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2023 m. spalio 2 d., pirmadienis

China Wields Hidden Power In Drone Conflict


"Surrounded by rooms filled with stacks of cluster munitions and half-made thermobaric bombs, a soldier from Ukraine's 92nd Mechanized Brigade recently worked on the final part of a deadly supply chain that stretches from China's factories to a basement five miles from the front lines of the conflict with Russia.

This is where Ukrainian soldiers turn hobbyist drones into combat weapons. At a cluttered desk, the soldier attached a modified battery to a quadcopter so it could fly farther. Pilots would later zip tie a homemade shell to the bottom and crash the gadgets into Russian trenches and tanks, turning the drones into human-guided missiles.

The aerial vehicles have been so effective at combat that most of the drone rotors and airframes that filled the basement workshop would be gone by the end of the week. Finding new supplies has become a full-time job.

"At night we do bombing missions, and during the day we think about how to get new drones," said Oles Maliarevych, 44, an officer in the 92nd Mechanized Brigade. "This is a constant quest."

More than any conflict in human history, the fighting in Ukraine is a conflict of drones. That means a growing reliance on suppliers of the flying vehicles -- specifically, China. While Iran and Turkey produce large, military-grade drones used by Russia and Ukraine, the cheap consumer drones that have become ubiquitous on the front line largely come from China, the world's biggest maker of those devices.

That has given China a hidden influence in a conflict that is waged partly with consumer electronics. As Ukrainians have looked at all varieties of drones and reconstituted them to become weapons, they have had to find new ways to keep up their supplies and to continue innovating on the devices.

Yet those efforts have faced more hurdles as Chinese suppliers have dialed back their sales, as new Chinese rules to restrict the export of drone components took effect on Sept. 1.

"We're examining every possible way to export drones from China, because whatever one may say, they produce the most there," said Mr. Maliarevych, who helps source drone supplies for his unit.

For the better part of a decade, Chinese companies such as DJI, EHang and Autel have churned out drones at an ever-increasing scale. They now produce millions of the aerial gadgets a year for amateur photographers, outdoor enthusiasts and professional videographers, far outpacing other countries. DJI, China's biggest drone maker, has a more than 90 percent share of the global consumer drone market, according to DroneAnalyst, a research group.

Yet in recent months, Chinese companies have cut back sales of drones and components to Ukrainians, according to a New York Times analysis of trade data and interviews with more than a dozen Ukrainian drone makers, pilots and trainers. The Chinese firms still willing to sell often require buyers to use complicated networks of intermediaries, similar to those Russia has used to get around American and European export controls.

Some Ukrainians have been forced to beg, borrow and smuggle what's needed to make up for the gadgets being blown out of the sky. Ukraine loses an estimated 10,000 drones a month, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a British security think tank. Many fear that China's new rules restricting the sale of drone components could worsen Ukrainian supply chain woes heading into the winter.

These hurdles widen an advantage for Russia. Direct drone shipments by Chinese companies to Ukraine totaled just over $200,000 this year through June, according to trade data. In that same period, Russia received at least $14.5 million in direct drone shipments from Chinese trading companies. Ukraine still obtained millions in Chinese-made drones and components, but most came from European intermediaries, according to official Russian and Ukrainian customs data from a third-party provider.

Ukrainians are working overtime to build as many drones as possible for reconnaissance, to drop bombs, and to use as guided missiles. The country has also earmarked $1 billion for a program that supports bootstrapping drone start-ups and other drone acquisition efforts.

Ukrainian soldiers, forced to become electronic tinkerers from the first days of the conflict, now must be amateur supply chain managers, too. Mr. Maliarevych recounted how members of his unit recently scrounged to buy new antennas for reconnaissance drones to prevent Russian radio jamming. One friend, who lives in Boston, brought back two on a trip.

"We have to reinvent more and more complicated supply chains," said Maria Berlinska, a longtime combat drone expert and the head of the Victory Drones project in Ukraine, which trains troops in the use of technology. "We have to convince Chinese factories to help us with components, because they are not happy to help us."

