U.S.'s Climate Plan Falters Amid Hurdles and Resistance

"Climate optimism is fading. Higher costs, pushback from businesses and consumers, and the slow rollout of technology are delaying the transition from fossil fuels.

Renewable energy is growing faster than expected. But surging demand for power is sucking up much of that additional capacity and forcing utilities to burn fossil fuels, including coal, for longer than expected.

With greenhouse-gas emissions continuing at record levels, scientists expect floods and heat waves to get worse. This year is on track to be the hottest on record.

"The pace of our response is obviously totally insufficient," said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich. On this trajectory, "it will become increasingly impossible to face the changing climate we are going to experience," she said.

The energy transition gained momentum in recent years as prices for renewable energy tumbled. Trillions of dollars in government and private investment flowed into technologies to address greenhouse-gas emissions. Industries such as autos embraced major shifts in their businesses, and companies started to count and disclose their emissions.

That momentum stalled recently when costs soared, consumers balked and businesses fought against new regulations. Politicians stepped back from ambitious climate goals or campaigned against them. A victory by GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump in November's election could make those goals even harder to reach. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrats' presidential nominee, is expected to continue President Biden's climate policies if she wins.

"We have this really difficult moment," said Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Kleinman Center for Energy Policy. "The election is a giant cliff."

The bumps aren't surprising. The energy transition was always going to be a huge, complicated and expensive effort. It has never moved fast enough to minimize the damage of climate change. 

But positive momentum, spurred in part by the 2022 U.S. climate law, created hope that the shift could accelerate.

This week, businesses, climate activists and government officials are converging on New York for the United Nations General Assembly and related climate events dubbed "Climate Week NYC."

Overshadowing the gathering is a surge in electricity demand. The U.S. power sector had been a bright spot. Emissions have declined as natural gas and renewables supplanted coal. But new data centers and factories are halting progress. A shift to electric vehicles and appliances could lead to a bigger crunch.

"We really are going to need just about every resource that's available if demand growth continues at a rapid pace," said Paul Segal, chief executive of LS Power, which operates natural-gas and renewable projects across the country. Research firm Rhodium Group expects U.S. electricity demand to rise 24% to 29% by 2035, nearly twice the rate it projected a year ago.

LS revived the expansion of a gas plant in Ohio after halting it five years ago when power demand was muted and state subsidies unfavorable. It recently raised nearly $4 billion for its natural-gas portfolio.

New York state's aggressive goal of getting 70% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 has been upended by permit delays, rising costs and the cancellation of several early offshore-wind projects.

"The goals are still worthy, but we have to think about the collateral damage of all of our major decisions," New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, said at a recent event.

More than 40% of the world's electricity came from low-carbon sources in 2023, with wind and solar comprising more than 90% of new capacity, according to BloombergNEF. Six years ago, electric vehicles made up 2% of new car sales globally. About 1 in 5 new cars is now electric.

But the gains are uneven. China accounted for more than one-third of all wind and solar output last year and is by far the largest EV market. The spread of EVs has slowed in the U.S. and Europe.

In some sectors, things have gotten worse. Investment in improving the efficiency of buildings -- a major driver of emissions -- fell last year, the International Energy Agency says.

Spending decisions happening now can lock in emissions for decades.

Multibillion-dollar liquefied-natural-gas terminals being built in Texas and Louisiana could serve a projected demand boom in places such as Southeast Asia.

Wind and solar are growing rapidly in that region but are limited by the grid and other factors, said Nitin Apte, CEO of Vena Energy, a renewables developer. "It's like we're running really, really hard, and we're still running in place," Apte said.

Sticking with fossil fuels risks worsening countries' vulnerability to climate change. The Philippines -- which plans to use more gas and renewables -- is frequently hit by floods and cyclones and suffers the most weather-related losses of any country as a share of gross domestic product, according to reinsurance firm Swiss Re.

A truism about climate policy is that many people and businesses are unwilling to make real sacrifices to address the problem. The Biden administration's climate law focused on carrots, not sticks, for that reason. (And the Biden administration distributed those carrots to people who can only gnaw on them, but cannot do anything good in business - to their favored companies and unions. (K.))

The backlash has been harsh in the U.S. and Europe when policies are deemed too aggressive.

In Washington state, a vote to repeal a program that since 2023 has required many companies to buy emissions permits is on the ballot in November. The measure is being pushed by a hedge fund executive who has said the program raises gas prices. The state said it would lose $3.8 billion if the repeal passes.

"We're playing defense on some of the biggest wins that we've ever had," said green-transportation campaigner Kirk Hovenkotter.

Climate policy also has gotten wrapped up in trade politics. China controls swaths of the green-energy and materials supply chains. 

The U.S. showed it is willing to sacrifice climate action to build its own supply chains when the Biden administration put a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs.

A Trump victory in November would likely squeeze federal climate spending, threatening Biden's agenda. The package of tax credits and other funding announced in 2022's Inflation Reduction Act was a landmark, but some tax-credit rules still aren't completed and money is flowing slower than expected.

Faced with farmers blocking roads and spraying manure, the European Union dropped this year a proposed agricultural-emissions target from its new climate goal and relaxed green regulations in farming subsidies.

Pro-environment parties that helped pass various climate laws suffered losses in recent EU elections.

Many companies are weakening their climate plans. Sustainability fell down CEOs' list of concerns in 2023, behind issues including inflation and artificial intelligence, according to an analysis of survey data by consulting firm Bain.

Ford Motor and General Motors are among the automakers dialing back their plans for new electric models amid flagging demand. Volvo Car recently abandoned a target to sell only fully electric cars by the end of the decade.

Mining giant Glencore was under pressure from shareholders to sell its coal business. They reversed course and encouraged the company to keep the unit, citing waning momentum in sustainable investing.

New green technologies are the best hope for significant progress in reducing emissions, experts said, and cash is pouring into promising startups.

Recent investments include $645 million for Twelve, which makes low-carbon aviation fuel, and a $1.56 billion government loan commitment to an ammonia producer that plans to capture its carbon emissions. 

Ammonia is a key ingredient in fertilizer and doesn't emit carbon when burned as fuel.

Some startups are facing surging costs. Even when things go smoothly, the pressure is on to make a dent in emissions.

Form Energy, a maker of iron-based batteries that can discharge electricity for days -- a boon for intermittent renewables -- recently opened a factory in West Virginia. It has orders from utilities and plans to expand its manufacturing capacity in the next few years.

"Even that -- which is a massively successful business, assuming we get there -- is a tiny drop in the bucket," Form CEO Mateo Jaramillo said."

Biden-Harris administration is lying twice in an attempt to kill competitors. Lying about climate goals, and using big green subsidies  Biden-Harris administration killed Western European industry.  Lying about security and support for workers Biden-Harris administration neglected climate goals and tried to kill China's industry. Global South didn't  stop buying Chinese products so this move didn't work.

Trump will not lie here. If Americans don't care about climate, he is saying exactly that.

1.  U.S.'s Climate Plan Falters Amid Hurdles and Resistance. Ballard, Ed; Ramkumar, Amrith.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 Sep 2024: A.1.