Why Isn’t New Technology Making Us More Productive?

"Innovations like cloud computing and artificial intelligence are hailed as engines of a coming productivity revival. But a broad payoff across the economy has been elusive.

For years, it has been an article of faith in corporate America that cloud computing and artificial intelligence will fuel a surge in wealth-generating productivity. That belief has inspired a flood of venture funding and company spending. And the payoff, proponents insist, will not be confined to a small group of tech giants but will spread across the economy.

It hasn’t happened yet.

Productivity, which is defined as the value of goods and services produced per hour of work, fell sharply in the first quarter this year, the government reported this month. The quarterly numbers are often volatile, but the report seemed to dash earlier hopes that a productivity revival was finally underway, helped by accelerated investment in digital technologies during the pandemic.

The growth in productivity since the pandemic hit now stands at about 1 percent annually, in line with the meager rate since 2010 — and far below the last stretch of robust improvement, from 1996 to 2004, when productivity grew more than 3 percent a year.

Economies grow not only by adding more capital and labor. Another vital ingredient is a nation’s skill in creating and commercializing innovation, which makes investment and workers more productive.

Seemingly small percentage gains in productivity can make a big difference in a country’s wealth and living standards over time. Even an additional 1 percent annual increase in productivity over a few years, to 2024, would generate an extra $3,500 in per-capita income for Americans, McKinsey & Company estimated in a report last year. The 3.8 percent average annual gain from 1948 to 1972 was the engine of the nation’s postwar prosperity.

Productivity is not a cure-all for economic ills. “Even if the optimism about this wave of digital technology proves justified, that does not mean there will be a real sharing of the benefits,” said Laura Tyson, a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Clinton administration.

But a less productive economy is a smaller one with fewer resources to deal with social challenges like inequality.

The current productivity puzzle is the subject of spirited debate among economists. Robert J. Gordon, an economist at Northwestern University, is the leading skeptic. Today’s artificial intelligence, he says, is mainly a technology of pattern recognition, poring through vast troves of words, images and numbers. Its feats, according to Mr. Gordon, are “impressive but not transformational” in the way that electricity and the internal combustion engine were.

Erik Brynjolfsson, director of Stanford University’s Digital Economy Lab, is the leader of the optimists’ camp. He confesses to being somewhat disappointed that the productivity pickup is not yet evident, but is convinced it is only a matter of time.

“Real change is happening — a tidal wave of transformation is underway,” Mr. Brynjolfsson said. “We’re seeing more and more facts on the ground.”

It will probably be years before there is a definitive answer to the productivity debate. Mr. Brynjolfsson and Mr. Gordon made a “long bet” last year, with the winner determined at the end of 2029. But studies at the industry and company levels, tapping data that ranges from Census Bureau business surveys to online job listings, show the pattern of technology diffusion and the obstacles.

The leaders are mainly large companies that have been investing in digital technology for years and high-growth younger companies, which are often backed by venture capital. Cloud computing is fairly widely adopted, but not the most advanced technology, like A.I applications.

The limited uptake, some experts say, is not so surprising at this stage, given that three-quarters of American businesses are small, with fewer than 10 employees.

At Anthem, a health insurer whose plans cover more than 45 million people, about 75 percent of the customer questions are now handled through its digital channels, including a web portal, a mobile app and speech recognition software. Three years earlier, the digital share was about 30 percent. The question-answering technology to help people with basic tasks like checking the status of a claim, paying a bill or finding a doctor is animated partly by A.I.

Digital automation has eliminated 10 million phone calls that Anthem’s call centers would have fielded, estimated Rajeev Ronanki, president of digital platforms.

Anthem, which is changing its corporate name next month to Elevance Health, is not cutting its customer service staff. But the role of those workers and how their performance is measured have changed. The traditional metric of performance in call centers is “call-handle time,” and the less time per call, the better. Anthem now wants its customer service staff to resolve problems for callers with one call, whenever possible, rather than passing them to another department.

