The West lost Ukraine and credibility.
"KYIV, Ukraine -- The commander of Ukraine's armed forces says the conflict with Russia is at risk of becoming a stalemate and eventual defeat, and Kyiv would need a major upgrade in weapons and technological capabilities to regain the initiative.
In an interview and essay for the Economist, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, Ukraine's top military commander, said the conflict was entering a new phase of "static and attritional fighting, as in the First World War."
"This will benefit Russia," he wrote, "allowing it to rebuild its military power, eventually threatening Ukraine's armed forces and the state itself."
The essay is a sobering assessment of the state of the conflict, acknowledging many of the challenges for Ukraine that military analysts have been noting for months.
Zaluzhniy said Ukraine's counteroffensive -- which began in June, bolstered by hundreds of armored vehicles from the West -- is unlikely to achieve a major breakthrough, and has come at a high cost to Kyiv's forces.
This year, both sides have struggled to seize new territory.
Troops spent months building up defensive lines last winter, while the proliferation of surveillance drones has dramatically reduced the effectiveness of tanks and other armored vehicles, turning them into easy targets.
Early this year, it took Moscow some time to seize the eastern city of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has advanced barely a dozen miles in five months. Now, the Russians are again trying to take the initiative, with an assault on the small eastern city of Avdiivka. So far, they have advanced.
To break out of this stalemate, Zaluzhniy wrote, Ukraine would need a big upgrade in its capabilities on several fronts, including air power, mine clearance, long-range missiles and electronic-warfare systems that can jam drones and send GPS-guided weapons off course.
These upgrades, he said, largely depend on the West.
The supply of weapons to Ukraine has become a contentious question in the West. In Washington, more Republicans are openly opposing further aid for Kyiv, and funds that have been used to bolster Ukraine are running low.
The U.S. -- Ukraine's primary source of military aid -- also is sending military supplies to Israel, sparking fears of shortages of weapons in the West.
Zaluzhniy acknowledged Russia's demographic and economic advantage. With a population three times the size of Ukraine's before the conflict began, Moscow benefits from a conflict of attrition. Russia also is better able than Ukraine to produce weapons on its own territory." [1]
1. World News: Ukraine Military Chief Calls Conflict 'Static'. Lovett, Ian. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Nov 2023: A.18.
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