Low-cost, precise missiles and drone swarms fundamentally disrupt modern warfare by inverting the cost-exchange ratio, forcing state militaries to deplete multimillion-dollar interceptors on targets that cost a fraction of the price.
Even without advanced AI, sheer volume and coordinated multi-axis attacks can successfully overwhelm traditional air defense systems.
Military and analytical data strongly confirm the dominance of massed uncrewed systems through several key realities:
• The Economics of Attrition: Interceptor missiles like the U.S. Patriot or THAAD system cost millions per shot, while a single Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drone or similar loitering munition costs between $20,000 and $50,000. In prolonged engagements, this massive financial disparity strains even the deepest superpower arsenals.
• Saturation of Defense Magazines: Traditional missile defenses are designed to handle tens or hundreds of high-value targets, not thousands of small, simultaneously arriving threats. During massive retaliatory strikes, saturation can easily exhaust defensive magazines and expose critical infrastructure.
• The "Blind Ballet" Alternative: True, fully communicative inter-drone swarms require significant technical complexity. However, attackers use uncoordinated flocking or independent "blind ballet" tactics, where hundreds of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) arrive at the same target zone from multiple directions at once, severely challenging tracking capabilities.
“WASHINGTON -- The Iranian ballistic missile attack on a Jordanian air base that killed two U.S. servicemembers struck prefabricated housing units where troops lived, said U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
The attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was one of three missile strikes on the base in 24 hours last week, which killed two soldiers from Army air and missile defense units, according to the officials. The remains of a third person were found at the location and are being examined.
That three missiles slipped through U.S. air defenses points to the challenges in protecting the 50,000 troops stationed in the region against an Iranian military that is still equipped with a substantial number of ballistic missiles and drones.
Iran has adapted to U.S. defenses, firing missiles that travel at extremely high speeds and can maneuver as they streak toward the earth, The Wall Street Journal has previously reported.
A spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, declined to comment on the damage caused by the Iranian attacks. Tehran has circulated satellite imagery on social-media accounts showing what it says is damage to the base, including what appears to be a housing area.
President Trump on Monday threatened U.S. retaliation for the strikes. Shortly afterward, the U.S. military said it launched a new round of strikes intended to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said that nearly 100 servicemembers have been injured since July 7. He said most of the injuries were concussions, and 96% of those hurt have returned to duty. Seventeen servicemembers have been killed in the war and an 18th is missing.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has assumed power in Tehran but hasn't been seen since the war began, warned in a statement of "unforgettable lessons" if the U.S. continues to strike.
While Iran has made efforts with missiles and drones to hit the crowded base, no evidence has been released by U.S. officials that shows Iran specifically targeted the servicemembers' quarters, known as "containerized housing units," in an effort to cause widespread casualties.
During the first of the three missile attacks on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, debris from the missile strike hit the base's gym, U.S. officials said. A siren signaling the incoming attack sounded in time for troops to try to shelter in the bunkers. Some were wounded on the way to the bunkers, but none were killed, officials said.
Hours later sirens sounded again, sending troops heading toward the bunkers. This time, an Iranian missile hit an empty aircraft hangar, officials said.
The third missile strike hit housing units, where soldiers were sleeping, the officials said. The sirens sounded for a third time, but not everyone made it to the bunkers.
The Pentagon identified the two air defenders who were killed as First Lt. Tyler J. Feehan of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales of Carrollton, Texas. A third servicemember, who hasn't been identified, is missing.
The strike was one of a series of attacks Tehran has directed in recent days at bases in Jordan that are being used by U.S. personnel.
In addition to the attacks on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Iran also struck King Faisal Air Base last week, where U.S. forces are based. Iranian forces also attacked a separate airfield in Jordan, where several U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopters were damaged, the Journal previously reported.” [1]
1. World News: Missile Hit Housing for U.S. Troops In Jordan. Gordon, Michael R; Seligman, Lara; Gramer, Robbie. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 July 2026: A6.
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