Many of its call center agents have received additional training to become what Anthem calls “care navigators.” Measurements of their performance now include issues resolved and consumer satisfaction surveys. By that broader set of measures, Mr. Ronanki said, the company’s contact agents are 30 percent to 40 percent more productive. Adding skills and redesigning work, he said, are as important as improving technology.

“Building the technical capability alone is just the beginning,” Mr. Ronanki said.

It takes time for new technologies to spread and for people to figure how to best use them. For example, the electric motor, which was introduced in the 1880s, did not generate discernible productivity gains until the 1920s, when the mass-production assembly line reorganized work around the technology.

The personal computer revolution took off in the 1980s. But it was not until the second half of the 1990s that economic productivity really surged, as those machines became cheaper, more powerful and connected to the internet.

The 1990s revival was helped by a leap in technology investment by companies and by venture capitalists, especially in internet and web start-ups. Similarly, in the past decade software spending in the United States has more than doubled to $385 billion, as companies invest to digitize their operations, the research firm IDC reported.

Venture investment in artificial intelligence start-ups worldwide increased more than 80 percent last year to $115 billion, according to PitchBook, which tracks financing.

Cresta is an A.I. start-up trying to make a dent in the modern productivity problem. In 2020, Cresta introduced its initial product: real-time recommendation and coaching software for call center agents. Its technology digests huge volumes of text and voice conversations to identify patterns of behavior, and answers to questions that solve customer problems or generate sales.

The goal is not to replace workers but to lift their performance, said Zayd Enam, the company’s co-founder and chief executive. Cresta’s offering, he said, is made possible by recent advances in the power and speed of A.I. software, which he described as “game changing.”

Cresta has 200 employees, has raised more than $150 million in venture funding and has several dozen corporate customers including Verizon, Cox Communications and Porsche.

CarMax, the nation’s largest used-car retailer, started trying out the Cresta software in December. The A.I. experiment followed years of investment to shift the company’s computer operations to run on more flexible, cloud-based systems, said Jim Lyski, executive vice president for strategy, marketing and products.

Customer inquiries to CarMax’s contact centers tend to be lengthy. Used cars span different years, models, features and driving histories, and financing plans for what is a major purchase vary. The range of questions is all but unlimited, Mr. Lyski said, so purely automated communication is not an option.

But a computing assistant that could help sort all the automotive complexity, offering real-time suggestions and information, was appealing. Cresta first trained on the CarMax contact center data, and the experiment began with its live chat agents, who have text conversations with customers.

The experience has been encouraging, Mr. Lyski said. There has been about a 10 percent improvement in response time, conversion to sales and reduced session time. And the system keeps learning and getting better. The company has begun a pilot project with agents who field voice calls, lifting the total number of agents using the A.I. technology to 200.

One concern, Mr. Lyski said, was how employees would respond to having A.I. over their shoulders. Would it be good enough to be seen as a welcome helper instead of an irritating distraction? The reaction has been positive, he said.

Cresta began with contact centers as a large, early market because it is a labor-intensive field where A.I. can be applied relatively quickly and productively. But Mr. Enam sees its “real-time intelligence A.I.” potentially being useful in a wide range of knowledge work, acting as a clever assistant in everything from hiring to product development.

“This technology is more general purpose than we see now,” he said.

Mr. Brynjolfsson of Stanford is betting that’s true, and Mr. Gordon of Northwestern is doubtful.”

Didėjantys paskolų nuošimčiai spaudžia butų savininkus, investuotojus --- Didesnės skolinimosi išlaidos mažina pelną, o butų savininkai siekia padidinti nuomos mokesčius, kad užpildytų spragą

  „Investuotojai, per pastaruosius metus pakėlę daugiabučių namų kainas iki rekordinio lygio, pradeda patirti spaudimą, nes sparčiai augančios palūkanų normos mažina jų pelną.

 

    Dėl aukštesnių skolinimosi palūkanų butų savininkams sunkiau grąžinti paskolas. Tai taip pat gali būti bloga žinia nuomininkams, jei tai paskatins pastatų savininkus didinti nuomos mokesčius, nei jie galėtų kitu atveju, nes tai yra pagrindinis jų įrankis gauti daugiau pajamų.

