As War Drives Up Fuel Prices, Trump's Advisers Are Worried --- Aides want an end to Iran conflict ahead of midterms; airline lobby sounds alarm

“Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu delivered a warning to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a recent visit to Washington: Already-high airfares will surge if the war in Iran doesn't end soon.

 

Sununu, a Republican who represents some of the biggest carriers as president of the industry group Airlines for America, has for weeks sounded the alarm to Trump administration officials about the economic fallout from high jet-fuel prices. The war, Sununu has argued, must come to a close soon, or things will get worse.

 

Administration officials have gotten the message.

 

Privately, President Trump's advisers are increasingly worried that Republicans will pay a political price for spiking fuel costs, according to people familiar with the matter. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war in hopes that prices will begin moderating before the midterm elections in November.

 

The fallout from the U.S.-Israeli attack in late February has slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, triggering a sharp increase in oil, gasoline and jet-fuel prices. That means consumers are grappling with high costs ahead of the summer travel season, as they consider vacation plans.

 

Sixty-three percent of Americans said they put a great deal or a good amount of blame on Trump for the increase in gasoline prices, according to a new poll conducted by NPR, PBS and Marist. More than 8 in 10 Americans said struggles at the gas pump are putting strain on their finances.

 

Jet-fuel prices roughly doubled in a matter of weeks after the war began, and they have remained high. Airlines have said that will add billions of dollars of additional expenses this year, squeezing profit margins. U.S. airlines spent more than $5 billion on fuel in March -- up 30% from a year earlier, according to government data.

 

Carriers have been hiking ticket prices, hoping to pass the cost along to consumers, and they are culling flights that will no longer make money at higher price levels.

 

In March, the price of a U.S. domestic round-trip economy ticket rose 21% from a year earlier to $570, according to Airlines Reporting Corp., which tracks travel-agency sales. So far, airlines have said the higher fares haven't deterred bookings and that they are hoping to recoup more of the fuel cost increases as the year goes on.

 

Earlier this week, Trump, a Republican, said that the current price of oil is "a very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged."

 

 Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that if Iran got a nuclear weapon, the country would have more leverage to keep the strait closed and "make our gas prices like $9 a gallon or $8 a gallon."

 

Trump has taken steps in recent days to bring the war to an end. Late Tuesday, the president paused a plan to help guide trapped commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, expressing optimism that a deal could be reached with Iran to end the conflict.

 

Crude-oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday, following reports that Iran and the U.S. are working with mediators on a one-page framework to restart negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and opening the strait.

 

Sununu said Trump administration officials are conscious of the economic fallout from the war: "They get it, and I think that's why they're trying to get through the war as fast as they can."

 

But he cautioned that it could take months for prices to return to prewar levels. "Ticket prices won't go down immediately" after the strait is fully reopened, Sununu said. "You're looking at elevated ticket prices through the summer and fall because it takes a while for the prices to go down."

 

Since the initial U.S.-Israeli attack in late February, Sununu has met in Washington with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, representatives from the Transportation Department and senior White House officials. A White House official confirmed Hassett and Sununu have discussed the effect of increased fuel prices on the airline industry. The official said the conversation touched on how the industry can blunt the impact of high jet-fuel prices on consumers.

 

"The president and his entire energy team anticipated these short-term disruptions to the global energy markets from Operation Epic Fury and had a plan prepared to mitigate these disruptions," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said, pointing to the administration's decision to waive a century-old shipping law in a bid to lower the cost of moving oil. Rogers said the administration is working with industry representatives to "address their concerns, explore potential actions, and inform the president's policy decisions."

 

A Treasury Department spokesman pointed to Bessent's recent comments on Fox News that the U.S. economy remains strong despite price increases. The spokesman said Treasury officials have met with airline executives, who have reaffirmed strong ticket bookings.

 

"We're cognizant that this short-term move up in prices is affecting the American people, but I am also confident, on the other side of this, prices will come down very quickly," Bessent told Fox News on Monday.

 

The war has already contributed to one casualty in the industry: Spirit Airlines. Company representatives have said they were forced to shutter because the sustained surge in jet-fuel prices derailed its plan to emerge from chapter 11 bankruptcy. The Trump administration and Spirit failed to come to an agreement for the company to receive a financial lifeline of as much as $500 million from the federal government.

 

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has argued that the Iran war wasn't the cause of Spirit's demise.

 

Other budget airlines have also turned to the federal government for help since the U.S.-Israeli attack. A group of budget airlines last month sought $2.5 billion in financial assistance to offset higher fuel costs, and they separately wrote to lawmakers asking for relief from certain ticket taxes.” [1]

 

Swarms of cheap drones and missiles are all it takes to collect money for passing Hormuz. Iranians don’t need nuclear devices to do that. Driving, flying, and eating will never be the same.

 

The strategy of using low-cost drone swarms to control the Strait of Hormuz is described by analysts as Iran's "real nuclear option" because it imposes immediate, massive economic costs without requiring nuclear weapons. This "asymmetric warfare" leverages inexpensive hardware to cripple global trade and energy supplies.

Economic Warfare and "Collecting Money"

Iran uses these swarms to create a "money game" that drains the resources of its adversaries.

•           Cost Asymmetry: Iran's Shahed drones cost between $20,000 and $50,000, while the U.S. and allies use interceptors like the Patriot missile, which costs over $3 million per shot.

•           Strategic Leverage: By threatening to close the Strait, Iran forces the global economy to pay a "risk premium" through spiked oil prices and surging insurance rates for shipping.

•           Asset Depletion: The sheer volume of cheap drones aims to deplete expensive Western defense stockpiles, forcing a choice between financial exhaustion or allowing disruptions to stand.

Why "Driving, Flying, and Eating Will Never Be the Same"

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, 2026, triggered a "geoeconomic firestorm" with long-term impacts on daily life.

•           Driving:

o          Fuel Prices: Brent Crude surged past $120 per barrel following the closure.

o          At the Pump: Experts warn that U.S. gas prices could reach $5 a gallon or much more (see Rubio’s remarks) if the disruption continues.

•           Eating:

o          Fertilizer Shortages: About 25% of global fertilizer production passes through the Strait; stalled shipments are causing cascading effects on global food security and prices.

o          Supply Chain Shocks: Disruptions to food products and basic commodities are driving significant inflationary pressures.

•           Flying:

o          Airfreight Rates: As maritime routes become perilous, air cargo rates are rising sharply on Asia-Europe routes due to tightened capacity and prices of kerosine.

o          Global Logistics: The region acts as a primary logistics and fuel hub; its disruption is compared to pandemic-era supply chain shocks.

The current conflict has demonstrated that Iran can "slit the Achilles tendon of the global economy" using mass-produced drones that are difficult and expensive to stop. Even with U.S. military efforts to reopen the waterway, the persistent threat from a "shadow banking architecture" and mobile drone launchers makes a return to normal operations unlikely in the long and, particularly, short term.

 

 

1. As War Drives Up Fuel Prices, Trump's Advisers Are Worried --- Aides want an end to Iran conflict ahead of midterms; airline lobby sounds alarm. Schwartz, Brian; Sider, Alison.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 May 2026: A1.