Booming Market In Truck Biofuels Faces EPA Curbs.

"U.S. regulators spawned a booming industry for low-carbon trucking fuel. A new federal rule could hit the brakes on its growth.

The Environmental Protection Agency last week laid out mandated volumes for biofuels in coming years that fell short of industry expectations, raising fears the production capacity that companies were scrambling to build up would be left in a lurch. Shares of Darling Ingredients, the country's largest renewable-diesel producer through a joint venture, fell as much as 8%. Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge, which produce renewable-diesel feedstocks, also slipped on the news.

Analysts say the EPA's surprisingly modest blending requirements for trucking fuel could upend a raft of projects that were expected to more than double production capacity of renewable diesel. Along with biodiesel, renewable diesel is made from plant oils and animal fats and adds less carbon to the atmosphere than crude oil.

Among the projects are plans for more than 20 new or expanded crushing plants for soybean oil -- a rapidly growing input for renewable diesel -- that would dial up the country's crushing capacity by more than 30%, according to the American Soybean Association. Soybean oil futures fell 7% the day of the EPA's announcement.

"The first victim of this will be the expansion of crush across the Midwest," said Matt Herman, senior director of renewable products marketing for the Iowa Soybean Association.

Cargill put on hold plans for a new crush plant in southeast Missouri shortly after the EPA signaled its plans on volume mandates in December. The company cited "shifting market dynamics" for the pause.

Underpinning the industry's growth plans for renewable diesel are tradable credits that can be used to meet the EPA requirements for lower-carbon fuels. Companies that exceed their quotas earn credits, which can be sold to others that need to satisfy theirs. The credits account for a chunk of the government subsidies for renewable diesel production, which have at times added up to more than $5 a gallon.

The value of those credits could collapse if supply of renewable diesel and biodiesel overwhelms the demand implied by the EPA mandates, said Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He estimated that threshold to be about four billion gallons a year.

The country's current rate of production is just below that number, according to Energy Information Administration data for March, the most recent month for which figures are available. The agency estimates the rate will exceed 4.3 billion gallons a year by December and surpass five billion gallons annually by next summer.

Projects to increase renewable-diesel production include two refinery conversions in California's Bay Area.

One by Phillips 66 is scheduled to come online next year and eventually produce more than 700 million gallons annually. Another by a joint venture between Marathon Petroleum and Neste would more than double production capacity to 730 million gallons by December. Both companies said their plans haven't changed since the EPA rule.

Planned and in-progress projects could take annual production capacity to more than eight billion gallons over the next few years.

That is far higher than the EPA mandates of 2.82 billion gallons of biofuel blending for this year, rising to 3.35 billion gallons in 2025.

The EPA is trying to balance carbon-emission goals with other concerns, such as the impact on food prices of using vegetable oils for fuel.

Some analysts don't think the EPA's modest increases for low-carbon fuel levels will alter renewable diesel's growth trajectory. In a note after the EPA decision, Goldman Sachs said the drop in Darling Ingredients shares was a buying opportunity and recommended shares of agricultural giants Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge. Goldman said exports to countries with low-carbon fuel policies will help keep the market from tipping into a perilous surplus. California also issues tradable credits for renewable fuel, the value of which is expected to rise with a program update early next year.

Still, the EPA decision could jeopardize the dozens of small companies scattered across the country that produce biodiesel, which has been falling out of favor because it can't serve as a drop-in replacement for conventional trucking fuel the way renewable diesel can.

"There's going to be a market," said Brad Wilson, president of Western Iowa Energy, a biodiesel producer based in Iowa that is upgrading its facility. "It's just going to be who can compete and be a low enough cost producer to stay in it."" [1]

1.  Booming Market In Truck Biofuels Faces EPA Curbs. Henderson, Bob. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 26 June 2023: B.1.