Ukraine Conflict Slips Toward Stalemate.

"Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade was equipped with Western armored vehicles and trained for a lightning summer counteroffensive that was supposed to tip the conflict firmly in Kyiv's favor.

These days, after advancing only a few miles over several months in the south, the brigade is fighting to fend off a Russian attack on a small industrial city in eastern Ukraine.

"It's tough. Their advantage is in the quantity of people," one soldier in the brigade said. "They are coming nonstop."

The brigade's shift from offense to defense reflects a move to a new phase in the conflict as Ukraine's top commanders acknowledge that the counteroffensive didn't achieve the desired progress. Ukraine's top military officer, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, described the conflict as a stalemate in an interview with the Economist, saying there would most likely be no significant breakthrough.

Russian officials have characterized the shift as a sign Moscow is gaining the upper hand and that its bet on the long game is paying off. Russian President Vladimir Putin has geared his country's economy to conflict and has more than 400,000 men deployed in Ukraine, Ukrainian officials said, while Kyiv depends on Western military and financial support, which is facing an uncertain future.

A growing number of Ukraine's backers in Europe and the U.S. said Kyiv likely would be in a stronger position today if the Biden administration had more quickly delivered valuable equipment such as tanks, long-range rockets and jet fighters. Protracted debates about the armaments, which have been provided or are being prepared for delivery to Ukraine, meant Kyiv lost valuable time early this year when it could have pressed gains achieved against Russia late last year.

"There is no silver bullet that will change the stalemate in the short run," said Douglas Lute, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and former ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. "Our incremental approach to providing military assistance has assured that," he said of the impasse.

Administration officials say they are giving Ukraine weapons at an appropriate pace and in line with what can be offered.

Russia now controls around one-fifth of Ukraine's territory and is seeking to advance in the northeast and east. Ukraine is still pressing in the south, where it had hoped to reach the Sea of Azov coast and split the Russian forces in two. But exhaustion on both sides and the strength of defenses make large changes unlikely this winter.

"It's a trench deadlock," said a senior Ukrainian security official. "A general offensive is impossible for either side. Neither side can break through."

For now, Russia is concentrating on smaller cities such as Kupyansk in the northeast and Avdiivka in the east. In the offensive on Avdiivka, a small industrial city near the regional capital of Donetsk,  Russian forces have made small gains in their efforts to surround the city, including seizing a railway line on the northwestern outskirts.

The Ukrainians are struggling. The soldier in the 47th said they were low on ammunition and manpower, meaning the crews of armored vehicles and drone pilots were sometimes deployed to front-line positions.

A senior NATO official said Russia likely lacks resources to mount a significant offensive this year and Ukrainian troops may hold an advantage fighting in winter snow because they have shown greater mobility. "The Russians have shown limited ability to fight off-road and on foot."

The next phase of the conflict looks increasingly fraught for Ukraine. After fending off Russia's assault on Kyiv early last year, Ukrainian forces rolled back Russian troops in the northeast and south of the country, retaking half the territory that Moscow had in the early weeks.

But despite the West's having trained and equipped tens of thousands of troops for the counteroffensive, they were unable this year to achieve Ukraine's goal of breaking through Russian lines and reaching the Azov coast.

While both sides say they want peace, talks are unlikely while Russia retains its initial goal of controlling Ukraine, and Ukraine wants to retake the rest of its territory. Ukrainian officials acknowledge that a long conflict likely favors Russia, which has shifted its economy to a conflict footing and can call on a population more than three times the size of its neighbor's." [1]

1. World News: Ukraine Conflict Slips Toward Stalemate. Marson, James; Michaels, Daniel.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 13 Nov 2023: A.9.