"If you look at Silicon Valley, you quickly notice that Trump
is enjoying unusual popularity there, especially during the election campaign.
The technology stronghold in liberal California has actually long been turning
its votes and, more importantly, its wallets to the Democrats. But Trump is
currently able to gain important and public support there. Not only his vice
presidential candidate J. D. Vance, who worked there as an investor, is
helping, but also Trump's election program.
Compared to the election campaigns in 2016 and 2020, his
offer to the powerful founders and investors is much more mature.
A Trump
election victory would mean a radically different course in artificial
intelligence, competition policy and the regulation of social media.
Deregulation and investment in AI
In Silicon Valley, a lot is currently revolving around
artificial intelligence.
Trump is offering his concrete ideas with which he
wants to increase the lead over Europe and China.
According to his election program, Trump would first abolish
the Biden administration's government order on AI. The order obliges AI
developers to comply with rules and carry out tests to prove the fairness and
safety of AI models. It is significantly less complex and time-consuming than
the European AI Act. Nevertheless, smaller AI companies in particular complain
that the additional bureaucratic burden and legal uncertainty give their large
competitors an advantage.
Trump described the regulation as an obstacle to
growth. A position that is met with a lot of support in Silicon Valley.
But Trump promises the AI industry even further growth. On
the one hand, he promises to reduce electricity prices to make the development
and operation of artificial intelligence cheaper.
In addition, a team of his
advisers has proposed large direct investments in AI by the Department of
Defense.
The aim is to enable military applications of AI and to beat China in
research. As a consequence, however, parts of the AI industry would belong to
the defense industry - also with the associated export restrictions. Even
allies such as Germany could only be offered second or third-class models,
while the best would be reserved for America.
With regulation, investments and electricity prices, Trump
is tackling issues in which Silicon Valley already sees Europe as
uncompetitive. A Trump administration would probably extend the US lead in AI.
Loose competition policy
Trump's announcements of a looser competition policy are
particularly popular in Silicon Valley. This would also have an impact on
European consumers. This is because large American companies such as Google,
Apple and Meta already dominate the European market. They are relatively
relaxed about European attempts at regulation. For them, the only decisive
factor is the strictness and enforcement of American competition policy. Biden
had tightened this and also initiated antitrust proceedings against large
platforms.
Trump, on the other hand, promises to bring corporate
representatives to the top of his competition authorities. It is also
predictable that more mergers and acquisitions will be allowed again than Biden
allowed.
But it is not only a departure from Biden's policy, but also from
Trump's first term in office, when he was critical of Silicon Valley. This
change of heart is mainly due to Trump's better relationship with major
investors in the tech industry. It is precisely these personal relationships
that make the implementation of his digital policy promises more likely.
Although Trump often makes contradictory promises without implementing them, he
is consistent in rewarding his supporters.
Culture war on platforms
Trump has long felt unfairly treated by social media
moderators. He was even blocked on Facebook and Twitter. Here, however, Silicon
Valley seems to have moved closer to Trump: Twitter is now called X and belongs
to the outspoken Trump supporter Elon Musk, who has reduced moderation and is
considered an influential advisor to Trump. But Mark Zuckerberg, the head of
Meta, is also now expressing admiration for Trump and criticizing his own cooperation
with the Biden administration in combating disinformation about Corona before
the US Congress.
A Trump administration would accelerate these trends. Trump
has already announced that he will relax or abolish the rules surrounding
disinformation and hate speech. This will also have a direct impact on Europe.
The European Union can try to enforce its rules, but cannot hope for America's
support. Especially when a Trump confidant like Musk gets into legal conflict
with the European Union, it could
quickly become political.
With his digital policy, Trump is presenting a surprisingly
consistent package of measures. Its implementation seems to be a priority and
would probably take place early in a new term in office. Europe should be aware
of this reality in order to prepare for times of less cooperation and tougher
competition."
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