The first victim is Lithuania - we no longer have great
profitability of the German-built Klaipėda port. Not only are we unable to do
anything ourselves. We are unable to take advantage of what others do to us. The Germans will not
forgive us for this. When we disappear completely, they will
erase the name of Lithuania, and there will be a second Königsberg.
"Although the majority of Russia's exports by sea now
go through the Baltic and Black Seas, the emerging risks in these basins are
encouraging Russia to turn to its northern facade, where it is the master - the
Arctic. Since the beginning of the events in Ukraine, cargo has been diverted
here, existing ports are being developed and new ones are being built.
Advantages of Murmansk
It is an ice-free deep-water port, capable of receiving
capesize bulk carriers. It does not require passage through straits controlled
by other countries, and it immediately enters the ocean.
It is currently the largest port in the Northern Basin. On
the western shore of the bay there is virtually unlimited open space for
building deep-water berths, and the new Lavna coal terminal is now operating
there.
Murmansk itself is a large city where qualified labor can be
found to service new capacities. It is also a base for icebreakers on the
Northeast Passage.
There are some repair capacities. Armed to the teeth: next
to it are important naval bases.
The latter circumstance, by the way, is not necessarily an
advantage, because the military is used to interfering in the shipping regime
for its own purposes.
Disadvantages of Murmansk
The main disadvantage of the port is, like its advantage,
its geography. It is doubly eccentric, maximally remote from the place of
origin of cargoes in the country and maximally remote from many destinations.
This makes it dependent on fluctuations in the market prices
of low-value bulk cargoes.
The same Lavna was built with coal prices several times
higher than they are now, and the terminal's economics are now questionable.
It is difficult to predict the conjuncture, and it is also
not easy to re-profile specialized terminals for new cargo.
Not everything is fine with railway capacities. Already at
the current port loading, some hub stations and sections, and roads are close
to the capacity limit.
In developing the port, it would be necessary to invest in a
railway all the way to Vologda.
Belarusian potash routes
After Klaipėda stopped loading potash, Belarusian exports
turned to Russian ports and even overland: up to a sixth of these fertilizer
exports to China were supplied by rail via Russia and Kazakhstan.
However, the majority went through the ports of St.
Petersburg and the Leningrad region. Non-specialized quays were used, and
fertilizers were loaded in bulk bags.
In 2022, the price of fertilizers ensured a good income even
using such logistics: at the peak of prices, spot prices for potassium chloride
on the exchange exceeded 1.2 thousand dollars per ton.
Now they fluctuate around 300 dollars. Belarus sells most of
its fertilizers under direct long-term contracts, so changes in spot prices are
reflected in contracts with a delay.
However, we should not be mistaken in thinking that
Soligorsk production is now being sold for less than $300/t.
Revenues are also being reduced by the longer sea transport
arm, the traditional markets of India and China are far away, and shipping by
small ships is not economical.
In such circumstances, Belarus decided last year to build a
deep-water port in Murmansk.
The new Belarusian port in Murmansk is planned next to the
existing Lavna coal terminal. It should ensure the handling of all of the
country's main exports - potash and nitrogen fertilizers, oil products, and
wood.
Construction is planned for 2029
It is not clear where the neighbors will get the funds for
such an investment. The only real source is a Russian loan.
If Russia adds tax breaks and a radically preferential
railway tariff to this, the economics of the project may seem viable.
However, the world is currently living in such a turbulent
period of uncertainty that in five years the geopolitical situation may look
completely different and such a scheme will no longer be rational. It is
characteristic that a Russian portal for professional transporters, in addition
to industry information, has also started to publish a logistics horoscope -
thus satisfying the acute need for reliable prognostics in the sector.
Arkhangelsk is too shallow
The historic port of Arkhangelsk, used for international
shipping since the 16th century, is still of local importance, with a cargo
capacity of only the first few million tons. Located in a shallow river delta,
it can at best accommodate handysize ships.
Its cargo is provided by the forest industry complex
(timber, pulp and paper production) and supply chains to the settlements and
military bases of the Red Sea. The port freezes for a long time, and
icebreakers are needed in winter.
However, Russia’s plans also envisage an ambitious role for
it. Last year, several seasonal voyages of small Chinese container ships via
the Northeast Sea Route were made to it.
Arkhangelsk is relatively close to Moscow and its use would
allow Moscow’s logistics center to receive Chinese containers, bypassing both
Suez and the congested Trans-Siberian Railway.
There is a plan to build an external deep-water port of
Arkhangelsk. However, so many deep-water projects have been announced in the
basin this century but not implemented (Kemë, Belomorsk, Indiga) that it is
difficult to believe in the reality of this project.
Political will exists
Last year, Vladimir Putin established the Naval College and
appointed his long-time colleague Nikolai Patrushev as its head. Commentators
assessed this as a downfall of N. Patrushev: until then he had been the head of
the FSB, the secretary of the Security Council, and participated in deciding
the fate of the world – and that’s it.
However, this appointment can also be looked at from another
angle: N. Patrushev remains close to V. Putin, and in this way the informal
powers of the Naval College itself increase.
The need for an authoritative center overseeing maritime
affairs has been there for a long time. The sector has been developing quite
chaotically.
Shipbuilding, port development, cargo base creation, and the
legal environment were not properly coordinated. This is especially true of the
Northern Basin with its specific requirements for ships and ports.
Some of the functions there were performed by the
state-owned company Atomflot, some by private raw material extraction
companies, and some were performed by no one, so the capacity creation
calendars were chronically inconsistent.
Now, it is hoped in
Russia, things will move more briskly there."
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