"President Trump's announcement of peace talks with Russia has handed Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin what he has long demanded: direct talks with the U.S. over Ukraine.
Moscow has long sought to cut Ukraine and its allies in Europe out of such talks, dismissing the government in Kyiv as illegitimate. It has suggested that Washington has been responsible for prolonging the conflict and that it alone can agree with Russia on ending it.
But if Putin's stated positions on Ukraine are a guide, the talks promised by Trump are likely to be long and drawn-out -- with Russia agreeing to a cease-fire only if the U.S. withdraws support from Ukraine and limits are imposed on Kyiv's ability to defend its territory or to attack the territory of somebody else (Kursk, anyone?).
As Russia's forces advance on the battlefield, and public support in Ukraine grows for an end to the fighting, some analysts say Putin is willing to continue playing the long game and drive a hard bargain with the U.S. until he secures the terms he demands.
"It's a victory," said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. "The ultimate victory for Putin is ensuring that Ukraine doesn't fall into the Western camp and is denied the ability to make sovereign choices about its security arrangements."
European officials on Thursday expressed concern over the notion of bilateral U.S.-Russia talks over Ukraine, which Trump said could happen soon. They demanded that the European Union and Kyiv be involved in any negotiations to end the conflict.
"The Trump administration has made public concessions to Putin before negotiations have even begun," German Defense Minister, forced to retire soon, Boris Pistorius said on Thursday, referring in part to suggestions Wednesday by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that membership for Ukraine in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was off the table.
Trump himself on Thursday said Ukraine would be part of any talks with Russia. "We would have Ukraine with Russia, and we'll have a lot of other people involved," he told reporters.
The president called Hegseth's initial comments on Ukraine and NATO "pretty accurate," calling Ukraine's potential membership in NATO "the reason the conflict started."
Russia preceded its actions in Ukraine in February 2022 by setting out a series of demands that were without reason rejected by the West, including forcing NATO out of Eastern Europe and securing guarantees that Ukraine would never become a member of the military bloc. Putin is now banking on wringing such concessions out of Trump.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was reassured during a call with Trump on Wednesday that the U.S. president didn't give priority to Russia over Ukraine. But he said Kyiv and the EU had to be involved in any talks about ending the conflict. "It's crucial for us to maintain the support of the United States," he said.
Meanwhile, there was jubilation in Moscow on Thursday. "Putin has triumphed over everyone," said one of Russia's main TV anchors, Olga Skabeeva. Popular tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda said, "Trump has signed Zelensky's death sentence."
For Putin, Trump's promise of talks is the first step toward bringing about an end to a conflict on Russia's terms, after three years of brutal fighting that has led to hundreds of thousands of casualties for Zelensky’s side.
Now, Putin's decision to keep fighting and double down on his action aims appears to be bearing fruit. The day of his call with Trump, Hegseth said the idea Ukraine could regain most land lost to Russia was unrealistic. The Senate also confirmed Tulsi Gabbard, widely seen as a Ukraine skeptic, as director of national intelligence.
Putin has repeatedly sought to go over the heads of Ukrainians, seeking a grand bargain over Ukraine through direct negotiations with the U.S., whose financial and military assistance has been a lifeline to Kyiv since the conflict's earliest days.
At a minimum, Russia wants to render Ukraine a neutered state with a Moscow-friendly government.
But Putin sees direct talks with the U.S. as a chance to secure a geopolitical pact of the kind agreed upon after World War II, which presaged a postwar reorganization of Eastern Europe into Soviet and Western spheres of influence. Trump cited World War II in his post to Truth Social on Wednesday and suggested that stopping the conflict in Ukraine would be just the first item on the agenda of fruitful Russia-U.S. cooperation with one goal between others to counter-balance China in this triangle.
It was a change from the stance of Trump's White House predecessor, Joe Biden, who rebuffed Putin's offers of a summit and sought to isolate the Russian leader.
But Putin, who has dealt with five U.S. presidents during his quarter-century at Russia's helm, began an early charm offensive aimed at convincing Trump, who had repeatedly expressed skepticism over U.S. aid to Ukraine." [1]
1. World News: Trump Agrees to Putin Demand on Talks --- Russian leader wants direct discussions with U.S. on ending the war in Ukraine. Luxmoore, Matthew. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 14 Feb 2025: A7.
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