Winning the conflict has become "a technological marathon," she said.

A conflict of innovation

On a hot morning in August, two dozen Ukrainian soldiers from four units trained on a new weapon of conflict: a repurposed agricultural drone known as "the bat."

Flying over a cornfield outside the eastern city of Dnipro, the devices dropped bottles filled with sand onto tarps that served as targets. The soldiers later returned to their units across the front with the drones, which carry 20-kilogram shells that can be aimed at tanks.

The hulking rotor-powered bombers were made by Reactive Drone, a Ukrainian company that owes its existence to Chinese industrial policy. The firm was founded in 2017 by Oleksii Kolesnyk and his friends after Chinese subsidies led to a glut of drone components being made there. Mr. Kolesnyk took advantage of that to source parts for his own agricultural drones, which he then sold to farmers who used them to spray pesticides in eastern Ukraine.

When the conflict began, everything changed. Mr. Kolesnyk, who was in Romania for business, rushed back to his hometown, Dnipro. Within days, he and his team repurposed their agricultural drones for battle.

A similar frenzy took place across Ukraine. Ingenuity born of necessity pushed many to repurpose consumer technology in life-or-death scenarios. Drones emerged as the ultimate asymmetric weapon, dropping bombs and offering bird's-eye views of targets.

In the conflict's first weeks, Ukrainian soldiers relied on the Mavic, a quadcopter produced by DJI. With its strong radio link and easy-to-use controls, the Mavic became as important and ubiquitous as the Starlink satellites made by Elon Musk's SpaceX, which help soldiers communicate.

In April 2022, DJI said it would discontinue its business in Russia and Ukraine. The company shut its flagship stores in those countries, and halted most direct sales. 

Instead, volunteers backed by online fund-raisers brought in the copters by the thousands to Ukraine, often from Europe. 

Russia found new channels through friendly neighbors while continuing to receive the drones through Chinese exporters.

Russian and Ukrainian soldiers also began using non-drone DJI products, including one called AeroScope. An antenna-studded box, it can be set up on the ground to track drone locations by detecting the signals they send. The system's more dangerous feature is its ability to find the pilots who remotely fly DJI drones.

A rush ensued to hack DJI's software to disable the tracking feature. By the end of last year, a mix of softwaree workarounds and hardware fixes, such as more powerful antennas, had mostly solved the problem.

"The efficiency of the AeroScopes is not the same as it was a year ago," said Yurii Shchyhol, the head of Ukraine's State Special Communications Service, responsible for cybersecurity.

DJI's products continued to have a life-or-death impact on the front. Each time the company updated its software, pilots and engineers raced to break its security protections and modify it, sharing tips in group chats.

In an email, DJI said it has repeatedly notified its distributors that they were prohibited from selling products or parts to customers in Russia and Ukraine.

Now the biggest issue is the quantity of drones and production capacity. At Reactive Drone's facility in Dnipro, where technicians work on drones for the front line, Mr. Kolesnyk said he was getting components from China for now because of personal connections with Chinese factories. He has hit just one major snag -- when an online video of his drones caught the attention of the Chinese authorities and the company that made the camera, he used, publicly cut ties.

But Mr. Kolesnyk worried about the Chinese rule changes, which he said could make it harder to get the night-vision cameras needed for a new drone that would strike in the dark.

"Even when you see labels like America or Australia on a component, it's still all manufactured in China," he said. "To make something that could effectively replace China, it's really close to impossible."

'More like fishing than hunting'

As the conflict has stretched on, Ukrainian soldiers have worked to make cheap Chinese drones more deadly. One advancement that flooded the front this year: hobbyist racing drones strapped with bombs to act as human-guided missiles.

Known as F.P.V.s, for first-person view -- a reference to how the drones are remotely piloted with virtual-reality goggles -- the devices have emerged as a cheap alternative to heavy-duty weapons. The machines and their components are sold by a small number of mostly Chinese companies like DJI, Autel and RushFPV.

