"The money
will leave our country, and we will only have problems. Nothing new. Especially
since a recession has already been officially announced and the beginning of a
crisis is possible. About what our future is and what plan we will follow when
we get out of the hole, only the lazy and the Minister of Economy and
Innovation did not say. When we're already on our way to space, it's probably
not a good idea to talk about trivial matters.
As ELTA reports,
in the dispute over cheap grain from Ukraine, the European Commission, under
pressure from several EU countries, restricted the import of some Ukrainian
products. Until June 5, Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia will
not be able to freely trade in Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower,
the European Commission announced on Tuesday evening. However, this production
will continue to be able to be transported through the mentioned countries, for
example, to other EU countries.
The EU has
already allocated 100 million EUR support for the farmers of the border
countries suffering due to cheap Ukrainian grain.
For a long time,
European farmers had difficulties because they could not compete with Ukrainian
eggs and poultry.
We will not be
able to compete with the Ukrainians in terms of cheap energy resources - even
during the conflict they export electricity, because they have enough nuclear power
plants, which, it seems, they will not replace with solar and wind power
plants.
What we will face
is briefly described by the president of the Lithuanian Grain Growers
Association, Aušrys Macijauskas, who himself has been to Ukraine several times
and communicated with local farmers:
"There are
large farms from 5 to 10 thousand hectares. I talked to ordinary farmers, they name
them as the most optimal farms. Larger ones are already difficult to maintain.
The land has not been sold so far. It was distributed to former kolkhoz workers, but not split. The man only knew that there was his plot in the
area of several thousand hectares, but he did not know where.
When we told them
that our land ownership is limited to 500 ha, they were surprised. There, a
farm the size of our three-hectare farm is not considered a farmer. Usually a
person has a job and then takes care of his several hundred hectares. A real
farmer, who lives from this, manages from 3 thousand hectares.
In terms of
productivity, they practically do not use fertilizers and thresh depending on
the amount of rainfall. This is how 5 tons of wheat grows. Using new
technologies, it is easy to increase this amount to 10-12 tons."
Our next steps
are very clear. At the beginning - an active invasion of Warsaw by our
diplomatic corps. Yes, not to the capital of Taiwan or Brussels, but precisely
to the capital of Poland, so that we would lay the railway tracks and through
this country the trains from Ukraine would move towards the suffocating port of
Klaipėda. Not only with grains. The goods are many and varied, and even a
solution that is not very convenient for logistics, if we are talking about
cheap products (grains that are transported from Ukraine to be sold in Africa),
can be perfectly suitable for other goods. The Black Sea is likely to be a
rather complicated body of water for a long time to come.
The goal is to
get out of the logistical vacuum ourselves.
Another simple question
with a very simple answer, which has been known for decades: where to put raw
products - milk semi-finished products and cereals, because we have nothing
more to offer to the world markets. We have not yet developed "real"
products with high added value.
It is likely that
we will not create factories of the level of "Danone", which would
sell yogurts at a particularly high price, but with state subsidies (let's not
be naive that international concerns will jump out of love for Lithuania's
perennial meadows, where cows graze) we can attract one other large
processor - an international concern with clear markets.
Same with grain
processing companies. Their construction projects are several, and it is
encouraging. If the crisis does not wipe out these startups, there will be
prospects to export not only grain, but to load much more interesting products
on ships.
If you noticed -
not a word about cooperation. Farmer cooperatives are good and to be welcomed,
but this is our internal problem. The structure of our primary agricultural
production is such that cooperatives will not save without factories working in
international markets.
We are not Germans or Poles, most of whom work for the
local market and can rely on loyal local consumers and try to keep out foreign
manufacturers by legal and illegal means. We are those foreign manufacturers
that everyone shakes off like the devil at the cross, and that must be understood.
In addition, we
will never produce at the same price as Ukrainians or Brazilians, where energy
is cheap, the climate is favorable, and farmers have only read about
super-mega-strict environmental requirements and animal welfare on news
portals, in the "foreign news" section. This is neither good nor bad.
It's just that their cost is much lower, and no robots will allow us to make up
this difference.
As I mentioned,
the only way out for now is to turn on your own brain. Namely own, instead of
relying on foreign consultants and waiting for the conclusions of newly baked
artificial intelligence. Otherwise, the changes will be fast and very
unpleasant.
If you don't
believe it, compare grain prices today and a year ago."
Transportation via the Black Sea will always be much cheaper
than by rail. That transportation from Ukraine by sea is happening even now, it
will continue no matter what. We will put money into the railway, which will
stand idle.
The quality of our grain is poor because the soils are poor.
Therefore, we will not make anything very tasty, we are trying unnecessarily.
If you are the last to leave Lithuania, don't forget to turn off the
electricity.
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