 

    Daugiabučių namų pardavimai buvo dideli, tačiau per pandemiją jie sumušė rekordus, kai nuomos kainos išaugo iki rekordinio lygio. Daugiabučių kainos kilo dar sparčiau, nes investuotojai lažinasi, kad nuomos kainos kils ir ateityje.

 

    CBRE Group Inc. duomenimis, 2019–2021 m. metinė nuomos butų pirkimo apimtis beveik padvigubėjo. Pirmąjį 2022 m. ketvirtį investuotojai daugiabučiams išleido 63 mlrd. dolerių – tai didžiausias skaičius istorijoje.

 

    Pastaruoju metu įvyko du dalykai, dėl kurių būsimas pelnas tampa sudėtingesnis. Investuotojai pradėjo pirkti daugiabučius tokiomis kainomis, kurios pakilo taip greitai, kad jų grąžos mažėja. „MSCI Real Assets“ duomenimis, per pirmąjį šių metų ketvirtį, palyginti su tuo pačiu praėjusių metų ketvirčiu, už daugiabučius sumokėtos kainos išaugo 22,4 proc.

 

    Paskui šiais metais palūkanų normos greitai pakilo, todėl, pasak komercinio nekilnojamojo turto brokerių ir investuotojų, kai kurių daugiabučių namų pradinės grąžos normos nukrito procentiniu punktu ar daugiau žemiau už jų būsto paskolos palūkanų normą. Disbalansas reiškia, kad savininkai uždirba mažiau pinigų iš savo pastatų, nei jų bankai, net jei savininkai rizikuoja daug daugiau.

 

    Šis reiškinys, pramonėje žinomas kaip neigiamas finansinis svertas, nebuvo taip plačiai paplitęs nuo antrinių paskolų krizės, kai labai išaugo įsipareigojimų nevykdymas už daugiabučių namų statybą.

 

    Investicijų į nekilnojamąjį turtą valdytojas „Palladius Capital Management“ vadovas Nitinas Chexalis nerimauja, kad kai kurie investuotojai nepasimokė iš 2008-ųjų metų, kai pirkėjai permokėjo už pastatus ir nukentėjo užšalus finansų rinkoms.

 

    „Jūs matote daug tų pačių klaidų“, – sakė jis.

 

    Mažai kas tikisi įsipareigojimų neįvykdymo bangos, panašios į antrinės rizikos paskolų krizę. Investuotojai šiandien yra mažiau įsiskolinę, o nuomojami daugiabučiai, greičiausiai, ir toliau patiks dideliems pensijų fondams ir turto valdytojams, kaip gana stabilus turtas, kas skatins kainas augti.

 

    Be to, daugelis butų investuotojų mano, kad jie išgyventų mažesnės grąžos laikotarpį, nes tikisi, kad nuomos kainos gali toliau sparčiai augti ir, laikui bėgant, didinti jų grąžą.

 

    Tai rizikingas statymas, nes daugelis nuomininkų jau yra įstrigę. Remiantis Realtor.com, bet kurio nuomojamo vieneto nuomos vidurkis balandį pakilo iki 1 827 dolerių, o tai yra didžiausia užfiksuota nuomos kaina ir beveik 17% daugiau, nei praėjusiais metais. 

 

„News Corp“, „The Wall Street Journal“ savininkas, valdo Realtor.com pagal Nacionalinės nekilnojamojo turto agentūrų asociacijos licenciją.

 

    Savininkai, mokėję dideles kainas už daugiabučius, gali susidurti su rizika, jei nuomos augimas sulėtės, o kylančios palūkanų normos gali sumažinti pastatų vertę ir apsunkinti būsto paskolų refinansavimą. Net ir nedidelių bėdų banga gali turėti didelių pasekmių finansų sektoriui dėl didžiulės pinigų sumos, kuri dabar yra pririšta prie butų nuomos sektoriaus.

 

    Hipotekos bankininkų asociacijos duomenimis, nuo finansų krizės nemokamos hipotekos skolos, padengtos daugiabučiais namais, išaugo daugiau, nei dvigubai, iki 1,8 trilijono dolerių.

