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2026 m. sausio 16 d., penktadienis

Using AI to Create New Drugs: Biotech Venture-Capital Deals Poised to Recover in '26

 

Startups use AI in drug discovery to rapidly analyze complex biological data for identifying new targets, designing novel molecules with generative AI, predicting drug efficacy/toxicity, optimizing clinical trials, and finding new uses for existing drugs (repurposing). They leverage machine learning to predict compound interactions, use deep learning for biomarker discovery, and employ AI to streamline processes, significantly cutting costs and time compared to traditional methods.

 

Key AI Applications in Drug Discovery

    Target Identification & Validation: AI analyzes genomics, proteomics, and literature to find new disease targets, often identifying multiple potential targets from complex biological pathways.

    De Novo Drug Design: Generative AI creates new molecular structures with desired properties (like binding to a target) from scratch, moving beyond existing chemical libraries.

    Compound Screening & Optimization: AI predicts a compound's efficacy, safety (ADME/Tox), and synthesizability, helping researchers focus on the most promising candidates early on.

    Biomarker Discovery: Deep learning identifies molecular signatures that predict disease progression or treatment response, leading to personalized medicine.

    Clinical Trial Optimization: AI improves patient selection, simulates trial outcomes, and integrates real-world data to make trials faster and more efficient.

    Drug Repurposing: AI matches existing drugs to new diseases by finding novel interactions, speeding up the path to new treatments.

 

How Startups Implement AI

 

    Data Integration: Combining diverse datasets (genomic, chemical, clinical) to build predictive models.

    Platform Technologies: Developing unique AI platforms (e.g., specialized chips for high-throughput screening) that integrate AI with automation.

    Focus on Bottlenecks: Using AI to overcome traditional bottlenecks, like predicting multiple drug properties simultaneously rather than sequentially.

    Reinforcement Learning: Using reinforcement learning to fine-tune molecules towards specific, user-defined goals, exploring vast chemical spaces.

 

By applying these methods, AI-driven drug discovery startups aim to drastically reduce the decades-long, multi-billion dollar process of bringing a drug to market, with AI-discovered drugs showing higher success rates in early trials.

 

Are there open source Chinese AI tools for discovery of new medicines?

 

China offers open-source databases and AI frameworks for drug discovery, particularly integrating Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM, e.g. genistein used for osteoporosis and menopausal symptoms) with modern AI, like TCMBank, TCMSP, and platforms from companies such as Insilico Medicine (though some tools are proprietary) and models like Huawei's Jiu Wei-TCM-LLM, providing data and tools for identifying herbs, ingredients, targets, and accelerating research, with major players like Alibaba also open-sourcing foundational AI models.

 

Open-Source Databases & Platforms (TCM Focus)

 

    TCMBank: A large, free database with standardized TCM info, targets, diseases, and an ensemble learning protocol for drug discovery/repurposing.

    TCMSP (Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology): Offers data on herbs, ingredients, targets, and ADME, with visualization tools for drug discovery from herbs.

    ShennongAlpha (ShennongKB): A knowledge base built on MongoDB, integrating data from Chinese Pharmacopoeia for TCM research.

 

Key Chinese AI Players & Tools

 

    Insilico Medicine: Uses AI (like Chemistry42) for drug discovery, with operations in China, and integrates open-source tools like Virtualflow for screening.

    Huawei & Partners: Developed models like Jiu Wei-TCM-LLM for drug analysis, target prediction, and Digital Herbalism with Tianshili for natural medicine discovery.

 

Alibaba: Open-sources foundational generative models (Qwen), fostering broader AI development that can be adapted for pharma.

 

    DeepSeek: An open-source LLM developer, releasing powerful models (like R1) that can underpin various AI applications, including drug discovery.

 

 DeepSeek-R1 is applied in drug discovery by leveraging its strong reasoning for tasks like identifying drug targets, predicting protein structures, accelerating virtual screening, and even enabling virtual clinical trials via digital patient twins, all aimed at speeding up research, reducing costs, and enhancing personalized medicine through advanced, context-aware AI analysis. Its ability to understand complex biological data and generate structured outputs makes it useful from early target identification to simulating drug effects.

 

Key Applications in Drug Discovery:

 

    Drug Target Identification & Validation: R1 helps pinpoint promising biological targets for new drugs by analyzing vast datasets and complex biological relationships, a key early step in the pipeline.

    Protein Structure Prediction: It assists in understanding protein shapes and functions, crucial for designing molecules that interact effectively with them, by predicting unknown protein structures.

    Virtual Screening: By generating digital twins and simulating interactions, R1 allows researchers to virtually test thousands of drug candidates (ligands) against targets before expensive physical experiments, saving significant time and money.

    Personalized Medicine: Its reasoning capabilities can help tailor treatments by creating digital patient models, allowing for personalized drug combinations and dosing strategies, as seen in AI-driven protocol adjustments in trials.

    Clinical Trial Optimization: R1 can monitor biomarker trends in real-time during trials, enabling faster dose modifications, potentially reducing adverse events, and supporting more efficient trial designs.