In eastern Ukraine, soldiers from the 92nd Mechanized Brigade recently tested an F.P.V. In a field near their workshop, a 19-year-old former medical student in the unit, who goes by the call sign Darwin, leaned against a truck and slipped on virtual-reality goggles. Nearby, his spotter, call sign Avocado, flew a DJI Mavic high above to guide him.

"People wish us luck with hunting, but this is more like fishing than hunting," Darwin said. "It can take a long time."

Tandems like Darwin and Avocado have become a regular feature of the conflict. Avocado, the Mavic pilot, gets a higher-altitude view so she can talk the F.P.V. pilot, Darwin, along the path to a target. With a virtual-reality headset, Darwin sees little more than the landscape speeding below him. Often he must fly eight kilometers or more by sight, evading Russian jammers. 

Successful missions, where a $500 F.P.V. takes out a $1 million weapon system, are trumpeted across social media. Yet less than one-third of attacks are successful, pilots said.

Far from the front, volunteers and companies work to acquire as many F.P.V.s as possible, with Ukrainian suppliers saying soldiers probably need as many as 30,000 a month. Ukraine's government has plans to secure 100,000 of the devices for the rest of the year, said Mr. Shchyhol, the Ukrainian official.

Ukrainians compete with Russians to buy F.P.V.s from Chinese firms that are willing to sell directly. Russians often have the advantage because they can bid higher and order larger batches. Selling to Russians is also politically safer for Chinese companies.

Escadrone, a Ukrainian drone supplier, has long sourced components from China to assemble the flying vehicles. The company's founder, who gave only his first name, Andrii, for fear of being targeted by Russia, said the profit incentives for Chinese companies lead them to sell to both sides.

"I have Chinese companies tell me they hate the Russians, Ukraine is the best," he said. "Then I see their engines on Russian drones, too."

A drone industry of its own

In an office building barricaded with sandbags, the man behind Ukraine's efforts to build a drone-industrial complex slid his phone. On it was a photo of the newest addition to a secretive Ukrainian program to strike deep inside Russia: a long-range drone with a pointy nose and swept wings.

"Yesterday the new Bober, modernized, flew to Moscow," said Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's digital minister, referring to a class of heavy kamikaze drone that had struck Moscow the day before.

All summer, the long-range drone program had terrorized Moscow. In an interview in August, Mr. Fedorov, 32, took credit.

He has led the effort to revamp Ukraine's military-technology base since late last year, using deregulation and state funding to build a remote-control strike force that the country can call its own. That includes helping fund the Bober program, as well as seeding a new generation of Ukrainian companies to build a drone fleet. Part of the idea is to diversify away from foreign suppliers like China.

"The state must create the best conditions, provide funding, so we will win the technological conflict against Russia," said Mr. Fedorov, whose Ministry of Digital Transformation is overseeing the government project to spend $1 billion on drones this year.

He acknowledged that some smaller companies faced issues from Chinese suppliers, but said that overall it had not been a major holdup.

"Of course, they are facing problems," he said. "But to say that there are some supercritical problems that prevent development -- there is no such thing."

Around Kyiv, the activity is palpable. Young companies are inventing homespun flying craft in hidden workshops. Ranges surrounded by fields of sunflowers and rapeseed are abuzz with new contraptions, which undergo a battery of tests before being cleared for the conflict.

The start-up spirit has its limits. Makers complain about small-scale contracts from the government, shortages of funds and a lack of planning. Skeptics said the government was running a high-risk experiment that business would come through in the lurch, even though there was no replacement for Chinese drones.

Replacing China as the source for drones like F.P.V.s and Mavics may be difficult, but tentative signs show Ukraine finding parts from Europe, the United States and others like Taiwan for some advanced drones.

Ukrspecsystems, a company in Kyiv that makes fixed-wing reconnaissance drones, said in a statement that supply chain issues with China had led it to look beyond the country.