 

    Investuotojai paprastai apskaičiuoja pastato pelningumą, padalydami turto pelną prieš hipotekos mokėjimus iš pirkimo kainos. Teoriškai ta vadinamoji kapitalizacijos norma turėtų būti didesnė už hipotekos palūkanų normą, nes investuotojas prisiima didesnę riziką, nei hipotekos skolintojas, kuriam įsipareigojimų nevykdymo atveju išmokama pirmam.

 

    Taip nutinka vis rečiau, net ir renovuojamiems ir dažniausiai nuomojamiems pastatams. Tiesą sakant, šie pelningumo rodikliai nuolat mažėjo nuo 2015 m., teigia CBRE.

 

    Kad šie investuotojai išeitų į priekį, jiems reikia, kad nuomos pajamos padidėtų. „Jūs iš esmės bėgate, kad pasivytumėte savo skolą“, – sakė J. Chexal. Pasak jo, problema yra ta, kad pastaruoju metu kilusios hipotekos palūkanų normos reiškia, kad investuotojai turi veikti dar greičiau.

 

    Pasak Davido Brickmano, nekilnojamojo turto finansų bendrovės „NewPoint Real Estate Capital“ generalinio direktoriaus ir buvusio būsto finansavimo bendrovės „Freddie“ vadovo Davido Brickmano, jei palūkanų normos kils greičiau, nei nuomos mokesčiai, tikėtina, kad pastatų vertė kris ir savininkai gali patirti spaudimą, kai baigsis jų hipotekos terminas.

 

    Jis sakė, kad investuotojai nuolat perka daugiabučius, kurių kapitalizacija siekia net 3,5 proc.

 

    Tačiau kai kurių iš šių sandorių hipotekos palūkanų normos dabar pakilo virš 4,5%, nes Federalinis rezervų bankas griežtina pinigų politiką, kad kovotų su infliacija. Nors jis nesitiki įsipareigojimų nevykdymo bangos, J. Brickmanas teigė, kad kai kurie butų savininkams skolintojai gali patirti stresą.

 

     „Nėra jokios abejonės, kad jūsų nuoma augs; klausimas, ar jis viršys palūkanų normas“, – sakė jis.” [1]

1. Rising Rates Press Landlords, Investors --- Higher borrowing costs squeeze profits and landlords look to raise rents to fill gap
Putzier, Konrad; Parker, Will. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 May 2022: B.6.

Rising Rates Press Landlords, Investors --- Higher borrowing costs squeeze profits and landlords look to raise rents to fill gap

"Investors who bid up apartment-building prices to record levels over the past year are starting to come under pressure as rapidly rising interest rates squeeze their profits.

Steeper borrowing rates make it harder for apartment landlords to pay back their loans. That could also be bad news for tenants, if it encourages building owners to raise rents higher than they might otherwise because that is their primary tool for generating more income.

Sales of apartment buildings have been strong for years, but they broke records during the pandemic when rents soared to record levels. Prices of apartment buildings rose even faster, as investors bet that rents will keep going up in the future.

The annual volume of rental-apartment purchases almost doubled between 2019 and 2021, according to CBRE Group Inc. In the first quarter of 2022, investors spent $63 billion on apartment buildings, the highest figure on record.

Two things have happened recently that make future profits more challenging. Investors started buying apartment buildings at prices that have gone up so much so fast that their return rates are shrinking. Prices paid for apartment buildings rose 22.4% during this year's first quarter from the same quarter a year ago, according to MSCI Real Assets.

Then interest rates shot up quickly this year, so that some multifamily initial return rates have fallen a percentage point or more below the interest rate on their mortgage, according to commercial-real-estate brokers and investors. The imbalance means landlords make less money on their buildings than their banks, even though they carry much more risk.

This phenomenon, known in the industry as negative leverage, hasn't been this widespread since the subprime crisis when defaults on apartment-building debt soared.

Nitin Chexal, chief executive of real-estate investment manager Palladius Capital Management, worries that some investors haven't learned their lesson from the years before 2008, when buyers overpaid for buildings and suffered when financial markets froze up.