    Data Synthesis & Hypothesis Generation: Researchers use R1 for tasks like generating diagnostic hypotheses, differential diagnoses, and designing workups for complex cases, demonstrating its broad analytical power in medicine.

 

How it Works (Key Features):

 

    Reasoning & Context: R1 excels at scientific reasoning and maintaining context over long interactions, allowing it to understand complex biological narratives and self-correct.

 

    Multi-Modal Data Handling: It can process various data types (text, potentially images/sequences), making it versatile for biological research.

 

    Cost-Effective & Efficient: Techniques like multi-head latent attention allow it to generate multiple outputs at once, increasing efficiency and lowering operational costs compared to other models.  Multi-Head Latent Attention (MLA) is an advanced attention mechanism, popularized by DeepSeek-V2, that significantly boosts transformer efficiency by compressing Key (K) and Value (V) vectors into a shared, low-rank "latent space," drastically reducing memory usage (KV cache) during inference without sacrificing performance, and often improving it. Instead of storing full K/V pairs for each head, MLA uses a shared, compressed latent vector, making it highly scalable for long sequences and complex models, unlike standard Multi-Head Attention (MHA) or even Grouped-Query Attention (GQA).

 

Examples of Chinese AI Applications for Drug Discovery

 

    DrugCLIP: A Chinese-developed AI framework for ultra-fast virtual screening of drug compounds against protein targets.

    Jiu Wei-TCM-LLM: Used for analyzing TCM, predicting targets, and understanding drug interactions.

 

These resources, both large databases and foundational AI models, enable researchers to leverage AI for identifying new therapeutic candidates, especially within the rich context of Traditional Chinese Medicine.

  

The results of all this activity are promising: 

 

“A run of pharmaceutical mergers and acquisitions is fueling optimism that biotechnology venture capital is poised to rebound from its postpandemic slump.

 

With $223 billion in biotech M&A deals worldwide, 2025 was the industry's third-busiest year on record, according to investment bank Stifel.

 

Recent acquisitions illustrate drugmakers' aggressive pursuit of deals that could help them compete in hot markets, like obesity, and refuel with startups' new products as their own top-selling medicines come off patent. In November, Pfizer won a bidding war with rival Novo Nordisk to buy obesity-focused Metsera -- one of the few venture-backed biotechs to go public in 2025 -- in a deal that could be valued at more than $10 billion.

 

"We've seen a spate of M&A that's reinvigorating enthusiasm for the sector," said Dr. Brian Abrahams, head of global healthcare research for RBC Capital Markets.

 

M&A deals help venture and other investors deliver returns to their backers and put more money to work in new companies. That could help reverse last year's slide, when U.S. and European biotechs raised $26 billion in venture capital, down from $27 billion in 2024, according to HSBC Innovation Banking.

 

Last spring, uncertainty stemming from President Trump's tariffs slowed venture investment.

 

Shortly after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement in April, startup Crystalys Therapeutics lost investors that had agreed to back the company's Series A round, said co-founder and Chief Executive James Mackay.

 

"They just decided not to invest anywhere until things settled down," Mackay said. Crystalys, which is developing a treatment for gout, found replacements and disclosed a $205 million Series A round in September.

 

But funding recovered in the second half as investors and drugmakers digested the policy shifts and concluded they wouldn't hurt as much as initially expected. Pharmaceutical companies resumed their hunt for startups to buy, reviving interest in biotech.

 

"People started realizing you get rewarded for taking risk," said Anna Fan, senior partner, public equity on the venture investments team of Novo Holdings.

 

Startups applying artificial intelligence to drug discovery are advancing medications into clinical trials and getting pharmaceutical companies' attention, another development sparking interest in biotech.

 

Biotech startup Enveda, which uses AI to scour nature for molecules that can be fashioned into new drugs, recently moved its third compound into clinical trials, a possible treatment for inflammatory bowel disease, after earlier advancing other drug candidates into the clinic: one for eczema and asthma, the other for obesity.

 

Last year, the company fetched interest from pharmaceutical companies, but instead raised a $150 million Series D financing so it could maintain full ownership of its drug pipeline, said founder and Chief Executive Viswa Colluru.

 

Biotech initial public offerings stalled last year, with just nine companies listing on U.S. exchanges, down from 19 in 2024, according to J.P. Morgan.

 

But last week's IPO of radiopharmaceuticals company Aktis Oncology got 2026 off to a sprightly start. Aktis not only upsized its offering, but went public at the top of its expected range.

 

An improved IPO market would give biotech startups more financing options, provide competition to pharmaceutical acquirers and add to venture investors' confidence in the sector.

 

Several mature biotechs are now considering a public listing, leading investors to expect a better pace of IPOs in 2026.

 

"It's going to be a much more productive year, with a high bar on quality," said Dr. Jim Healy, managing partner at Sofinnova Investments.” [1]

 

1. Markets: Biotech Venture-Capital Deals Poised to Recover in '26. Gormley, Brian.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 16 Jan 2026: B9.  

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