This prediction is based on forecasts prepared by
the United Nations.
"Decreasing
birth rate is one of the biggest challenges in the world, it is especially
evident in countries with higher incomes. Lithuania is no exception. Although
the demographic crisis raises a number of questions, including how to maintain
pension or health care systems when the working-age population is sharply
decreasing, there is no one-size-fits-all answer.
On the one hand, the
age of people is increasing, more and more children are surviving (again, this
mainly affects the population of developed countries), on the other hand, the
desire to have children is decreasing.
According to
Financial Times (FT) columnist Martin Wolf, the 20th century the participation
of women in the economy has increased significantly, and more female representatives
of highly qualified professions have appeared. This increased the
"opportunity costs" of raising children, especially for mothers who
are most attached to motherhood. Therefore, she has children later or not at
all.
A review in Fertility
Economics: A New Era, published in 2022 published by the National Bureau of
Economic Research, the authors said that where public child care is more
generous, women are encouraged to combine careers with childbearing.
3 times less children are born in
Lithuania now than at the beginning of independence: in 1990 56,900
babies were born, last year 20,008 children.
In our country,
15,000-20,000 fewer children are born every year than our population dies, and
due to natural change alone, the population of Lithuania has already decreased
by 153,400 in the last 10 years.
Several important
factors determining the declining birth rate are distinguished. The first is
that the number of women able to give birth has significantly decreased. Part
of the women emigrated, but the following paradox is noticeable: the birth rate
began to decrease when the economic and social life in Lithuania began to
improve rapidly. Wages rose every year, the differences between the labor
income of our country and other European countries decreased significantly,
state support for the family increased: child benefits began to be paid, some
municipalities partially compensated the fee for private kindergartens, etc.
Another factor is a
sense of insecurity, which has been exacerbated in recent years not only by
nearby conflict or reports of the effects of climate change, but also by social
challenges such as inflationary living costs and unaffordable housing. The
latter is not only more expensive by tens of percent - considerable loan
interest also poses challenges.
Since a quarter of
parents raising children in Lithuania are single, a one-person household faces
considerable financial challenges, and if a child is raised by a single mother,
she has to combine work and raising children.
On the other hand,
although relatively long maternity leave is granted in Lithuania, women avoid
taking time off from work for a longer period of time. In addition, there is a
trend towards an increase in the number of families who do not want to have
offspring at all.
The extremely low
birth rate will undoubtedly present enormous challenges. One of them is how to
maintain pension or health care systems when the working-age population is
shrinking. One of the answers is the extension of the working age. Another
option is immigration.
However, immigration to offset the effects of declining
birth rates would have to be quite large, which is hardly possible both
politically and practically.
According to the FT,
the focus of countries' policies should be on helping people have the children
they want in a way that suits their own plans. In today's world, it is very
important to help parents, especially women, to combine career and children.
According to
scientists, parents will not start planning family expansion soon: we can only
talk about population growth in Lithuania in 30 years.
In fact, now hardly
anyone can give an exact answer to the question of when the number of children
will start to increase in Lithuania, especially since the change in birth rate
trends is not yet a priority of our country's political agenda. Perhaps the
desire of men and women to have more children could be encouraged by the
long-term state demographic and family policy: affordable housing, state
kindergartens and schools that guarantee quality education and training,
flexible working conditions.
On the other hand,
social and economic incentives alone are not enough – despite relatively
generous social maternity benefits, birth rates are not improving. It is not
increased by cultural or religious arguments - so that the parties calling
themselves Christian families etc. sing their melodies in vain.
Forecasts prepared by
the United Nations predict that in 2050 only 2.2 million inhabitants will
remain in Lithuania, and the population of working age will decrease by even
half a million.
It is obvious that,
with the natural decrease in the number of the population (and the number of
employees), more attention will have to be paid to, among other things, higher
production efficiency and robotization, etc."
A few comments:
"cousin42069
Getting a place in a public kindergarten is problematic. If
not received - family expenses increase from 500e per month. Lower-income
partners simply do not return to work. In this way, the state that has lost the
taxes it pays also loses.
2 children? We are
already talking about 1k above. In other words, in order to have 2 children in
a city where it is problematic to get a kindergarten, you need to pay the
entire average salary of a Lithuanian.
he...
There was a study
somewhere that financial support does not lead to higher birth rates. That's
probably true, but doesn't lower financial support lead to lower birth rates?
Statistical couple
from Vilnius - ~30 years old, works in jars, earns ~2 kEUR cash, after
taking a 2k apartment with a 200kEUR loan for 30 years, leases 2 cars for some
1-1.5kEUR. Years go by, they start thinking about a child: family expenses
increase, income decreases, there will be no kindergarten, that's at least +500
EUR. Since the couple are not big altruists, they decide that a hedonistic life
is more fun.
We can send them far
and wide, but that is the majority of young people. Today, the state does not
create conditions that do not scare children. Simple as that.
pott
Say what you want,
but having children is too expensive.
Whoever mentions here
500 euros for kindergartens and schools, there are no such prices, at least in
Vilnius.
Permit for one child
is from 650 euros, for two children, in order to be able to work, it is 1300
euros, so here if you can afford two children, there is nothing to talk about
more.
We concentrate on
such absurd problems as the rights of blacks, the rights of the alphabet and
similar nonsense, where we actually forget that the nation is dying because no
one wants to give birth to children anymore, and they don't want to, because in
most cases they can't keep them. Without the birthrate of our own country's
citizens, the future is doomed. Do you think immigration will save you? No way,
because they are not really trying to work here, but to conquer with their
quantity and turn the countries into holes from which they are coming. It is
very sad that the priorities are out of balance...
reader__
When reading the
comments, one can see that the commenters take the problem much more seriously
than VŽ, which in general, gives the impression that if it were not for FT,
they would not even notice that there is a problem here. And the problem is
only pensions and employees.
That the nation is
forgetting that we are rapidly moving towards the 19th century, towards the
times before Kudirka, it is clear that FT did not write this, and VŽ themselves
did not understand in any way.
And it is not true
that financial incentives do not help anything. They just don't exist. There
must be a "solidarity" tax for those who do not have children, and
benefits or zero income tax for those who have more than 3-4 children. What, afraid to suggest such a thing?
A traveller
The fact that modern
women do not want to give birth, that large families are no longer fashionable, are considered by everyone like a white crows. Second, liberals and other
libertarians have worked hard to destroy the institution of the family. Divorce
now - it's easier than buying beer after 8 p.m., a woman's application is enough,
even without a reason, - that's it, characters don't match - everyone knows,
children are left without a father, they automatically hook up alimony. So many
people fled from LT not only and not so much because of poverty, but because of
the crooked legal system.
VŽ commentator
Nothing good is here in
"editorial opinion" translated from an FT article. With the obligatory
prayer on climate change and women's rights.
It's simple: the more
individualism (in other words, selfishness) and women trying to be men, the
worse off the nation is. During the debate, Šimonytė explained that it would
introduce mandatory quotas for the number of women in government. because it is
still small. The same way as in the story about the goldfish. Think about that during
the election."
"3 times less children are born in
Lithuania now than at the beginning of independence." Declaring independence leads to the Lithuanians dying out. Do we know how to govern Lithuania independently?
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