"You're seeing a lot of the same mistakes," he said.

Few expect a wave of defaults similar to the subprime crisis. Investors are less indebted today, and rental-apartment buildings are likely to continue to appeal to big pension funds and asset managers as a relatively stable asset, propping up prices.

Moreover, many apartment investors believe they would survive a period of lower returns because they expect rents can continue growing at a fast pace, pushing up their returns over time.

That is an uncertain bet, given that many tenants are already pinched. The median asking rent for any rental unit rose to $1,827 in April, according to Realtor.com, the highest rent on record and a nearly 17% gain from the prior year. News Corp, owner of The Wall Street Journal, operates Realtor.com under license from the National Association of Realtors.

Owners who paid steep prices for apartment buildings could be at risk if rent growth slows, while rising interest rates threaten to push down building values and make it harder to refinance mortgages. Even a wave of minor distress could have far-reaching consequences for the financial sector because of the sheer amount of money that is now tied up in the rental-apartment sector.

Outstanding mortgage debt backed by multifamily buildings has more than doubled since the financial crisis to $1.8 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Investors usually calculate a building's profitability by dividing the property's profits before mortgage payments by the purchase price. In theory, that so-called capitalization rate should be higher than the interest rate on the mortgage, because the investor carries more risk than the mortgage lender, who gets paid off first in the event of a default.

That is less and less the case, even for buildings that are renovated and mostly leased up. In fact, these profitability rates have been steadily declining since 2015, according to CBRE.

To come out ahead, these investors need rental income to rise. "You're basically running to catch up to your debt," Mr. Chexal said. The problem, he said, is that the recent rise in mortgage rates means investors need to run even faster.

If interest rates rise faster than rents, building values are likely to fall and owners may come under pressure when their mortgage matures, according to David Brickman, CEO of real-estate finance company NewPoint Real Estate Capital and former head of housing-finance company Freddie Mac.

Investors have been routinely buying apartment buildings at capitalization rates as low as 3.5%, he said.

But mortgage rates on some of these deals have now risen above 4.5% as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to fight inflation. While he doesn't expect a wave of defaults, Mr. Brickman said some lenders to apartment owners might come under stress.

"There's no question you're going to have rent growth; the question is whether it will outpace interest rates," he said." [1]

1. Rising Rates Press Landlords, Investors --- Higher borrowing costs squeeze profits and landlords look to raise rents to fill gap
Putzier, Konrad; Parker, Will. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 May 2022: B.6.

Stambiausias JAV parduotuvių tinklas „Walmart“ plečia bepiločių orlaivių naudojimą pristatymui

„Walmart Inc. plečia savo bepiločių orlaivių pristatymo operacijas į maždaug 4 milijonus namų ūkių šešiose valstijose, nes didelės dėžės mažmenininkas nori pridėti greitą pristatymą, kad besiformuojančioje erdvėje konkuruotų su tokiomis įmonėmis, kaip Amazon.com Inc. ir FedEx Corp.

 

    „Walmart“ antradienį pranešė, kad per metus bepiločiu orlaiviu galės pristatyti daugiau, nei 1 mln. pakuočių į namų ūkius Arizonos, Arkanzaso, Floridos, Teksaso, Jutos ir Virdžinijos valstijose. Paslauga turės 3,99 dolerio pristatymo mokestį už užsakymą ir vienu metu gali pristatyti iki 10 svarų.

 

    Šis pranešimas yra partnerystės su operatoriumi DroneUp LLC, kuris lapkričio mėnesį pradėjo eksploatuoti dronų pristatymo centrus iš Walmart parduotuvių Arkanzase, plėtra. Užsakymai vykdomi iš parduotuvių, pakraunami į dronus ir pristatomi į kiemus, naudojant laidą, nuleidžiantį pakuotę ant žemės. „Walmart“ praėjusį birželį investavo į „DroneUp“.