"Today, we virtually do not use any Chinese components because we see and feel how China deliberately delays the delivery of any goods to Ukraine," it said." [1]

That billion dollars for the drones? That is  billion dollars given by the Americans. Those European intermediaries and volunteers buying the Chinese drones for Mr. Zelensky are hired by the American CIA. It is amazing how long the Chinese did go along with this activity. Good luck in trying to compete with Chinese drones using cellar production (Lith. sklepo darbas) methods. You guys, are idiots who do not know what mass production is. Today's conflicts are decided by people who have better mass production. What you do here is movies. Your fake presidentactor - Zelensky does not know anything better, so he allows this waste of precious American money.

1. China Wields Hidden Power In Drone Conflict: [Foreign Desk]. Mozur, Paul; Hopkins, Valerie.  New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 02 Oct 2023: A.1.


Kovos dėl Ukrainos finansavimo barškina JAV sąjungininkus --- Tarp vanagų susirūpinimas dėl Amerikos vaidmens pasaulyje auga po to, kai Kongrese nepasiekiama jokios pagalbos Kijevui

„JAV politinės kovos ir prezidento rinkimų kampanijos retorika meta šešėlį mūšio laukams Ukrainoje.

 

     Kijevas priklauso nuo JAV įrangos, mokymų ir žvalgybos. Prezidentas Bidenas vadovavo pasaulinei kampanijai, siekdamas sutelkti paramą Ukrainai ir įvesti sankcijas Rusijai.

 

     Dabar vis daugiau JAV politikų, daugiausia buvusio prezidento Donaldo Trumpo vadovaujami respublikonai, kritikuoja JAV paramą Ukrainai. Pagalba šaliai buvo pagrindinės Atstovų rūmų muštynės dėl sekmadienio vyriausybės uždarymo išvengimo.

 

     Tokie argumentai – ir Vašingtono pasitraukimo iš lyderio vaidmens – kelia JAV sąjungininkų-vanagų nerimą.

 

     Lietuvos užsienio reikalų ministras Gabrielius Landsbergis sakė, kad Vakarai kartu stojo prieš Rusiją dėl JAV lyderystės, tačiau, „norint laimėti, JAV lyderystės poreikis yra dar didesnis, ypač karinės pagalbos apimties ir greičio atžvilgiu“.

 

     Europos pareigūnai tvirtina, kad nesutarimas tarp Vakarų sąjungininkų būtų naudingas Rusijos prezidentui Vladimirui Putinui, jei tai leistų jam išlikti ilgiau, nei Vakarai. „Visi daug investavome ir dabar privalome baigti darbą užtikrindami Ukrainos pergalę“, – sakė G. Landsbergis.

 

     Ukrainos ambasadorė Šiaurės Atlanto sutarties organizacijoje Natalija Galibarenko sakė, kad jos vyriausybė stebi įvykius Vašingtone ir kol kas nemato jokių pagalbos pokyčių.

 

     Nors ginkluotės tiekimas dabar yra stabilus, Ukraina ir kitos JAV sąjungininkės yra susirūpinusios dėl politinių tendencijų. „Wall Street Journal“ rugpjūtį atlikta apklausa parodė, kad 62% respublikonų rinkėjų manė, kad JAV daro per daug, kad palaikytų Ukrainą, o balandį – 56%.

 

     Dėl didelių proukrainiečių įstatymų leidėjų nesėkmės Kongresas neįtraukė jokios pagalbos Ukrainai į šeštadienį priimtą trumpalaikių išlaidų įstatymo projektą, o Atstovų Rūmai ir Senatas stengėsi išvengti dalinio vyriausybės uždarymo sekmadienį.

 

     Senato daugumos lyderis Chuckas Schumeris (D., N.Y.) ir GOP lyderis Mitchas McConnellas iš Kentukio siekė įtraukti 6 milijardus dolerių Ukrainai į sustojimo įstatymą, bet atsisakė šių pastangų po to, kai Atstovų Rūmai balsavo už versiją be jokios pagalbos.

