Macron's Gamble to Stop Le Pen Risks Ushering Her In

"PARIS -- President Emmanuel Macron always has aspired to become one of the great men of history, saving Europe from the fires of populism and setting its economy on course to compete with the U.S. and China.

The question now looming over Macron is whether he will go down as the man who ushered Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Rally party to the threshold of power.

Macron's decision to call snap elections broadsided France and shocked the world. It was also vintage Macron: bold, risky and timed to catch his opponents off guard. Macron was operating under the assumption that he and his candidates for the National Assembly would benefit from the element of surprise, according to his aides. Leftist parties would have no time to form alliances crucial for making it past the first round of voting on June 30. That, in turn, would compel many of their voters to rally behind Macron's pro-business party in the July 7 runoff, as they had in Macron's previous showdowns with Le Pen.

Those assumptions are now unraveling. Left-leaning parties have managed to quickly stitch together a coalition to go toe-to-toe with Macron's and Le Pen's forces. Macron's own party, meanwhile, is in disarray, with shellshocked lawmakers struggling to rally around a leader who they say acted unilaterally, without consulting them, much as he has since taking office in 2017.

Polls this week show Le Pen's forces qualifying for runoffs and finishing with up to 270 seats, just shy of a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly and about three times the number Le Pen won in 2022. National Rally would become the biggest party in the chamber, and Le Pen would have a strong argument for picking the next prime minister.

On Wednesday, Macron bristled when a reporter asked what he thought of the idea of becoming the first president in France's post-World War II history to hand the government over to the far right.

"Everyone sees the rising water of the extreme right," Macron said. The president then acknowledged a truth that haunts the political establishment: In 2027, Macron will finish the second of his two consecutive terms, the legal limit, leaving Le Pen to run for the presidency in a field bereft of major competitors.

Macron said he was unwilling to sit idle until then. Voters, in handing National Rally an overwhelming victory in Sunday's European elections, were protesting in anger, Macron said. In calling national elections with much bigger stakes, he said he was providing voters with a means of "clarification."

"We're tearing down the hypocrisy and the misunderstandings," he said

Macron, in turning the snap elections into a referendum on Le Pen, risks walking in the footsteps of David Cameron, who as British prime minister called a 2016 referendum on Brexit, expecting the public to vote it down. "David Cameron bet the house and lost . . . Macron is doing the same," said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe for the Eurasia Group consulting firm.

Unlike Cameron, Macron gave his forces little time to prepare. Lawmakers were given no notice before he dissolved the National Assembly in a TV address Sunday, triggering the vote.

For years, Macron has used his authority under the constitution to override Parliament. Last year he raised the legal age of retirement without parliamentary approval. Macron's tendency to run roughshod over Parliament, however, didn't prepare lawmakers for his latest maneuver. "I was really depressed on Sunday," said Patrick Vignal, who was until then a Renaissance lawmaker. "It was a shock."

Les Republicains, the mainstream conservative party, also has been reeling. On Tuesday, the party's president, Eric Ciotti, announced a surprise alliance with National Rally. Les Republicains's executive committee responded by voting to oust him as president, saying he betrayed the party. Ciotti himself had on numerous occasions vowed to never back Le Pen. His departure opens the door for other Les Republicains members to follow him toward National Rally.

Markets also have been rattled. French stocks plunged the morning after Macron's announcement, amid fear that France was careening toward a hung Parliament. That would make it hard for Macron to rein in the government's ballooning deficit.

In a sign of how dire the political map has become, aides to Macron said he is open to withdrawing his party's candidates from districts where conservative, socialist or the Green Party candidates have a better chance of beating National Rally. "We are going to be sandwiched between the left and the far-right," a Renaissance lawmakers said. "It's going to blow up in our faces."

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Prime Minister's Job Is in Jeopardy

Perhaps the biggest casualty of French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap election is his own prime minister and longtime protege. At 35 years old, Gabriel Attal was considered one of the brightest lights of Macron's party. When the president promoted him to prime minister in January, many lawmakers believed he was being positioned as a possible successor.

But Attal only found out about Macron's plans on Sunday, hours before he dissolved the National Assembly, officials said, adding that he was opposed to the move. On Tuesday morning, Attal huddled with his defenestrated lawmakers and delivered a pep talk meant to spur their re-election campaigns. But the lawmakers said they were angry and demoralized.

Meanwhile, Le Pen's protege, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has been doing victory laps since leading National Rally to triumph in Sunday's European elections. Party officials say he is the choice to replace Attal as prime minister." [1]

1. World News: Macron's Gamble to Stop Le Pen Risks Ushering Her In. Meichtry, Stacy;
Bisserbe, Noemie.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 14 June 2024: A.16.