 

    „Walmart“ prisijungia prie kitų mažmenininkų, tokių, kaip „Amazon“, taip pat pristatymo įmonių, tokių, kaip „FedEx“ ir „United Parcel Service Inc.“, kad galėtų ištirti prekių pristatymą, naudojant dronus. Įmonės jau daugelį metų reklamuoja dronus, kaip galimą sprendimą brangiai kainuojančiam paskutiniam pristatymo į namus etapui ir taip pat ekonomiškesniu būdu pasiekti kaimo klientus.

 

    Davidas Guggina, „Walmart“ inovacijų ir automatizavimo vyresnysis viceprezidentas, sakė, kad bendrovė buvo nustebinta, kaip klientai iki šiol naudojasi drono paslauga. Jie manė, kad dauguma užsakymų bus skirti avarinėms reikmėms.

 

    „Pastebime, kad jie jį naudoja siekdami patogumo, kaip greitą savaitės vakarienės pataisymą“, – antradienį rašė jis įmonės tinklaraščio įraše. Geriausiai parduodamas viename centre: supakuotas patiekalų rinkinys „Hamburger Helper“.

 

    Ankstyvasis komercinis dronų operacijų pritaikymas buvo ribotas. Pirmasis UPS patvirtinimas dėl komercinių bepiločių orlaivių operacijų buvo susijęs su medicinos produktų ir pavyzdžių gabenimu į ligoninių miestelius.

 

    Anksčiau šiais metais „FedEx Express“ padalinys pranešė bendradarbiaujantis su „Elroy Air Inc.“ dėl autonominio bepiločių orlaivių krovinių pristatymo, kad kroviniai būtų perkeliami iš vieno rūšiavimo centro į kitą.

 

    UPS generalinė direktorė Carol Tome anksčiau šiais metais sakė, kad platesnis komercinis bepiločių orlaivių pristatymo tinklas vis dar yra toli. 

 

"Su bepiločiais orlaiviais kyla daug problemų. Negalite jais skraidinti, kai pučia vėjas, negalite skristi, kai lyja", – sakė ponia Tome per JAV prekybos rūmų renginį sausio mėnesį. 

 

„Ateis laikas, kai dronai turės didesnį komercinį vaidmenį“." [1]

1. Business News: Walmart Expanding Use Of Drones for Deliveries
Feuer, Will. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 May 2022: B.3.

Walmart Expanding Use Of Drones for Deliveries

"Walmart Inc. is expanding its drone delivery operations to some 4 million households in six states, as the big-box retailer looks to add speedy delivery to compete in the nascent space with the likes of Amazon.com Inc. and FedEx Corp.

Walmart said Tuesday it will be able to deliver more than 1 million packages by drone a year in as little as 30 minutes to households in parts of Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Utah and Virginia. The service will have a $3.99 delivery fee per order and can deliver up to 10 pounds at a time.

The announcement is an expansion of a partnership with operator DroneUp LLC, which began operating drone-delivery hubs out of Walmart stores in Arkansas in November. Orders are fulfilled from stores, loaded onto the drones and delivered to yards using a cable that lowers the package to the ground. Walmart invested in DroneUp last June.

Walmart joins other retailers like Amazon, as well as delivery firms like FedEx and United Parcel Service Inc., to explore delivering items using drones. The companies have for years touted drones as a potential solution to the costly last mile of home deliveries and also to reach rural customers in a more cost-effective way.

David Guggina, Walmart's senior vice president of innovation and automation, said that the company has been surprised how customers have been using the drone service so far. They thought most orders would be for emergency supplies.

"We're finding they use it for sheer convenience, like a quick fix for a weeknight meal," he wrote in a corporate blog post Tuesday. A top seller at one hub: the boxed meal kit Hamburger Helper.

Early commercial applications of drone operations have been limited. UPS's first approval of commercial drone operations involved shipping medical products and specimens across hospital campuses.

FedEx's Express unit earlier this year said it was partnering with Elroy Air Inc. on autonomous drone cargo delivery to move shipments between sortation centers.