 

     Schumeris sakė, kad jis ir McConnell susitarė toliau kovoti dėl didesnės ekonominės ir saugumo pagalbos šaliai. „Mes palaikome Ukrainos pastangas apginti suverenitetą nuo agresijos“, – sakė M. Schumeris.

 

     McConnell sakė: „Esu įsitikinęs, kad Senatas vėliau šiais metais suteiks Ukrainai tolesnę pagalbą“.

 

     Baltųjų rūmų pareigūnas šeštadienį pareiškė, kad nors Gynybos departamentas išnaudojo didžiąją dalį savo saugumo paramos Ukrainai finansavimo, pagal prezidento įgaliojimą yra pakankamai lėšų, kad būtų galima patenkinti Ukrainos mūšio lauko poreikius dar ilgiau.

 

     „Netrukus turėsime kitą PDA įprastu ritmu“, – sakė pareigūnas. „Tačiau mums reikės, kad netrukus būtų priimtas Ukrainos finansavimo įstatymas, ir būtina, kad pirmininkas [Kevinas] McCarthy laikytųsi savo įsipareigojimo Ukrainos žmonėms užtikrinti, kad tai įvyktų“.

 

     Naujausi Atstovų Rūmų finansavimo balsavimai rodo platų abiejų partijų pritarimą pagalbai Ukrainai – 311 parlamentarų 433 narių Atstovų Rūmuose praėjusią savaitę balsavo už priemonę, pagal kurią būtų skirta 300 mln. dolerių. bet respublikonų, kurie yra prieš Ukrainą, skaičius sudaro daugiau, nei pusę respublikonų konferencijos.

 

     Trečiadienį per respublikonų prezidento rinkimų pirminius debatus nuomonės dėl Ukrainos išsiskyrė. „Mes varome Rusiją dar labiau į Kinijos glėbį“, – sakė biotechnologijų investuotojas ir verslininkas Vivekas Ramaswamy, kuris nepritaria tolesnei pagalbai Ukrainai. Buvęs viceprezidentas Mike'as Pence'as paprieštaravo: „Jei leisite Putinui turėti Ukrainą, tai bus žalia šviesa Kinijai užimti Taivaną“.

 

     Trumpas, kandidatas į Respublikonų partijos prezidento kandidatūrą, pareiškė norintis užbaigti konfliktą.

 

     „Ukraina nepralaimės tol, kol Amerika liks įsipareigojusi savo gynybai“, – sakė į pensiją išėjęs JAV armijos pulkininkas leitenantas Johnas Naglas, dėstantis kovas JAV armijos karo koledže. „Ukraina dabar susiduria su didžiausia grėsme ne iš Rusijos, o dėl politinės disfunkcijos Vašingtone“.

 

     Bideno administracijos pareigūnai teigė, kad pagrindinis jų užsienio politikos aspektas yra atsparios ekonomikos ir stabilios politinės sistemos panaudojimas namuose, siekiant atremti Rusijos ir Kinijos įtaką.

 

     Kongreso aklavietės ir muštynės dėl 2024 m. prezidento rinkimų gali leisti tarptautiniams varžovams nupiešti labai skirtingą JAV vaizdą.

 

     Neseniai Jungtinių Tautų Generalinės Asamblėjos kuluaruose diplomatai iš šalių, kurios laukia JAV lyderystės, teigė nerimaujantys, kad vidaus spaudimas verčia Bideną atsitraukti nuo visos paramos Ukrainos kovai.

 

     Sąjungininkų rūpestis neapsiriboja noru, kad Kijevas vyrautų. Didesnis nerimas yra tas, kad jei JAV – metė didelį politinį ir karinį svorį už Ukrainos – ir neatsiranda iš laimėtojų pusės, jos patikimumas ir įtikinėjimo galia patirs didelę žalą su pasauliniais padariniais.

 

     Tikėjimą JAV atsidavimu sąjungininkams ir tarptautiniams įsipareigojimams pastaraisiais metais sukrėtė jos chaotiškas pasitraukimas iš Afganistano, grasinimai išstoti iš NATO ir keli kiti staigūs JAV užsienio politikos pokyčiai.

