"Donald Trump may be regularly depicted as an impetuous toddler in chief, but he appears to possess genuine convictions about international relations. Ever since he gave an interview to Playboy magazine in 1990 decrying Mikhail Gorbachev for failing to hold the Soviet empire together (“not a firm enough hand”) and praising the Chinese Communist leadership for crushing the student uprising at Tiananmen Square (“they were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength”), Mr. Trump has extolled authoritarian leaders as possessing the right stuff, while he has dismissed democratic ones as weak and feckless.
This impulse is not a new phenomenon for the United States; it dates back to World War I and World War II, when leading American conservatives praised foreign autocrats such as Kaiser Wilhelm II, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and Francisco Franco as their ideological comrades in arms. Until now, however, no modern president has lauded autocracy as a model for America.
During his four years in office, Mr. Trump blustered about alliances and praised foreign dictators but never actually upended America’s foreign policy. That could change in a second Trump administration. The former president is poised to adopt a radical program centered on constructive engagement with foreign strongmen and hostility toward democratic allies; it would include abandoning NATO. It would convert America from a dominant economic and military power into what Mr. Trump purports to abhor — a global loser.
To understand why Mr. Trump’s approach might well differ from the one he took in his initial term, it’s helpful to look at the foreign policy advisers who are being talked about as potential members of a new Trump administration. They can be divided into two camps, which might be called Restorationists and Revisionists.
Restorationists are establishment Republicans such as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the former national security adviser Robert C. O’Brien who want to go back in time — specifically, to Ronald Reagan’s foreign policy hawkishness and staunch internationalism, which they believe led straight to the fall of the Berlin Wall and victory in the Cold War. During the Trump presidency, they worked overtime to maneuver Mr. Trump in this direction, pushing him to adopt tough stances toward Iran, Russia and China, while maintaining ties to traditional allies in Asia and Europe.
Now, in a variety of interviews, speeches and books, they have been sketching out their vision for a second Trump term — one that would shore up America’s alliances, pursue peace through strength and confront Iran, Russia and China — while camouflaging their crusading Reaganite views in a thin veneer of Trumpian nationalism.
Revisionists, by contrast, are “America First” advocates who espouse a much harder-edged approach and, more often than not, want to go it alone.
Organizations such as the Heritage Foundation and the America First Policy Institute, the two main think tanks vying to staff the next Trump administration, have been vetting potential appointees to establish a government in waiting. As Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general and former Trump national security official, observed in his 2021 memoir, “War by Other Means,” “Our problem was that we did not always know who our enemies were; in some cases, they were our own political appointees.” Mr. Trump himself has loudly complained about many of the advisers he appointed, such as John Bolton.
The conservative activists around him wish to install purists who will preach America First precepts, not least the dogma that America’s security isn’t tied to Europe’s because, as Mr. Trump recently put it, “an ocean” separates the territories.
The Revisionists don’t place as much value on our membership in NATO and are generally ardent proponents of a longstanding dream on the right of a Fortress America that can strike unilaterally whenever and wherever it pleases, unencumbered by nettlesome international alliances and organizations.
Take Mr. Trump’s former ambassador to Germany and acting national intelligence director, Richard Grenell. He has opposed Sweden and Finland’s joining NATO while supporting far-right populists in Serbia, Guatemala and elsewhere. Then there is Russ Vought. A former Trump budget director who might serve as the White House chief of staff, Mr. Vought has decried American aid to Ukraine and stated that he would reassess “the old idea of NATO’s collective defense.”
Mr. Kellogg, who might serve as defense secretary under Mr. Trump, is not a staunch opponent of sending aid to Ukraine, but even he has suggested that we should be prepared to use the threat of cutting it off to push the country into peace talks with Moscow — a recipe for pre-emptive surrender.
Former Trump Defense Department official Elbridge Colby, who is widely seen as a top contender to become national security adviser if Mr. Trump wins re-election, typifies the radicalism of the Revisionist camp. Mr. Colby has insisted that confronting China requires slashing support to Ukraine, and he recently lambasted Britain’s foreign secretary, David Cameron, for “lecturing” Republican politicians about the imperative to assist Kyiv, deeming it “foreign interference.”
Mr. Trump’s own hostility to sending aid to Ukraine suggests that he would most likely be receptive to a deal with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, allowing him to operate freely in Central and Eastern Europe — in the name of stability and peace. By the same token, for all his bluff and bombast about the China threat, Mr. Trump, unlike President Biden, has never indicated that he would stand by Taiwan were China to invade.
He appears to view American alliances with South Korea and Japan with skepticism, if not outright hostility. Less than a year after the Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, met with Mr. Biden in April to announce new security agreements, Mr. Trump could simply decide that he has no intention of honoring America’s commitments abroad.
Rupturing America’s alliances would lead to arms races and nuclear proliferation in Asia and Europe. Nationalists like Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, and Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vucic, who is known as a “little Putin,” would be emboldened to strengthen their ties with the Kremlin and undermine European security.
And the domestic consequences could be severe. Many of Mr. Trump’s economic advisers, including the former trade chief Robert Lighthizer (a leading candidate to be the Treasury secretary under Mr. Trump), are apparently intent on pursuing the Great Depression redux — waging trade wars with Europe and Asia. They’re floating a host of other risky measures, including curbing the independence of the Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar to try to increase exports, and imposing high tariffs on goods from China and Europe.
While Mr. Biden’s new tariffs on China aggressively target the solar industry and electric cars, Mr. Trump wants to decouple the world’s two largest economies from each other. These measures would weaken the confidence of foreign investors and fuel higher inflation.
With Ukraine events, China threatening its neighbors and the Middle East aflame, warnings of a new world war already abound. Add in Mr. Trump’s strongman predilections — purging the State Department, the C.I.A. and the F.B.I. as redoubts of the deep state, cozying up to Mr. Putin, threatening China and reportedly sending assassination squads into Mexico to target drug kingpins — and the odds of a calamity rise.
Would the damage be irreversible? Chancellor Otto von Bismarck of Germany supposedly remarked that “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America.” But Mr. Trump’s return might test even the Almighty’s patience.
Jacob Heilbrunn (@JacobHeilbrunn) is the editor of The National Interest, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the author, most recently, of “America Last.”” [1]
1. The Dangers of Donald Trump’s America First Foreign Policy: Guest Essay. Heilbrunn, Jacob. New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. May 21, 2024.
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