Landsbergis and other instigators of the Third World War: Zelenskiy, who wants to include Vilnius in the investigation of the missile in Poland, is looking for support

 "As Kyiv denies its responsibility for the incident in Poland and seeks to include Lithuania in the investigation, political scientists say that this is how Ukraine is looking for allies in the West who can defend its position.

 

    "Ukrainians believe that Lithuania will see the situation similarly to Ukraine. (...) I see a lot of risks and I don't really know what the benefits would be. Unless our engineers know something that Americans or Poles don't. But for now it would be hard to believe," Mariusz Antonowiczius, a lecturer at Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI), told BNS on Thursday.

 

    He spoke this way after Lithuania received a note from Ukraine, in which Vilnius is offered to join the ongoing investigation in Poland regarding a rocket that fell on the border and killed two people.

 

    According to Kyiv, Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland could participate in the international investigation, as well as the United States, the latter two of which are currently conducting their own investigation.

 

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said on Thursday that he had received confirmation that Ukrainian specialists would participate in the investigation.

 

    According to a CNN source in the Ukrainian president's office, Ukrainian investigators have already arrived at the site in Poland where the missile landed on Tuesday.

 

    According to experts, Ukraine's attempt to participate in the investigation by including Lithuania may have a more negative impact on Kyiv itself, as there are risks that such actions will be understood as dividing unity.

 

    "It's risky what they're doing right now. (...) The desire to include more countries that are completely unrelated to the case raises the question of who needs it. It seems to me that this can be understood as a lack of trust in the parties investigating the incident," TSPMI professor Dovilė Jakniūnaitė said to BNS.

 

    "Here is a matter of expertise. Do you really need an additional one? Is the expertise of Americans and Poles not enough?" she added.

 

    Political scientists also see the risks that Ukrainians' assessment of the missile, which is contrary to NATO's position, may reduce the desire of the West to support Ukraine and inflame the sentiment of a part of the public that this is an attempt to involve the NATO in the Third World War.

 

    "Instinctive Anxiety"

 

    After the first reports about the missile that fell in Poland on Tuesday, the reactions of the Western leaders were rather restrained. They expressed full support for Warsaw, but did not immediately rush to blame Moscow.

 

    At that time, Kyiv immediately declared that it was a Russian missile.

 

    At the time, Western countries claim that preliminary data indicate that the missile was launched by Ukrainian forces defending against Kremlin attacks and then accidentally strayed into a neighboring country.

 

    “I think they rushed it on a day when everyone was very obviously very cautious. It was favorable for the Ukrainians to have the idea that it was a Russian missile," said D. Jakniūnaitė.

 

    This position, she said, was driven by an "instinctive worry" that a confession might reduce support. However, she does not rule out the possibility that Kyiv has information that is not available to partners.

 

    "Either they have information they're not providing for some reason, or they don't want to back away from their narrative and remain a clear victim." It is, let's face it, favorable for them. I don't know why Ukraine thinks that it is more favorable to destroy this consistent Western narrative than to adapt to it. This is a big uncertainty," said the political scientist.

 

    "I think one of their fears is to lose control of the narrative about themselves," she added.

 

    "More negative consequences"

 

    For his part, M. Antonowicz emphasizes that Ukraine is simply afraid to admit that "somewhere there was a mistake or something did not work".

 

    "I can understand why Ukraine is behaving like this. Zelensky is afraid that because of this, the reluctance of some political forces to give more weapons will become active, they will say that if the Ukrainians are shooting at us, why should we help them," said the political scientist.

 

    "They are afraid that if this narrative takes root that there was a Ukrainian missile here, the consequences will be much worse. And if the narrative that there is a Russian missile takes hold, then the only response would be to give Ukraine even more weapons, perhaps to establish a no-fly zone on the border of Ukraine," he added.

 

    The political scientist emphasized that such inflexibility and categorical position of Ukraine can be exploited by the Kremlin's propaganda in order to show Kyiv as the instigator of a bigger war.

 

    "With such a position, he is harming himself. It also harms the coalition supporting Ukraine in the West and beyond," said M. Antonowicz.

 

    After Ukraine invited Vilnius to get involved in the investigation of the missile that landed in Poland, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated that he supports such an idea.

 

    However, political scientists view this position of the head of Lithuanian diplomacy with skepticism.

 

    "Considering the trust between Lithuania and Ukraine, Lithuania could play such a non-public role and convey the message that such a position can in turn lead to more negative consequences," said M. Antonowiczius."