 

     Neaiškumas dėl Vašingtono įsipareigojimų Ukrainai auga, nepaisant to, kad Kongresas nuo įvykių Ukrainoje patvirtino daugiau nei 100 mlrd. dolerių karinės, ekonominės ir humanitarinės pagalbos.

 

     Pastarosiomis dienomis į Ukrainą pradėjo atvykti amerikiečių tankai M1 Abrams – vieni pažangiausių pasaulyje. Demokratas Bidenas pažadėjo Ukrainos prezidentui Volodymyrui Zelenskiui pristatyti nedidelį kiekį tolimojo nuotolio ATACMS raketų, kurių jis ne kartą prašė.

 

     JAV karinė pagalba padėjo Kijevui šiaip taip išlaikyti dalį teritorijos. Vakarų pagalba padėjo gerokai pažeminti Rusijos kariuomenę, antrąją pagal dydį pasaulyje, kuri prieš įvykius puikavosi puikia reputacija.

 

     Vis dėlto sąjungininkai nerimauja, kad dabartinės JAV karinės pagalbos nepakanka, kad Ukraina nugalėtų ir išstumtų Rusijos pajėgas, užimančias maždaug 20% jos šalies.

 

     Tarp niūresnių scenarijų, kuriuos diplomatai ekstrapoliuoja iš naujausių tendencijų, yra pasaulis, kuriame Vašingtonas stengiasi įtikinti arba priversti kitas šalis jį paremti. Kai kurie jau mato to požymius.

 

     „Deja, dabartinė nestabilumo banga, plintanti po visą pasaulį, rodo, kad mūsų veiksmai gali būti vertinami nepakankamai įtikinančiai“, – sakė lietuvis G. Landsbergis, vardydamas konfliktus Afrikos Sahelio regione, Pietų Kaukaze ir Vakarų Balkanuose.

 

     Tolesnė JAV pasaulinės įtakos erozija galiausiai pakenktų taisyklėmis pagrįstai tarptautinei tvarkai, kurią Vašingtonas praleido ilgus metus ir didžiulį politinį kapitalą, kurdamas  po Antrojo pasaulinio karo." [1]

 

1. Funding Fight Over Ukraine Rattles U.S. Allies --- Worry over America's role in world grows after deal in Congress lacks any aid for Kyiv. Michaels, Daniel.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 Oct 2023: A.1.

Funding Fight Over Ukraine Rattles U.S. Allies --- Worry over America's role in world grows after deal in Congress lacks any aid for Kyiv.

 

"U.S. political fights and presidential-election campaign rhetoric are casting a shadow over battlefields in Ukraine.

Kyiv depends on U.S. equipment, training and intelligence. President Biden has led a global campaign to rally support for Ukraine and to impose sanctions on Russia.

Now a growing number of U.S. politicians, mainly Republicans led by former President Donald Trump, are criticizing U.S. backing for Ukraine. Aid to the country has been a focal point in House fights over averting a government shutdown on Sunday.

Such arguments -- and the prospect of Washington stepping back from its leadership role -- are prompting unease among U.S. allies.

The West has stood together against Russia because of U.S. leadership, said Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis of Lithuania, but "in order to win, the demand for U.S. leadership is even greater, especially in the scope and speed of military assistance."

A rift among Western allies would benefit President Vladimir Putin of Russia, European officials argue, if it allows him to outlast the West. "We have all invested a lot and must finish the job now by ensuring Ukraine's victory," Landsbergis said.

Ukraine's ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Nataliia Galibarenko, said her government is monitoring developments in Washington and so far doesn't see any change in assistance.

While armament deliveries are steady now, Ukraine and other U.S. allies are concerned by political trends. A Wall Street Journal poll in August found that 62% of Republican voters thought the U.S. was doing too much to support Ukraine, up from 56% in April.

