“Ahead of a 2024 Israeli offensive in Rafah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that the city in southern Gaza was the last bastion of Hamas, and "victory is within reach."
More than a year and a half later, the prime minister is once again predicting the war will be near its end if Israel captures Gaza City, the enclave's capital and what he says is Hamas's "last important stronghold."
Israel carried out an audacious strike on the group's political leaders in Qatar on Tuesday, but achieving Netanyahu's goal of wiping out Hamas will require defeating its military leaders in Gaza. His statements underscore the difficulties the Israeli military has faced in trying to completely destroy an insurgency.
Israel has weakened Hamas throughout the enclave, but a total defeat of the group remains elusive. Its military has been playing a game of whack-a-mole across Gaza: defeating Hamas in one neighborhood, only to see fighters pop back up and establish themselves someplace else.
Hamas has said Israel missed its top targets in Tuesday's strike. Israel has said it is still studying the result of the strikes, and some ministers have acknowledged the possibility that it wasn't successful. The strike, at least for now, has derailed any efforts toward ending the conflict at the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, Israel's military says it has taken operational control of over 40% of Gaza City and struck 360 targets there, including several high-rises it says were being used by Hamas for militant activities. But Israel has made similar military advances before, including in Gaza City at the start of the war, only for Hamas to re-emerge elsewhere.
In part, the repetitive battles stem from the nature of guerrilla warfare. Hamas fighters often flee with the population as the Israeli military approaches, leaving behind a smaller group that tries to inflict damage on Israeli forces, even if they can't defeat them.
But critics of the Israeli approach say part of the problem is that Netanyahu hasn't been willing to install alternative Palestinian authorities in areas of Gaza where Israeli forces have pushed Hamas out. Doing so would help prevent Hamas from re-establishing control, they say.
Netanyahu has opposed having the Palestinian Authority retake control of Gaza, arguing the internationally recognized Palestinian government in the West Bank is too weak to take over and is supportive of terrorism. He says he wants local Gazans unaffiliated with Hamas to manage the strip, but has yet to identify who they could be.
This week, Israel issued evacuation warnings to the estimated one million people still living there. Israel says it has set up new safe areas for those displaced from Gaza City. The United Nations and aid groups have warned the new infrastructure won't meet basic humanitarian needs, and Hamas is telling civilians not to evacuate.
Top Israeli security officials, including the military chief of staff and the head of the Mossad spy agency, have raised concerns about the operation and want Netanyahu to go for a temporary cease-fire.
Netanyahu has said the Gaza City offensive can be stopped if Hamas agrees to a deal that fulfills all of Israel's demands. "If plan A -- surrender -- doesn't work, there will be plan B -- destruction," he said in an interview last week with Abu Ali Express, a pseudonymous Israeli analyst of Middle Eastern security affairs popular on social media.
Hamas now survives largely underground. An extensive tunnel system controlled by the group is still largely intact in Gaza City, though Israeli troops operated there in late 2023. It is in those tunnels that Israeli officials believe Ezzedin al-Haddad, the group's most senior leader, is hiding and at least some of the remaining Israeli hostages are being held.
Israeli officials argue that by taking control of the strip's capital, they will demonstrate Hamas is no longer the authority across the Palestinian territory. By stripping Hamas of its most important sanctuary, they hope to coax the U.S.-designated terrorist organization to agree to Israel's conditions for ending the war, which include giving up any operational or military control of the enclave.
"As long as Hamas keeps controlling the city of Gaza, in their eyes and in the eyes of Gaza, they are controlling the Gaza Strip, at least symbolically," said Kobi Michael, formerly with the Shin Bet, Israel's internal security agency, and now a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Israel has weakened Hamas in Gaza, including by killing almost all of its senior leadership. Arab officials who are in touch with the group say its organizational structure is in disarray. Hamas has also been under increasing financial constraints.
However, Hamas is still taking steps to keep its organizational structure together.
Avner Golov, a former senior director at Israel's National Security Council and now vice president of MIND Israel, a security-focused nonprofit in Tel Aviv, said Israel could defeat Hamas militarily, but that, without a political solution for Gaza's future, the group will challenge Israel again.
Without a political solution, "we are doomed to fail," he said.
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Few Signs of Militant Group in Key Enclave
Palestinian residents of Gaza City say they see few signs of Hamas on the streets. There are no uniformed police officers or fighters. Civil services are at a minimum, with the municipality struggling to maintain sanitation and provide clean drinking water. The public-health ministry is still running, and Hamas supervises prices and payment at some food markets.
It also maintains control of the population through a secret police and media arm, sending out videos of gruesome beatings of Gazans who they allege have stolen aid, are corrupt merchants or are cooperating with Israel.” [1]
One important thing is missing in this understanding: Israeli action made every baby in Gaza a potential Hamas member.
This statement reflects a serious and widely discussed concern that Israeli actions in Gaza, specifically the high number of civilian casualties and immense destruction, could foster long-term radicalization among the population. This sentiment has been expressed by commentators, analysts, and even some Israeli officials.
Arguments supporting this concern
High civilian casualties and trauma: Numerous analysts and international bodies have pointed out that the scale of death and destruction, including the thousands of children killed in Israeli military operations, creates deep trauma and immense suffering. Experts, including those from UNICEF and the UN, have raised alarms about the long-term mental and emotional toll this will take on Gaza's children. One humanitarian affairs chief for the UN described a "generation that has been traumatized".
Growing disillusionment and despair: The devastation and loss of life can lead to profound despair and a sense of hopelessness, particularly for a generation that has grown up under the Israeli blockade and now a devastating war. Some scholars argue that such conditions can make individuals more susceptible to extremist ideologies.
Reinforcement of Hamas's narrative: Some geopolitical experts believe that a military-only approach is counterproductive and may even benefit Hamas. The widespread suffering and destruction can be framed by militant groups as evidence that violence is the only effective means of resistance, potentially boosting their recruitment.
Precedent from other conflicts: Researchers who study radicalization note that a history of exposure to violence is a significant risk factor for committing violence. The trauma experienced by Gazan children is considered by some to be at a level that could contribute to future radicalization.
In May 2025, for example, former Knesset member Moshe Feiglin stated on Israeli television that "Every child, every baby in Gaza is an enemy" and that Gaza should be occupied and settled. He further claimed that "Every child you're giving milk to today will slaughter your children in 15 years".
While Feiglin's comments are widely condemned as extremist incitement and do not represent the official stance of the Israeli government, they illustrate the dehumanizing rhetoric that can circulate during the conflict.
International human rights bodies, such as the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child, have specifically addressed the high rates of child fatalities in Gaza and questioned the measures taken by Israel to protect civilians during military operations.
1. World News: Netanyahu's Gaza City Vow Is Familiar One --- Israeli leader has said at other points in war that Hamas was close to finished. Lieber, Dov; Said, Summer. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 12 Sep 2025: A8.
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