UPS Chief Executive Carol Tome earlier this year said that a broader commercial drone delivery network is still a ways off. "There are lots of issues with drones. You can't fly them when it's windy, you can't fly them when it's rainy," Ms. Tome said at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event in January. "There will be a time when drones have a bigger role commercially."" [1]

1. Business News: Walmart Expanding Use Of Drones for Deliveries
Feuer, Will. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 May 2022: B.3.

 

„Boeing“ mato saugesnius lėktuvus pokyčių dėka

 „EVERETT, Wash. – „Boeing Co.“ saugos vadovas sakė, kad po dviejų mirtinų 737 MAX katastrofų vykstantys pokyčiai lėktuvo gamintoja turėtų neleisti inžinieriams sukurti kitos automatinės kabinos sistemos be pakankamų apsaugos priemonių.

 

    Bendrovės vyriausiasis aviacijos saugos pareigūnas Mike'as Delaney'us sakė, kad pakeitimai buvo ilgalaikio postūmio, skirto pagerinti tai, kaip lėktuvų gamintojas sprendžia inžinerijos ir saugos klausimus, dalis, praėjus trejiems metams po nelaimingų atsitikimų.

 

    Kai „Boeing“ siekia sutelkti darbuotojus už saugos postūmio, J. Delaney sakė nenorįs, kad jo pastangos veiktų, kaip komisija dėl to, kas nutiko artėjant avarijoms.

 

    „Iš esmės judame į priekį“, – sakė ponas Delaney, kuris prižiūrėjo naujus komercinius orlaivius kuriant 737 MAX. „Bet aš taip pat žinau, kad galiausiai reikia pažvelgti į veidrodį, atsigręžti ir pasakyti: „Ei, ko mums reikia išmokti?“. Ir mes dabar pasiekiame tą kelionės tašką.

 

    Jo komentarai buvo paskelbti pirmadienį bendrovės biuruose netoli Sietlo surengtoje žiniasklaidos konferencijoje apie pastangas pagerinti „Boeing“ inžinerinę ir saugos praktiką po MAX katastrofų.

 

    Avarijose 2018 ir 2019 metais žuvo 346 žmonės. Tyrėjai didžiąja dalimi kaltino „Boeing“ skrydžių valdymo sistemą, kuri įstūmė lėktuvus į mirtiną skrydį žemyn nosimi. Avarijos atskleidė inžinerines ir reguliavimo klaidas, dėl kurių buvo pridėta automatinės kabinos funkcijos, žinomos kaip MCAS, apsaugos priemonės, naujas pilotų mokymas ir iš naujo išnagrinėtos pramonės prielaidos, kaip pilotai reaguoja į ekstremalias situacijas skrydžio metu.

 

    „Boeing“ siekia pagerinti savo saugos kultūrą, J. Delaney sakė, kad bendrovė taip pat išnagrinės problemas, kylančias dėl orlaivio tobulinimo ir atsako į avarijas. Nei įmonė, nei reguliuotojai nesiėmė sustabdyti reaktyvinių lėktuvų naudojimą, kol nesudužo antrasis 737 MAX.

 

    Nors jis teigė manantis, kad dizaino pakeitimai turėtų neleisti inžinieriams sukurti automatinių kabinos sistemų be pakankamų apsaugos priemonių, jis atkreipė dėmesį į dedamas daug pastangų, kuriomis siekiama sustiprinti bendrą „Boeing“ saugos kultūrą.

 

    J. Delaney ir kiti vadovai teigė, kad bendrovė diegia naujas sistemas, skirtas valdyti saugos riziką, išgauti oro linijų duomenis apie prasidedančias veiklos problemas ir skatinti darbuotojus kelti susirūpinimą dėl galimų pavojų.

 

    Jie teigė, kad stengiasi integruoti naują „Boeing“ saugos valdymo sistemą su oro linijų sistemomis, kad nustatytų pavojus ir išvengtų nelaimingų atsitikimų. Jie teigė, kad bendrovė dalijasi daugiau duomenų su reguliavimo institucijomis ir oro linijomis visame pasaulyje, taip pat rengia naujus pilotų mokymus.