In a major setback for pro-Ukraine lawmakers, Congress didn't include any Ukraine aid in a short-term spending bill that passed on Saturday, as the House and Senate raced to avert a partial government shutdown on Sunday.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and GOP Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky had been pushing to include $6 billion for Ukraine in the stopgap legislation, but dropped that effort after the House voted for a version without any aid in it.

Schumer said he and McConnell have agreed to continue fighting for more economic and security assistance for the country. "We support Ukraine's efforts to defend sovereignty against aggression," Schumer said.

McConnell said: "I'm confident the Senate will pass further assistance to Ukraine later this year."

A White House official said on Saturday that while the Defense Department has exhausted much of its security-assistance funding for Ukraine, there is enough funding under the presidential drawdown authority available to meet Ukraine's battlefield needs for a bit longer.

"We will have another PDA soon on the normal cadence," the official said. "However, we will need a Ukraine funding bill to pass soon and it's imperative that Speaker [Kevin] McCarthy keep his commitment to the people of Ukraine to ensure that happens."

Recent House funding votes show broad bipartisan support for Ukraine aid -- 311 lawmakers in the 433-member House voted last week to pass a measure appropriating $300 million in security assistance for the embattled country -- but the number of Republicans opposed is growing and now makes up more than half the GOP conference.

During the Republican presidential primary debate on Wednesday, views on Ukraine were split. "We're driving Russia further into China's arms," said biotech investor and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who opposes further aid to Ukraine. Former Vice President Mike Pence countered: "If you let Putin have Ukraine, that's a green light to China to take Taiwan."

Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, has said he wants to end the conflict.

"Ukraine will not lose as long as America remains committed to its defense," said John Nagl, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who teaches fighting at the U.S. Army War College. "Ukraine faces its biggest threat now not from Russia but from political dysfunction in Washington."

Biden administration officials said a central aspect of their foreign policy is harnessing a resilient economy and stable political system at home to counter the influence of Russia and China.

Congressional deadlocks and fights around the 2024 presidential election could allow international rivals to paint a very different picture of the U.S.

On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly recently, diplomats from countries that look to the U.S. for leadership said they worry that domestic pressures are prompting Biden to pull back from wholehearted support for Ukraine's fight.

Allies' concern goes beyond wanting Kyiv to prevail. The deeper anxiety is that if the U.S. -- having thrown significant political and military weight behind Ukraine -- doesn't emerge on the winning side, its credibility and power of persuasion will suffer grave damage with global consequences.

Faith in U.S. dedication to its allies and its international pledges has been shaken in recent years by its chaotic exit from Afghanistan, threats to quit NATO and several other sharp shifts in U.S. foreign policy.

Uncertainty about Washington's commitment to Ukraine is rising despite Congress having approved more than $100 billion in military, economic and humanitarian assistance since the events in Ukraine started.

In recent days, American M1 Abrams tanks -- among the world's most advanced -- have started arriving in Ukraine. Biden, a Democrat, has promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyto deliver a small number of long-range ATACMS missiles, which he had requested repeatedly.

US military aid helped Kiev to retain part of the territory. Western assistance has helped significantly degrade Russia's military, the world's second-largest, which boasted a formidable reputation before the events.

Still, allies worry that current U.S. military assistance isn't sufficient for Ukraine to defeat and eject Russian forces occupying roughly 20% of its country.

Among the gloomier scenarios that diplomats are extrapolating from recent trends is a world where Washington struggles to cajole or compel other countries to back it. Some see signs of that already.

"Unfortunately, the current wave of instability spreading around the globe shows that our actions might not be seen as sufficiently persuasive," Lithuania's Landsbergis said, citing conflicts in the Sahel region of Africa, the South Caucasus and the Western Balkans.

A further erosion of U.S. global sway would ultimately undermine the rules-based international order, which Washington spent years and vast political capital building after the Second World War." [1]

1. Funding Fight Over Ukraine Rattles U.S. Allies --- Worry over America's role in world grows after deal in Congress lacks any aid for Kyiv. Michaels, Daniel.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 Oct 2023: A.1.