NATO Allies Split on Membership Path For Ukraine, Fearing an Escalation of Conflict.

"BRUSSELS -- Ukraine and its allies in the country's conflict with Russia are fighting among themselves about how explicitly to mark out Kyiv's future path to NATO membership.

Differences about how much alliance members will pledge to Ukraine at their coming summit are so wide that some diplomats fear the dispute will overshadow the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's annual meeting. NATO has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to attend the two-day gathering in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11, hoping for a robust show of unity.

Some allies fear that a specific membership pledge to Ukraine could escalate the conflict by angering Russia and reduce the political space for a negotiated settlement. The Biden administration has long resisted any move that could lead Washington and its European allies into a direct conflict with Russia.

NATO leaders will gather against the background of a Ukrainian offensive that is proving slower and bloodier in dislodging Russian troops than Kyiv's more optimistic supporters had hoped. Ukrainian forces' struggles against Russian land mines and attack helicopters have raised questions of whether NATO members have done enough to support Kyiv militarily. Explicit political support in Vilnius might offset that, while a statement that Ukrainians see as hollow rhetoric could further hurt relations.

The gap between views on Ukraine has stalled work on drafting summit conclusions, say diplomats, and some see little potential for compromise on the core issues. Others say it isn't unusual to see divergence three weeks out from a NATO summit and that the consensus-driven alliance will strike a compromise when leaders assemble in Vilnius.

NATO members at a 2008 summit in Bucharest, Romania, promised Ukraine eventual membership, a pledge advocated most fervently by the U.S. Amid European opposition to the move, NATO gave Ukraine no timeline or specifics for joining.

The U.S. has swung to putting the brakes on Ukraine's alliance integration while conflict with Russia rages, prompting some allies to fear a rift at the summit. Ukrainian officials have warned the Lithuanian hosts that with the offensive moving painfully, Zelensky can't afford to attend a NATO summit where, like in Bucharest, Kyiv is kept at arm's length, and so he may stay away.

Zelensky recently told The Wall Street Journal that he sees "no point for Ukraine to be at this summit" if it doesn't get the signal it seeks.

Alliance members agree that Ukraine won't join as long as the conflict with Russia continues, and Zelensky has publicly acknowledged that. Debates are focused instead on how long after the conflict Ukraine might join, and whether to offer detailed, achievable criteria for Kyiv to qualify.

Ukraine has pushed for specifics on timing and milestones.

The U.S., Germany and some other NATO members have said that rather than debating hypothetical future conditions, efforts are better spent ensuring that Ukraine succeeds in defeating Russian forces.

"We have the Bucharest decision," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin on Monday. "We need to focus on the task at hand. We need to support Ukraine to defend its country, its integrity and sovereignty."

Ultimately, diplomats say, the U.S., as the alliance's most powerful member, will be the arbiter of what to offer Ukraine. European diplomats involved in negotiations say they have received mixed messages from Washington over the Biden administration's flexibility to move much beyond the Bucharest formula.

One compromise under discussion is eliminating Ukraine's need for a Membership Action Plan, a program of assistance and practical support that NATO provides aspiring members with less-developed political systems and economies.

Whether waiving the need for a MAP would satisfy Zelensky remains unclear.

Members who are hesitant about giving Kyiv explicit promises on membership are instead proposing what some refer to as "Bucharest-plus," or wording that enhances the 2008 pledge." [1]

1. World News: NATO Allies Split on Membership Path For Ukraine, Fearing an Escalation of Conflict. Norman, Laurence; Michaels, Daniel. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 24 June 2023: A.7.