite the rhetoric heard in C-suites and government halls, America's new supply chains still lead back to the same risky trading partner.” [1]
· · · 1. "Don't be fooled by America's 'new' supply chains." The Economist, 14 Nov. 2023, p. NA.
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