World News: As Hormuz Stakes Rise, Who Will Blink? --- Iran signals flexibility, while Trump seeks an upper hand by continuing blockade

“RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- The disruption of shipping from the Persian Gulf is inflicting increasing pain on America's Arab allies, on Iran and on the world economy.

 

The question is who suffers most -- and who will blink first.

 

Until Washington imposed the naval blockade of Iranian ports April 13, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz served as a trump card for the Iranian regime. Tehran cashed in on its own oil exports through the 40-day conflict, while depriving Gulf states of critical revenue and implementing a plan to collect hefty tolls from the few passing ships.

 

Now, as the U.S. and Iran maintain a fragile cease-fire while negotiating a much broader agreement on the nuclear issue that sparked the war, time doesn't necessarily work in Iran's favor anymore.

 

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi gave breathing room for the negotiations and spurred a sharp decline in oil prices by saying Friday that the strait will be "completely open" for the duration of the cease-fire, set to expire Tuesday.

 

Shipping, however, will be allowed only along a route designated by the Iranian military that goes through an inspection area in Iranian waters -- something that falls far short of fully opening the waterway, and doesn't necessarily mean Tehran renounces its claim to collect passage fees.

 

Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports "will remain in full force and effect" until a comprehensive deal with Tehran is reached, President Trump said on Truth Social shortly thereafter.

 

Iran's economy, in dire shape before the U.S. and Israel attacked on Feb. 28, has suffered from the bombing campaign, and is beginning to feel the pinch of the American blockade, as oil revenues and critical imports dry up.

 

"It seems that the United States wants the Iranian regime to taste its own medicine," said Saudi political analyst Salman al-Ansari. "The blockade strips the only card that the Iranians have -- the Strait of Hormuz -- as it forces the Iranian regime to go to the negotiating table."

 

Iranian and U.S. negotiators could meet again in coming days, and Trump said the sides are close to a deal under which Washington would secure Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, buried underground after the U.S. bombing run last summer.

 

Tehran hasn't challenged the U.S. blockade, but that doesn't mean it won't do so in coming days, especially if negotiations stall and the cease-fire expires without meaningful diplomatic progress.

 

A return to fighting is something Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia definitely don't want. Precision strikes by Iranian missiles and drones have inflicted heavy damage to their energy installations, such as refineries and petrochemical plants, while draining the reserves of air-defense interceptors.

 

Their preference is to keep the economic pressure on Iran -- but with the guns remaining silent.

 

At some point, however, as Iran's economic crisis intensifies, it will face a stark choice of whether to acquiesce to the proper reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, losing its negotiating leverage and ambition to collect tolls, or to challenge the U.S. blockade -- and risk a return to full-scale war.

 

A regional war reignited by Iran would make Tehran much more isolated in the rest of the world, as economies in Europe and Asia would be further squeezed.

 

"The idea that one country can control the Strait of Hormuz is anathema to every country in the world," said Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, assistant secretary-general for political and negotiation affairs at the Gulf Cooperation Council, which groups the six Gulf monarchies.

 

"The notion that the U.A.E. or Saudi Arabia have a higher pain tolerance than Iran only appears to be true because, right now, they are not being directly impacted by further attacks on critical infrastructure," said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar think tank. "Iran's assumption is that, on a long-enough time horizon, it is still going to be able to tolerate more pain than its regional neighbors and the U.S. I just don't see how, after eight years of maximum pressure sanctions, anything that the U.S. would do in terms of adding more economic pressure in the next few weeks meaningfully changes the calculations."

 

The coming weeks will tell whether Tehran's assumptions are right.

 

"The conflict is no longer about which side can strike more fixed targets," said Norman Roule, who served as the principal U.S. intelligence community's official on Iran matters from 2008 to 2017. "It is now a contest over who can keep the region's commercial system operating -- and who can disrupt it."” [1]

 

1. World News: As Hormuz Stakes Rise, Who Will Blink? --- Iran signals flexibility, while Trump seeks an upper hand by continuing blockade. Trofimov, Yaroslav.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Apr 2026: A6.