 

    Kai kuriuos pakeitimus, kuriuos pirmadienį pabrėžė „Boeing“ vadovai, inicijavo lėktuvų gamintojas, įskaitant jo inžinerijos skyriaus reorganizavimą ir valdybos lygio komiteto, orientuoto į aviacijos saugą, įtraukimą 2019 m.

 

    Kiti buvo reikalaujami pagal naująjį federalinį įstatymą, kuriuo siekiama pakeisti, kaip reguliavimo institucijos patvirtina naujus orlaivius, kaip saugius skristi su keleiviais, pavyzdžiui, papildomos apsaugos nuo vadovybės spaudimo Boeing darbuotojams, kurie veikia Federalinės aviacijos administracijos vardu.

 

    2021 m. teisinis susitarimas su akcininkais reikalauja, kad „Boeing“ pasamdytų ombudsmeną, kuris išspręstų reguliuotojams atstovaujančių darbuotojų problemas. P. Delaney sakė, kad netrukus bendrovė paskelbs apie savo pasirinkimą naujam vaidmeniui.“ [1]

 

Kad skrydžiai būtų saugūs, lėktuvų gamintojui turėtų vadovauti inžinieriai, o ne finansinių reikalų tvarkymo specialistai, vadovaujantys dabar. 

 

1. Business News: Boeing Sees Safer Planes From Changes
Tangel, Andrew. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 May 2022: B.3.

Boeing Sees Safer Planes From Changes

"EVERETT, Wash. -- Boeing Co.'s safety chief said changes under way at the plane maker following two deadly 737 MAX crashes should prevent engineers from designing another automated cockpit system without sufficient safeguards.

Mike Delaney, the company's chief aerospace safety officer, said the changes were part of a long-term push to improve how the plane maker addresses engineering and safety three years after the accidents.

As Boeing seeks to rally employees behind the safety push, Mr. Delaney said he didn't want the effort he leads to function like a commission into what went wrong in the run-up to the crashes.

"We're moving forward, fundamentally," said Mr. Delaney, who oversaw new commercial aircraft during the 737 MAX's development. "But I also know that you have to eventually look in the mirror and look back and say, 'Hey, what do we need to learn?' And we're getting to that point right now in the journey."

His comments came in a media briefing at company offices near Seattle on Monday, about efforts under way to improve Boeing's engineering and safety practices after the MAX crashes.

The accidents, in 2018 and 2019, killed 346 people. Investigators largely blamed a Boeing flight-control system for pushing the planes into fatal nosedives. The crashes exposed engineering and regulatory missteps, resulting in added safeguards for the automated cockpit feature known as MCAS, new pilot training and a re-examination of industry assumptions about how pilots respond to in-flight emergencies.

As Boeing looks to improve its safety culture, Mr. Delaney said the company will also examine issues raised by its development of the aircraft and its response to the accidents. Neither the company nor regulators moved to ground the jets until after a second 737 MAX crashed.

While he said he believed the design changes should prevent engineers from creating automated cockpit systems without enough safeguards, he pointed to broad efforts under way that aim to strengthen Boeing's overall safety culture.

Mr. Delaney and other executives said the company was putting in place new systems to manage safety risk, mine airline data for incipient operational problems and encourage employees to raise concerns about possible hazards.

They said they were working to integrate Boeing's new safety-management system with those of airlines to identify hazards and avoid accidents. They said the company is sharing more data with regulators and airlines around the world as well as developing new pilot training.

Some changes the Boeing executives highlighted Monday were initiated by the plane maker, including the reorganization of its engineering department and adding a board-level committee focused on aerospace safety in 2019.

Others have been required by new federal law aimed at overhauling how regulators certify new aircraft as safe to fly with passengers, such as added protections against management pressure on Boeing employees who act on behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration.

A 2021 legal settlement with shareholders required Boeing to hire an ombudsperson to address concerns of employees who represent the regulators. Mr. Delaney said the company was expected to announce its selection for the new role soon." [1]

 

 For flights to be safe, the aircraft manufacturer should be led by engineers, not financial professionals, who are in charge now.

 

1. Business News: Boeing Sees Safer Planes From Changes
Tangel, Andrew. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 May 2022: B.3.